President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially raised trader attention around potential U.S. action at the Nevada National Security Site. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials, including the Energy Secretary, emphasized non-explosive or subcritical experiments consistent with the 1992 moratorium rather than full-yield detonations. The U.S. maintains technical readiness for underground explosive tests within 24-36 months but has conducted none since then, citing stockpile stewardship assessments that affirm safety without such tests. New START's February 2026 expiration and concerns over Chinese and Russian activities have sustained discussion, yet procedural, legal, and diplomatic barriers continue to limit near-term prospects for an explosive test.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$667,612 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年6月30日
2%
2026年9月30日
5%
2026年12月31日
9%
$667,612 交易量
2026年6月30日
$40,220 交易量
2%
2026年9月30日
$6,656 交易量
5%
2026年12月31日
$10,517 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially raised trader attention around potential U.S. action at the Nevada National Security Site. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials, including the Energy Secretary, emphasized non-explosive or subcritical experiments consistent with the 1992 moratorium rather than full-yield detonations. The U.S. maintains technical readiness for underground explosive tests within 24-36 months but has conducted none since then, citing stockpile stewardship assessments that affirm safety without such tests. New START's February 2026 expiration and concerns over Chinese and Russian activities have sustained discussion, yet procedural, legal, and diplomatic barriers continue to limit near-term prospects for an explosive test.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$667,612结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially raised trader attention around potential U.S. action at the Nevada National Security Site. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials, including the Energy Secretary, emphasized non-explosive or subcritical experiments consistent with the 1992 moratorium rather than full-yield detonations. The U.S. maintains technical readiness for underground explosive tests within 24-36 months but has conducted none since then, citing stockpile stewardship assessments that affirm safety without such tests. New START's February 2026 expiration and concerns over Chinese and Russian activities have sustained discussion, yet procedural, legal, and diplomatic barriers continue to limit near-term prospects for an explosive test.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$667,612结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially raised trader attention around potential U.S. action at the Nevada National Security Site. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials, including the Energy Secretary, emphasized non-explosive or subcritical experiments consistent with the 1992 moratorium rather than full-yield detonations. The U.S. maintains technical readiness for underground explosive tests within 24-36 months but has conducted none since then, citing stockpile stewardship assessments that affirm safety without such tests. New START's February 2026 expiration and concerns over Chinese and Russian activities have sustained discussion, yet procedural, legal, and diplomatic barriers continue to limit near-term prospects for an explosive test.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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