Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks prompted immediate closure of Israeli airspace, alongside shutdowns across much of the Middle East. A US-brokered ceasefire took effect in early April, reducing immediate threats and allowing gradual reopening of civilian flight operations. More recent developments through May 2026, including Israeli operations in Lebanon and renewed US-Iran exchanges, have sustained trader focus on escalation risks. Key factors influencing sentiment include missile defense performance, diplomatic negotiations, and any new strikes or proxy attacks that could trigger fresh closures. Scheduled diplomatic updates and military posture assessments remain potential near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$4,301,393 交易量
2026-06-15
June 15
7%
6月30日
15%
$4,301,393 交易量
June 15
$459,235 交易量
7%
6月30日
$266,154 交易量
15%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks prompted immediate closure of Israeli airspace, alongside shutdowns across much of the Middle East. A US-brokered ceasefire took effect in early April, reducing immediate threats and allowing gradual reopening of civilian flight operations. More recent developments through May 2026, including Israeli operations in Lebanon and renewed US-Iran exchanges, have sustained trader focus on escalation risks. Key factors influencing sentiment include missile defense performance, diplomatic negotiations, and any new strikes or proxy attacks that could trigger fresh closures. Scheduled diplomatic updates and military posture assessments remain potential near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
交易量
$4,301,393结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks prompted immediate closure of Israeli airspace, alongside shutdowns across much of the Middle East. A US-brokered ceasefire took effect in early April, reducing immediate threats and allowing gradual reopening of civilian flight operations. More recent developments through May 2026, including Israeli operations in Lebanon and renewed US-Iran exchanges, have sustained trader focus on escalation risks. Key factors influencing sentiment include missile defense performance, diplomatic negotiations, and any new strikes or proxy attacks that could trigger fresh closures. Scheduled diplomatic updates and military posture assessments remain potential near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$4,301,393结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks prompted immediate closure of Israeli airspace, alongside shutdowns across much of the Middle East. A US-brokered ceasefire took effect in early April, reducing immediate threats and allowing gradual reopening of civilian flight operations. More recent developments through May 2026, including Israeli operations in Lebanon and renewed US-Iran exchanges, have sustained trader focus on escalation risks. Key factors influencing sentiment include missile defense performance, diplomatic negotiations, and any new strikes or proxy attacks that could trigger fresh closures. Scheduled diplomatic updates and military posture assessments remain potential near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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