Tesla’s February 2026 clarification from Elon Musk that customer deliveries of the steering-wheel-free Cybercab at or below $30,000 would target 2027 rather than 2026 has anchored trader consensus at roughly 75 percent “No.” Low-volume production is scheduled to begin in April 2026 at Giga Texas, yet achieving the target price requires mature unsupervised full self-driving capability, next-generation AI hardware expected only in mid-2027 volume, and regulatory approval for operation without manual controls. Historical autonomy timeline slips and supply-chain constraints for the purpose-built robotaxi design reinforce doubts that any retail sale meeting the strict resolution criteria will occur by year-end 2026. Key near-term catalysts include Q2 production updates and any meaningful FSD regulatory progress.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$36,479 交易量
$36,479 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$36,479 交易量
$36,479 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s February 2026 clarification from Elon Musk that customer deliveries of the steering-wheel-free Cybercab at or below $30,000 would target 2027 rather than 2026 has anchored trader consensus at roughly 75 percent “No.” Low-volume production is scheduled to begin in April 2026 at Giga Texas, yet achieving the target price requires mature unsupervised full self-driving capability, next-generation AI hardware expected only in mid-2027 volume, and regulatory approval for operation without manual controls. Historical autonomy timeline slips and supply-chain constraints for the purpose-built robotaxi design reinforce doubts that any retail sale meeting the strict resolution criteria will occur by year-end 2026. Key near-term catalysts include Q2 production updates and any meaningful FSD regulatory progress.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
交易量
$36,479结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s February 2026 clarification from Elon Musk that customer deliveries of the steering-wheel-free Cybercab at or below $30,000 would target 2027 rather than 2026 has anchored trader consensus at roughly 75 percent “No.” Low-volume production is scheduled to begin in April 2026 at Giga Texas, yet achieving the target price requires mature unsupervised full self-driving capability, next-generation AI hardware expected only in mid-2027 volume, and regulatory approval for operation without manual controls. Historical autonomy timeline slips and supply-chain constraints for the purpose-built robotaxi design reinforce doubts that any retail sale meeting the strict resolution criteria will occur by year-end 2026. Key near-term catalysts include Q2 production updates and any meaningful FSD regulatory progress.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$36,479结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla’s February 2026 clarification from Elon Musk that customer deliveries of the steering-wheel-free Cybercab at or below $30,000 would target 2027 rather than 2026 has anchored trader consensus at roughly 75 percent “No.” Low-volume production is scheduled to begin in April 2026 at Giga Texas, yet achieving the target price requires mature unsupervised full self-driving capability, next-generation AI hardware expected only in mid-2027 volume, and regulatory approval for operation without manual controls. Historical autonomy timeline slips and supply-chain constraints for the purpose-built robotaxi design reinforce doubts that any retail sale meeting the strict resolution criteria will occur by year-end 2026. Key near-term catalysts include Q2 production updates and any meaningful FSD regulatory progress.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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