Recent Q1 2026 deliveries of approximately 358,000 vehicles fell short of analyst targets amid intensifying global EV competition and fading U.S. incentives, anchoring trader expectations for only modest sequential growth in Q2. This dynamic concentrates implied probability in the 425k–475k range, where the closely matched leading outcomes reflect uncertainty over production ramps at key factories and potential demand shifts ahead of any refreshed models or robotaxi milestones. Broader platform dynamics, including energy storage deployments and full self-driving software progress, add secondary variables that could influence final volume without altering the core EV sales trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于42.5万–45万 29%
45万–47.5万 26.1%
475,000+ 23.0%
35万–37.5万 10.0%
$58,170 交易量
$58,170 交易量
2026-06-30
少于30万
2%
30万–32.5万
1%
32.5万–35万
2%
35万–37.5万
10%
375,000–400,000
9%
40万–42.5万
10%
42.5万–45万
29%
45万–47.5万
26%
475,000+
23%
42.5万–45万 29%
45万–47.5万 26.1%
475,000+ 23.0%
35万–37.5万 10.0%
$58,170 交易量
$58,170 交易量
2026-06-30
少于30万
$6,186 交易量
2%
30万–32.5万
$3,935 交易量
1%
32.5万–35万
$4,127 交易量
2%
35万–37.5万
$11,279 交易量
10%
375,000–400,000
$7,280 交易量
9%
40万–42.5万
$9,552 交易量
10%
42.5万–45万
$5,811 交易量
29%
45万–47.5万
$5,443 交易量
26%
475,000+
$4,556 交易量
23%
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Recent Q1 2026 deliveries of approximately 358,000 vehicles fell short of analyst targets amid intensifying global EV competition and fading U.S. incentives, anchoring trader expectations for only modest sequential growth in Q2. This dynamic concentrates implied probability in the 425k–475k range, where the closely matched leading outcomes reflect uncertainty over production ramps at key factories and potential demand shifts ahead of any refreshed models or robotaxi milestones. Broader platform dynamics, including energy storage deployments and full self-driving software progress, add secondary variables that could influence final volume without altering the core EV sales trajectory.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
市场开放时间： Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
交易量
$58,170结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Recent Q1 2026 deliveries of approximately 358,000 vehicles fell short of analyst targets amid intensifying global EV competition and fading U.S. incentives, anchoring trader expectations for only modest sequential growth in Q2. This dynamic concentrates implied probability in the 425k–475k range, where the closely matched leading outcomes reflect uncertainty over production ramps at key factories and potential demand shifts ahead of any refreshed models or robotaxi milestones. Broader platform dynamics, including energy storage deployments and full self-driving software progress, add secondary variables that could influence final volume without altering the core EV sales trajectory.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
交易量
$58,170结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q1 2026 deliveries of approximately 358,000 vehicles fell short of analyst targets amid intensifying global EV competition and fading U.S. incentives, anchoring trader expectations for only modest sequential growth in Q2. This dynamic concentrates implied probability in the 425k–475k range, where the closely matched leading outcomes reflect uncertainty over production ramps at key factories and potential demand shifts ahead of any refreshed models or robotaxi milestones. Broader platform dynamics, including energy storage deployments and full self-driving software progress, add secondary variables that could influence final volume without altering the core EV sales trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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