Anthropic holds an 82% market-implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of June, driven by the sustained dominance of its Claude Opus 4.6 through 4.8 large language models on key benchmarks and the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard. Recent releases, including Claude Opus 4.8 in late May, have extended leads in agentic coding, reasoning tasks like GPQA, and human preference evaluations, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro variants and OpenAI's GPT-5 family in composite intelligence indices. Traders view this edge as reflecting real capability gaps in instruction-following and practical deployment, with limited near-term catalysts expected to reverse the positioning before month-end absent major undisclosed updates from competitors.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 82.0%
谷歌 15%
OpenAI 3.4%
xAI <1%
$9,290,327 交易量
$9,290,327 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
82%
谷歌
15%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
<1%
微软
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美团
<1%
Meta
<1%
百度
<1%
Anthropic 82.0%
谷歌 15%
OpenAI 3.4%
xAI <1%
$9,290,327 交易量
$9,290,327 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$1,235,823 交易量
82%
谷歌
$806,001 交易量
15%
OpenAI
$687,105 交易量
3%
xAI
$1,310,234 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$490,768 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
$703,680 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
$652,516 交易量
<1%
微软
$376,918 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$329,884 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$321,821 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$582,439 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$546,299 交易量
<1%
美团
$575,946 交易量
<1%
Meta
$339,540 交易量
<1%
百度
$331,552 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds an 82% market-implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of June, driven by the sustained dominance of its Claude Opus 4.6 through 4.8 large language models on key benchmarks and the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard. Recent releases, including Claude Opus 4.8 in late May, have extended leads in agentic coding, reasoning tasks like GPQA, and human preference evaluations, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro variants and OpenAI's GPT-5 family in composite intelligence indices. Traders view this edge as reflecting real capability gaps in instruction-following and practical deployment, with limited near-term catalysts expected to reverse the positioning before month-end absent major undisclosed updates from competitors.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$9,290,327结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds an 82% market-implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of June, driven by the sustained dominance of its Claude Opus 4.6 through 4.8 large language models on key benchmarks and the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard. Recent releases, including Claude Opus 4.8 in late May, have extended leads in agentic coding, reasoning tasks like GPQA, and human preference evaluations, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro variants and OpenAI's GPT-5 family in composite intelligence indices. Traders view this edge as reflecting real capability gaps in instruction-following and practical deployment, with limited near-term catalysts expected to reverse the positioning before month-end absent major undisclosed updates from competitors.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$9,290,327结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic holds an 82% market-implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of June, driven by the sustained dominance of its Claude Opus 4.6 through 4.8 large language models on key benchmarks and the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard. Recent releases, including Claude Opus 4.8 in late May, have extended leads in agentic coding, reasoning tasks like GPQA, and human preference evaluations, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro variants and OpenAI's GPT-5 family in composite intelligence indices. Traders view this edge as reflecting real capability gaps in instruction-following and practical deployment, with limited near-term catalysts expected to reverse the positioning before month-end absent major undisclosed updates from competitors.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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