US-brokered negotiations produced a 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon starting April 16, 2026, later extended through mid-June to facilitate talks on border security, Lebanese sovereignty enforcement, and Hezbollah disarmament. Direct Washington meetings advanced these issues, with a June 1 US proposal yielding a further limited ceasefire under which Israel pledged to avoid strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs and Hezbollah committed to halting attacks on Israel. These steps build on prior temporary halts but occur amid periodic violations, ongoing Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah's retained military capabilities backed by Iranian support. Permanent resolution would require sustained Lebanese army deployment to prevent cross-border threats and verifiable long-term commitments from all parties, with additional diplomatic rounds scheduled in the coming weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$2,189,303 交易量
2026-06-15
June 15
8%
June 30
16%
$2,189,303 交易量
June 15
$333,437 交易量
8%
June 30
$147,001 交易量
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-brokered negotiations produced a 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon starting April 16, 2026, later extended through mid-June to facilitate talks on border security, Lebanese sovereignty enforcement, and Hezbollah disarmament. Direct Washington meetings advanced these issues, with a June 1 US proposal yielding a further limited ceasefire under which Israel pledged to avoid strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs and Hezbollah committed to halting attacks on Israel. These steps build on prior temporary halts but occur amid periodic violations, ongoing Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah's retained military capabilities backed by Iranian support. Permanent resolution would require sustained Lebanese army deployment to prevent cross-border threats and verifiable long-term commitments from all parties, with additional diplomatic rounds scheduled in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 25, 2026, 11:16 AM ET
交易量
$2,189,303结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 25, 2026, 11:16 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-brokered negotiations produced a 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon starting April 16, 2026, later extended through mid-June to facilitate talks on border security, Lebanese sovereignty enforcement, and Hezbollah disarmament. Direct Washington meetings advanced these issues, with a June 1 US proposal yielding a further limited ceasefire under which Israel pledged to avoid strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs and Hezbollah committed to halting attacks on Israel. These steps build on prior temporary halts but occur amid periodic violations, ongoing Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah's retained military capabilities backed by Iranian support. Permanent resolution would require sustained Lebanese army deployment to prevent cross-border threats and verifiable long-term commitments from all parties, with additional diplomatic rounds scheduled in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,189,303结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 25, 2026, 11:16 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-brokered negotiations produced a 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon starting April 16, 2026, later extended through mid-June to facilitate talks on border security, Lebanese sovereignty enforcement, and Hezbollah disarmament. Direct Washington meetings advanced these issues, with a June 1 US proposal yielding a further limited ceasefire under which Israel pledged to avoid strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs and Hezbollah committed to halting attacks on Israel. These steps build on prior temporary halts but occur amid periodic violations, ongoing Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah's retained military capabilities backed by Iranian support. Permanent resolution would require sustained Lebanese army deployment to prevent cross-border threats and verifiable long-term commitments from all parties, with additional diplomatic rounds scheduled in the coming weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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