SpaceX's Starship program continues its deliberate test cadence into 2026, with only Flight 12 completed so far in late May using the new V3 Block 3 hardware and second orbital launch pad. This outcome reinforces trader consensus around fewer than five successful space-reaching flights for the year, driven by extended intervals between tests, FAA licensing timelines, and the need for incremental validation of reusability features like booster and ship catches. Historical patterns from 2025, when just five flights occurred amid repeated setbacks, further support the leading <5 outcome at 57.5% implied probability, while upcoming Flight 13 and potential refueling or catch demonstrations represent key near-term catalysts that could accelerate progress if approvals align.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于少于5次 57%
5-6 20%
7-8 5.0%
9-10 4.0%
$459,191 交易量
$459,191 交易量
2026-12-31
少于5次
57%
5-6
20%
7-8
5%
9-10
4%
11-12
4%
13-14
3%
15-16
1%
>16
3%
少于5次 57%
5-6 20%
7-8 5.0%
9-10 4.0%
$459,191 交易量
$459,191 交易量
2026-12-31
少于5次
$92,044 交易量
57%
5-6
$109,094 交易量
20%
7-8
$153,257 交易量
5%
9-10
$56,880 交易量
4%
11-12
$4,780 交易量
4%
13-14
$6,421 交易量
3%
15-16
$26,385 交易量
1%
>16
$10,329 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's Starship program continues its deliberate test cadence into 2026, with only Flight 12 completed so far in late May using the new V3 Block 3 hardware and second orbital launch pad. This outcome reinforces trader consensus around fewer than five successful space-reaching flights for the year, driven by extended intervals between tests, FAA licensing timelines, and the need for incremental validation of reusability features like booster and ship catches. Historical patterns from 2025, when just five flights occurred amid repeated setbacks, further support the leading <5 outcome at 57.5% implied probability, while upcoming Flight 13 and potential refueling or catch demonstrations represent key near-term catalysts that could accelerate progress if approvals align.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
交易量
$459,191结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's Starship program continues its deliberate test cadence into 2026, with only Flight 12 completed so far in late May using the new V3 Block 3 hardware and second orbital launch pad. This outcome reinforces trader consensus around fewer than five successful space-reaching flights for the year, driven by extended intervals between tests, FAA licensing timelines, and the need for incremental validation of reusability features like booster and ship catches. Historical patterns from 2025, when just five flights occurred amid repeated setbacks, further support the leading <5 outcome at 57.5% implied probability, while upcoming Flight 13 and potential refueling or catch demonstrations represent key near-term catalysts that could accelerate progress if approvals align.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$459,191结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's Starship program continues its deliberate test cadence into 2026, with only Flight 12 completed so far in late May using the new V3 Block 3 hardware and second orbital launch pad. This outcome reinforces trader consensus around fewer than five successful space-reaching flights for the year, driven by extended intervals between tests, FAA licensing timelines, and the need for incremental validation of reusability features like booster and ship catches. Historical patterns from 2025, when just five flights occurred amid repeated setbacks, further support the leading <5 outcome at 57.5% implied probability, while upcoming Flight 13 and potential refueling or catch demonstrations represent key near-term catalysts that could accelerate progress if approvals align.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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