Recent tentative US-Iran understandings on a 60-day ceasefire extension and framework for nuclear talks have created momentum toward structured negotiations on enrichment limits, highly enriched uranium stockpiles, sanctions relief, and verification, yet core gaps persist amid President Trump's demands for irreversible curbs and Iranian resistance to immediate concessions. Mediated discussions involving Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan continue with back-and-forth revisions, following earlier 2026 rounds that yielded only temporary pauses in conflict rather than comprehensive accords. Trader consensus at 52% for no deal by July 31 reflects the tight timeline for bridging these differences and securing final approvals, balanced against the risk that rapid progress on the memorandum could accelerate outcomes within the window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$102,629 交易量
$102,629 交易量
2026-07-31
$102,629 交易量
$102,629 交易量
2026-07-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent tentative US-Iran understandings on a 60-day ceasefire extension and framework for nuclear talks have created momentum toward structured negotiations on enrichment limits, highly enriched uranium stockpiles, sanctions relief, and verification, yet core gaps persist amid President Trump's demands for irreversible curbs and Iranian resistance to immediate concessions. Mediated discussions involving Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan continue with back-and-forth revisions, following earlier 2026 rounds that yielded only temporary pauses in conflict rather than comprehensive accords. Trader consensus at 52% for no deal by July 31 reflects the tight timeline for bridging these differences and securing final approvals, balanced against the risk that rapid progress on the memorandum could accelerate outcomes within the window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市场开放时间： May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
交易量
$102,629结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent tentative US-Iran understandings on a 60-day ceasefire extension and framework for nuclear talks have created momentum toward structured negotiations on enrichment limits, highly enriched uranium stockpiles, sanctions relief, and verification, yet core gaps persist amid President Trump's demands for irreversible curbs and Iranian resistance to immediate concessions. Mediated discussions involving Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan continue with back-and-forth revisions, following earlier 2026 rounds that yielded only temporary pauses in conflict rather than comprehensive accords. Trader consensus at 52% for no deal by July 31 reflects the tight timeline for bridging these differences and securing final approvals, balanced against the risk that rapid progress on the memorandum could accelerate outcomes within the window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$102,629结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent tentative US-Iran understandings on a 60-day ceasefire extension and framework for nuclear talks have created momentum toward structured negotiations on enrichment limits, highly enriched uranium stockpiles, sanctions relief, and verification, yet core gaps persist amid President Trump's demands for irreversible curbs and Iranian resistance to immediate concessions. Mediated discussions involving Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan continue with back-and-forth revisions, following earlier 2026 rounds that yielded only temporary pauses in conflict rather than comprehensive accords. Trader consensus at 52% for no deal by July 31 reflects the tight timeline for bridging these differences and securing final approvals, balanced against the risk that rapid progress on the memorandum could accelerate outcomes within the window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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