Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits well below the historical daily average of 80–130 vessels. Commercial traffic fell to single digits or zero on multiple days in April and early May amid Iranian restrictions, attacks, and insurance withdrawals, stranding hundreds of tankers and elevating oil price volatility with Brent crude recently trading near $97 per barrel. Late-May U.S. naval navigation assistance facilitated a modest rebound, with daily peaks reaching 35 transits and roughly 70 vessels guided over three weeks, though volumes remained erratic and far short of pre-conflict levels. These developments have shaped trader assessments of cumulative throughput through May 31 by highlighting persistent chokepoint risks, Iranian operational influence, and limited recovery in energy shipping flows.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$2,152,953 交易量
2026-05-31
20+
3%
40+
<1%
60+
<1%
80+
<1%
$2,152,953 交易量
20+
$480,273 交易量
3%
40+
$448,957 交易量
<1%
60+
$403,533 交易量
<1%
80+
$820,394 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits well below the historical daily average of 80–130 vessels. Commercial traffic fell to single digits or zero on multiple days in April and early May amid Iranian restrictions, attacks, and insurance withdrawals, stranding hundreds of tankers and elevating oil price volatility with Brent crude recently trading near $97 per barrel. Late-May U.S. naval navigation assistance facilitated a modest rebound, with daily peaks reaching 35 transits and roughly 70 vessels guided over three weeks, though volumes remained erratic and far short of pre-conflict levels. These developments have shaped trader assessments of cumulative throughput through May 31 by highlighting persistent chokepoint risks, Iranian operational influence, and limited recovery in energy shipping flows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
交易量
$2,152,953结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits well below the historical daily average of 80–130 vessels. Commercial traffic fell to single digits or zero on multiple days in April and early May amid Iranian restrictions, attacks, and insurance withdrawals, stranding hundreds of tankers and elevating oil price volatility with Brent crude recently trading near $97 per barrel. Late-May U.S. naval navigation assistance facilitated a modest rebound, with daily peaks reaching 35 transits and roughly 70 vessels guided over three weeks, though volumes remained erratic and far short of pre-conflict levels. These developments have shaped trader assessments of cumulative throughput through May 31 by highlighting persistent chokepoint risks, Iranian operational influence, and limited recovery in energy shipping flows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$2,152,953结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits well below the historical daily average of 80–130 vessels. Commercial traffic fell to single digits or zero on multiple days in April and early May amid Iranian restrictions, attacks, and insurance withdrawals, stranding hundreds of tankers and elevating oil price volatility with Brent crude recently trading near $97 per barrel. Late-May U.S. naval navigation assistance facilitated a modest rebound, with daily peaks reaching 35 transits and roughly 70 vessels guided over three weeks, though volumes remained erratic and far short of pre-conflict levels. These developments have shaped trader assessments of cumulative throughput through May 31 by highlighting persistent chokepoint risks, Iranian operational influence, and limited recovery in energy shipping flows.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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