Stripe’s 98.9% market-implied probability of no IPO by June 30, 2026 stems from the company’s repeated use of large secondary tender offers—most recently a February 2026 transaction valuing it at $159 billion—to deliver liquidity to employees and shareholders without pursuing a public listing. Leadership, including co-founder John Collison, has explicitly stated the firm is “in no rush” to go public, prioritizing long-term growth amid rising payment volumes and sustained profitability. With roughly four weeks remaining until the deadline and no S-1 filing or formal announcement, the window for a June close has effectively closed. An abrupt regulatory filing or surprise deal announcement could still shift odds, though historical precedent and current positioning make such outcomes remote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年6月30日前不进行IPO 98.8%
1400亿美元以上 <1%
低于800亿美元 <1%
1000–1200亿 <1%
$182,218 交易量
$182,218 交易量
2026-06-30
低于800亿美元
<1%
800–1000亿美元
<1%
1000–1200亿
<1%
1200–1400亿
<1%
1400亿美元以上
1%
2026年6月30日前不进行IPO
99%
2026年6月30日前不进行IPO 98.8%
1400亿美元以上 <1%
低于800亿美元 <1%
1000–1200亿 <1%
$182,218 交易量
$182,218 交易量
2026-06-30
低于800亿美元
$75,079 交易量
<1%
800–1000亿美元
$16,204 交易量
<1%
1000–1200亿
$17,295 交易量
<1%
1200–1400亿
$34,075 交易量
<1%
1400亿美元以上
$15,580 交易量
1%
2026年6月30日前不进行IPO
$23,987 交易量
99%
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Stripe’s 98.9% market-implied probability of no IPO by June 30, 2026 stems from the company’s repeated use of large secondary tender offers—most recently a February 2026 transaction valuing it at $159 billion—to deliver liquidity to employees and shareholders without pursuing a public listing. Leadership, including co-founder John Collison, has explicitly stated the firm is “in no rush” to go public, prioritizing long-term growth amid rising payment volumes and sustained profitability. With roughly four weeks remaining until the deadline and no S-1 filing or formal announcement, the window for a June close has effectively closed. An abrupt regulatory filing or surprise deal announcement could still shift odds, though historical precedent and current positioning make such outcomes remote.
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市场开放时间： Sep 22, 2025, 8:17 PM ET
交易量
$182,218结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2025, 8:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Stripe’s 98.9% market-implied probability of no IPO by June 30, 2026 stems from the company’s repeated use of large secondary tender offers—most recently a February 2026 transaction valuing it at $159 billion—to deliver liquidity to employees and shareholders without pursuing a public listing. Leadership, including co-founder John Collison, has explicitly stated the firm is “in no rush” to go public, prioritizing long-term growth amid rising payment volumes and sustained profitability. With roughly four weeks remaining until the deadline and no S-1 filing or formal announcement, the window for a June close has effectively closed. An abrupt regulatory filing or surprise deal announcement could still shift odds, though historical precedent and current positioning make such outcomes remote.
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$182,218结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2025, 8:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Stripe’s 98.9% market-implied probability of no IPO by June 30, 2026 stems from the company’s repeated use of large secondary tender offers—most recently a February 2026 transaction valuing it at $159 billion—to deliver liquidity to employees and shareholders without pursuing a public listing. Leadership, including co-founder John Collison, has explicitly stated the firm is “in no rush” to go public, prioritizing long-term growth amid rising payment volumes and sustained profitability. With roughly four weeks remaining until the deadline and no S-1 filing or formal announcement, the window for a June close has effectively closed. An abrupt regulatory filing or surprise deal announcement could still shift odds, though historical precedent and current positioning make such outcomes remote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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