SpaceX's advanced IPO preparations, including its public S-1 filing with the SEC on May 20, 2026, and a targeted mid-June listing, drive the 98.4% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The aerospace company, pursuing a record valuation near $1.75 trillion, has progressed far beyond confidential stages, while OpenAI remains in pre-filing discussions with bankers targeting a potential September debut at over $1 trillion. This timeline gap reflects SpaceX's regulatory momentum and operational readiness versus OpenAI's ongoing structural shifts and capital needs in the large language model space. Realistic factors that could alter the outcome include unexpected SEC delays for SpaceX or accelerated regulatory approvals enabling OpenAI to compress its schedule.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于SpaceX
$80,416 交易量
$80,416 交易量
2027-12-31
SpaceX
$80,416 交易量
$80,416 交易量
2027-12-31
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's advanced IPO preparations, including its public S-1 filing with the SEC on May 20, 2026, and a targeted mid-June listing, drive the 98.4% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The aerospace company, pursuing a record valuation near $1.75 trillion, has progressed far beyond confidential stages, while OpenAI remains in pre-filing discussions with bankers targeting a potential September debut at over $1 trillion. This timeline gap reflects SpaceX's regulatory momentum and operational readiness versus OpenAI's ongoing structural shifts and capital needs in the large language model space. Realistic factors that could alter the outcome include unexpected SEC delays for SpaceX or accelerated regulatory approvals enabling OpenAI to compress its schedule.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
交易量
$80,416结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's advanced IPO preparations, including its public S-1 filing with the SEC on May 20, 2026, and a targeted mid-June listing, drive the 98.4% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The aerospace company, pursuing a record valuation near $1.75 trillion, has progressed far beyond confidential stages, while OpenAI remains in pre-filing discussions with bankers targeting a potential September debut at over $1 trillion. This timeline gap reflects SpaceX's regulatory momentum and operational readiness versus OpenAI's ongoing structural shifts and capital needs in the large language model space. Realistic factors that could alter the outcome include unexpected SEC delays for SpaceX or accelerated regulatory approvals enabling OpenAI to compress its schedule.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$80,416结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's advanced IPO preparations, including its public S-1 filing with the SEC on May 20, 2026, and a targeted mid-June listing, drive the 98.4% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The aerospace company, pursuing a record valuation near $1.75 trillion, has progressed far beyond confidential stages, while OpenAI remains in pre-filing discussions with bankers targeting a potential September debut at over $1 trillion. This timeline gap reflects SpaceX's regulatory momentum and operational readiness versus OpenAI's ongoing structural shifts and capital needs in the large language model space. Realistic factors that could alter the outcome include unexpected SEC delays for SpaceX or accelerated regulatory approvals enabling OpenAI to compress its schedule.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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