Apple’s established annual cadence of flagship smartphone releases, combined with multiple May 2026 reports confirming that iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable variants are targeted for a September launch window, underpins the market’s 96 percent implied probability for a 2026 debut. Traders view the company’s supply-chain discipline and historical adherence to fall timing as strong signals, even amid plans to stagger lower-tier models into 2027. While product timelines can slip due to manufacturing constraints or feature delays, and regulatory scrutiny around new hardware has occasionally extended certification, no credible signals point to a full-year postponement of the premium lineup at this stage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$111,498 交易量
$111,498 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$111,498 交易量
$111,498 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual cadence of flagship smartphone releases, combined with multiple May 2026 reports confirming that iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable variants are targeted for a September launch window, underpins the market’s 96 percent implied probability for a 2026 debut. Traders view the company’s supply-chain discipline and historical adherence to fall timing as strong signals, even amid plans to stagger lower-tier models into 2027. While product timelines can slip due to manufacturing constraints or feature delays, and regulatory scrutiny around new hardware has occasionally extended certification, no credible signals point to a full-year postponement of the premium lineup at this stage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
交易量
$111,498结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual cadence of flagship smartphone releases, combined with multiple May 2026 reports confirming that iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable variants are targeted for a September launch window, underpins the market’s 96 percent implied probability for a 2026 debut. Traders view the company’s supply-chain discipline and historical adherence to fall timing as strong signals, even amid plans to stagger lower-tier models into 2027. While product timelines can slip due to manufacturing constraints or feature delays, and regulatory scrutiny around new hardware has occasionally extended certification, no credible signals point to a full-year postponement of the premium lineup at this stage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$111,508结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s established annual cadence of flagship smartphone releases, combined with multiple May 2026 reports confirming that iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable variants are targeted for a September launch window, underpins the market’s 96 percent implied probability for a 2026 debut. Traders view the company’s supply-chain discipline and historical adherence to fall timing as strong signals, even amid plans to stagger lower-tier models into 2027. While product timelines can slip due to manufacturing constraints or feature delays, and regulatory scrutiny around new hardware has occasionally extended certification, no credible signals point to a full-year postponement of the premium lineup at this stage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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