Recent releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have kept the frontier AI race tightly contested heading into late June 2026. Claude Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 variants lead or tie on multiple benchmarks including reasoning and coding, while Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview shows strong agentic and multimodal performance. Performance across the top labs has converged within narrow margins on Arena Elo and composite indices, shifting emphasis to reliability, speed, and cost rather than raw capability gaps. No major new flagship has dropped in the past week, leaving trader focus on whether any lab can secure a decisive benchmark edge before the June 30 cutoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$1,586,832 交易量
2026-06-30
OpenAI
10%
Meta
3%
美团
3%
xAI
2%
Z.ai
2%
百度
2%
英伟达
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Mistral
1%
阿里巴巴
1%
$1,586,832 交易量
OpenAI
$416,414 交易量
10%
Meta
$18,220 交易量
3%
美团
$3,217 交易量
3%
xAI
$564,589 交易量
2%
Z.ai
$10,778 交易量
2%
百度
$3,989 交易量
2%
英伟达
$6,805 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$279,755 交易量
1%
Mistral
$13,370 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$11,869 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Recent releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have kept the frontier AI race tightly contested heading into late June 2026. Claude Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 variants lead or tie on multiple benchmarks including reasoning and coding, while Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview shows strong agentic and multimodal performance. Performance across the top labs has converged within narrow margins on Arena Elo and composite indices, shifting emphasis to reliability, speed, and cost rather than raw capability gaps. No major new flagship has dropped in the past week, leaving trader focus on whether any lab can secure a decisive benchmark edge before the June 30 cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
市场开放时间： Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$1,586,832结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Recent releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have kept the frontier AI race tightly contested heading into late June 2026. Claude Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 variants lead or tie on multiple benchmarks including reasoning and coding, while Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview shows strong agentic and multimodal performance. Performance across the top labs has converged within narrow margins on Arena Elo and composite indices, shifting emphasis to reliability, speed, and cost rather than raw capability gaps. No major new flagship has dropped in the past week, leaving trader focus on whether any lab can secure a decisive benchmark edge before the June 30 cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
交易量
$1,586,832结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have kept the frontier AI race tightly contested heading into late June 2026. Claude Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 variants lead or tie on multiple benchmarks including reasoning and coding, while Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview shows strong agentic and multimodal performance. Performance across the top labs has converged within narrow margins on Arena Elo and composite indices, shifting emphasis to reliability, speed, and cost rather than raw capability gaps. No major new flagship has dropped in the past week, leaving trader focus on whether any lab can secure a decisive benchmark edge before the June 30 cutoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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