Recent developments in the 2026 Iran war and subsequent ceasefire have centered on U.S.-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan, including a conditional truce since early April that reopened limited Strait of Hormuz traffic and addressed nuclear concerns. Israel has coordinated with the United States on core demands such as limits on Iranian enrichment, removal of enriched uranium, missile restrictions, and reduced support for proxies like Hezbollah, while continuing operations in Lebanon that have complicated talks. Iranian officials recently suspended discussions over those Israeli actions, and no direct bilateral agreement between Israel and Iran has been reached. Upcoming diplomatic deadlines and any extension of the U.S.-brokered framework could influence prospects for a lasting resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$4,327,566 交易量
2026-06-30
6月30日
8%
$4,327,566 交易量
6月30日
$1,311,977 交易量
8%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments in the 2026 Iran war and subsequent ceasefire have centered on U.S.-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan, including a conditional truce since early April that reopened limited Strait of Hormuz traffic and addressed nuclear concerns. Israel has coordinated with the United States on core demands such as limits on Iranian enrichment, removal of enriched uranium, missile restrictions, and reduced support for proxies like Hezbollah, while continuing operations in Lebanon that have complicated talks. Iranian officials recently suspended discussions over those Israeli actions, and no direct bilateral agreement between Israel and Iran has been reached. Upcoming diplomatic deadlines and any extension of the U.S.-brokered framework could influence prospects for a lasting resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
交易量
$4,327,566结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments in the 2026 Iran war and subsequent ceasefire have centered on U.S.-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan, including a conditional truce since early April that reopened limited Strait of Hormuz traffic and addressed nuclear concerns. Israel has coordinated with the United States on core demands such as limits on Iranian enrichment, removal of enriched uranium, missile restrictions, and reduced support for proxies like Hezbollah, while continuing operations in Lebanon that have complicated talks. Iranian officials recently suspended discussions over those Israeli actions, and no direct bilateral agreement between Israel and Iran has been reached. Upcoming diplomatic deadlines and any extension of the U.S.-brokered framework could influence prospects for a lasting resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$4,327,566结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments in the 2026 Iran war and subsequent ceasefire have centered on U.S.-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan, including a conditional truce since early April that reopened limited Strait of Hormuz traffic and addressed nuclear concerns. Israel has coordinated with the United States on core demands such as limits on Iranian enrichment, removal of enriched uranium, missile restrictions, and reduced support for proxies like Hezbollah, while continuing operations in Lebanon that have complicated talks. Iranian officials recently suspended discussions over those Israeli actions, and no direct bilateral agreement between Israel and Iran has been reached. Upcoming diplomatic deadlines and any extension of the U.S.-brokered framework could influence prospects for a lasting resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题