Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and Iranian Revolutionary Guard oversight have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at a small fraction of pre-2026 conflict levels, with daily movements limited to a handful of mostly neutral or Iran-linked vessels amid blockades, mine risks, and interdictions. As of late May 2026, vessel tracking data show erratic but active traffic, including a reported daily peak near 35 transits around May 25 and Iran-coordinated passages of up to 26 vessels in a 24-hour period earlier in the month, alongside US naval guidance that has enabled modest increases in outbound movements. These conditions have sustained low weekly totals consistent with the leading 25-49 outcome range, while full recovery remains blocked by unresolved diplomatic and security constraints. Trader positioning reflects the limited scope for higher volumes without a verified de-escalation agreement within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月25日的一周有多少艘船只经过霍尔木兹海峡？
5月25日的一周有多少艘船只经过霍尔木兹海峡？
25-49 67%
少于25 20%
50-74 3.6%
100+ 1.5%
$159,313 交易量
$159,313 交易量
2026-06-01
少于25
23%
25-49
67%
50-74
4%
75-99
1%
100+
2%
25-49 67%
少于25 20%
50-74 3.6%
100+ 1.5%
$159,313 交易量
$159,313 交易量
2026-06-01
少于25
$62,251 交易量
23%
25-49
$26,914 交易量
67%
50-74
$31,514 交易量
4%
75-99
$18,863 交易量
1%
100+
$20,073 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 25, 2026, through June 1, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which data is released for the final date in that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if data has not been released for any day in the specified period within 14 calendar days of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which data is released for the final date in the specified period to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and Iranian Revolutionary Guard oversight have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at a small fraction of pre-2026 conflict levels, with daily movements limited to a handful of mostly neutral or Iran-linked vessels amid blockades, mine risks, and interdictions. As of late May 2026, vessel tracking data show erratic but active traffic, including a reported daily peak near 35 transits around May 25 and Iran-coordinated passages of up to 26 vessels in a 24-hour period earlier in the month, alongside US naval guidance that has enabled modest increases in outbound movements. These conditions have sustained low weekly totals consistent with the leading 25-49 outcome range, while full recovery remains blocked by unresolved diplomatic and security constraints. Trader positioning reflects the limited scope for higher volumes without a verified de-escalation agreement within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 25, 2026, through June 1, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which data is released for the final date in that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if data has not been released for any day in the specified period within 14 calendar days of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which data is released for the final date in the specified period to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which data is released for the final date in that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if data has not been released for any day in the specified period within 14 calendar days of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which data is released for the final date in the specified period to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： May 22, 2026, 5:05 PM ET
交易量
$159,313结束日期
2026-06-01市场开放时间
May 22, 2026, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 25, 2026, through June 1, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which data is released for the final date in that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if data has not been released for any day in the specified period within 14 calendar days of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which data is released for the final date in the specified period to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and Iranian Revolutionary Guard oversight have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at a small fraction of pre-2026 conflict levels, with daily movements limited to a handful of mostly neutral or Iran-linked vessels amid blockades, mine risks, and interdictions. As of late May 2026, vessel tracking data show erratic but active traffic, including a reported daily peak near 35 transits around May 25 and Iran-coordinated passages of up to 26 vessels in a 24-hour period earlier in the month, alongside US naval guidance that has enabled modest increases in outbound movements. These conditions have sustained low weekly totals consistent with the leading 25-49 outcome range, while full recovery remains blocked by unresolved diplomatic and security constraints. Trader positioning reflects the limited scope for higher volumes without a verified de-escalation agreement within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 25, 2026, through June 1, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which data is released for the final date in that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if data has not been released for any day in the specified period within 14 calendar days of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which data is released for the final date in the specified period to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which data is released for the final date in that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if data has not been released for any day in the specified period within 14 calendar days of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which data is released for the final date in the specified period to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$159,313结束日期
2026-06-01市场开放时间
May 22, 2026, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and Iranian Revolutionary Guard oversight have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at a small fraction of pre-2026 conflict levels, with daily movements limited to a handful of mostly neutral or Iran-linked vessels amid blockades, mine risks, and interdictions. As of late May 2026, vessel tracking data show erratic but active traffic, including a reported daily peak near 35 transits around May 25 and Iran-coordinated passages of up to 26 vessels in a 24-hour period earlier in the month, alongside US naval guidance that has enabled modest increases in outbound movements. These conditions have sustained low weekly totals consistent with the leading 25-49 outcome range, while full recovery remains blocked by unresolved diplomatic and security constraints. Trader positioning reflects the limited scope for higher volumes without a verified de-escalation agreement within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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