Recent reports indicate Elon Musk has discussed folding Tesla into SpaceX following the rocket company's May 2026 S-1 filing for a potential $1.75 trillion IPO. The two entities already share resources, including SpaceX's $697 million in Tesla Megapack purchases for data centers, while analysts highlight synergies in AI, energy storage, and autonomous systems. Wedbush's Dan Ives assigns an 80-90% probability of a deal completing in the first half of 2027. Prediction markets currently price a formal announcement by late June 2026 at low single digits to around 18%, reflecting regulatory, valuation, and shareholder hurdles that typically delay such cross-structure transactions even when strategic alignment exists.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$478,600 交易量
2026-12-31
6月30日
4%
December 31
34%
$478,600 交易量
6月30日
$468,200 交易量
4%
December 31
$10,427 交易量
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent reports indicate Elon Musk has discussed folding Tesla into SpaceX following the rocket company's May 2026 S-1 filing for a potential $1.75 trillion IPO. The two entities already share resources, including SpaceX's $697 million in Tesla Megapack purchases for data centers, while analysts highlight synergies in AI, energy storage, and autonomous systems. Wedbush's Dan Ives assigns an 80-90% probability of a deal completing in the first half of 2027. Prediction markets currently price a formal announcement by late June 2026 at low single digits to around 18%, reflecting regulatory, valuation, and shareholder hurdles that typically delay such cross-structure transactions even when strategic alignment exists.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 13, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
交易量
$478,600结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent reports indicate Elon Musk has discussed folding Tesla into SpaceX following the rocket company's May 2026 S-1 filing for a potential $1.75 trillion IPO. The two entities already share resources, including SpaceX's $697 million in Tesla Megapack purchases for data centers, while analysts highlight synergies in AI, energy storage, and autonomous systems. Wedbush's Dan Ives assigns an 80-90% probability of a deal completing in the first half of 2027. Prediction markets currently price a formal announcement by late June 2026 at low single digits to around 18%, reflecting regulatory, valuation, and shareholder hurdles that typically delay such cross-structure transactions even when strategic alignment exists.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$478,600结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent reports indicate Elon Musk has discussed folding Tesla into SpaceX following the rocket company's May 2026 S-1 filing for a potential $1.75 trillion IPO. The two entities already share resources, including SpaceX's $697 million in Tesla Megapack purchases for data centers, while analysts highlight synergies in AI, energy storage, and autonomous systems. Wedbush's Dan Ives assigns an 80-90% probability of a deal completing in the first half of 2027. Prediction markets currently price a formal announcement by late June 2026 at low single digits to around 18%, reflecting regulatory, valuation, and shareholder hurdles that typically delay such cross-structure transactions even when strategic alignment exists.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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