SpaceX's advanced preparations for a June 2026 listing drive the market's near-certain 98.4% implied probability that it will reach public markets before OpenAI. The company filed its public S-1 on May 20 targeting a Nasdaq debut around June 12 under ticker SPCX, following December 2025 confirmation of plans for a multibillion-dollar raise at valuations exceeding $1 trillion. OpenAI, by contrast, only began confidential filing preparations in May with bankers, aiming for a September or Q4 window at up to $1 trillion. While SpaceX's timeline appears locked in, realistic disruptions such as extended SEC reviews, volatile market conditions, or last-minute adjustments to its roadshow could still allow OpenAI to close the gap if its process accelerates unexpectedly.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于SpaceX
$80,416 交易量
$80,416 交易量
2027-12-31
SpaceX
$80,416 交易量
$80,416 交易量
2027-12-31
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's advanced preparations for a June 2026 listing drive the market's near-certain 98.4% implied probability that it will reach public markets before OpenAI. The company filed its public S-1 on May 20 targeting a Nasdaq debut around June 12 under ticker SPCX, following December 2025 confirmation of plans for a multibillion-dollar raise at valuations exceeding $1 trillion. OpenAI, by contrast, only began confidential filing preparations in May with bankers, aiming for a September or Q4 window at up to $1 trillion. While SpaceX's timeline appears locked in, realistic disruptions such as extended SEC reviews, volatile market conditions, or last-minute adjustments to its roadshow could still allow OpenAI to close the gap if its process accelerates unexpectedly.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
交易量
$80,416结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's advanced preparations for a June 2026 listing drive the market's near-certain 98.4% implied probability that it will reach public markets before OpenAI. The company filed its public S-1 on May 20 targeting a Nasdaq debut around June 12 under ticker SPCX, following December 2025 confirmation of plans for a multibillion-dollar raise at valuations exceeding $1 trillion. OpenAI, by contrast, only began confidential filing preparations in May with bankers, aiming for a September or Q4 window at up to $1 trillion. While SpaceX's timeline appears locked in, realistic disruptions such as extended SEC reviews, volatile market conditions, or last-minute adjustments to its roadshow could still allow OpenAI to close the gap if its process accelerates unexpectedly.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$80,416结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's advanced preparations for a June 2026 listing drive the market's near-certain 98.4% implied probability that it will reach public markets before OpenAI. The company filed its public S-1 on May 20 targeting a Nasdaq debut around June 12 under ticker SPCX, following December 2025 confirmation of plans for a multibillion-dollar raise at valuations exceeding $1 trillion. OpenAI, by contrast, only began confidential filing preparations in May with bankers, aiming for a September or Q4 window at up to $1 trillion. While SpaceX's timeline appears locked in, realistic disruptions such as extended SEC reviews, volatile market conditions, or last-minute adjustments to its roadshow could still allow OpenAI to close the gap if its process accelerates unexpectedly.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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