Anthropic’s dominant market-implied odds reflect its rapid series of Claude Opus upgrades, most recently the May 28 release of Opus 4.8, which delivered measurable gains in coding accuracy, agentic workflows, and reduced error rates on benchmarks such as SWE-bench and computer-use evaluations. These improvements have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in practical, high-stakes LLM applications heading into end-of-June resolution. Google’s 13.5% share tracks Gemini 3.1 Pro’s continued strength on reasoning metrics like GPQA Diamond, though it trails in agentic and coding leaderboards. OpenAI’s low single-digit probability aligns with GPT-5.5 iterations remaining competitive on general intelligence indexes without recent decisive leads, while other labs show limited near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 83.4%
谷歌 14%
OpenAI 3.0%
xAI <1%
$9,407,928 交易量
$9,407,928 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
83%
谷歌
14%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
<1%
微软
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美团
<1%
Meta
<1%
百度
<1%
Anthropic 83.4%
谷歌 14%
OpenAI 3.0%
xAI <1%
$9,407,928 交易量
$9,407,928 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$1,244,639 交易量
83%
谷歌
$811,824 交易量
14%
OpenAI
$694,836 交易量
3%
xAI
$1,316,339 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$496,133 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
$715,862 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
$660,581 交易量
<1%
微软
$384,317 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$337,921 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$327,661 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$591,564 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$551,242 交易量
<1%
美团
$585,971 交易量
<1%
Meta
$347,630 交易量
<1%
百度
$342,387 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s dominant market-implied odds reflect its rapid series of Claude Opus upgrades, most recently the May 28 release of Opus 4.8, which delivered measurable gains in coding accuracy, agentic workflows, and reduced error rates on benchmarks such as SWE-bench and computer-use evaluations. These improvements have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in practical, high-stakes LLM applications heading into end-of-June resolution. Google’s 13.5% share tracks Gemini 3.1 Pro’s continued strength on reasoning metrics like GPQA Diamond, though it trails in agentic and coding leaderboards. OpenAI’s low single-digit probability aligns with GPT-5.5 iterations remaining competitive on general intelligence indexes without recent decisive leads, while other labs show limited near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$9,407,928结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s dominant market-implied odds reflect its rapid series of Claude Opus upgrades, most recently the May 28 release of Opus 4.8, which delivered measurable gains in coding accuracy, agentic workflows, and reduced error rates on benchmarks such as SWE-bench and computer-use evaluations. These improvements have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in practical, high-stakes LLM applications heading into end-of-June resolution. Google’s 13.5% share tracks Gemini 3.1 Pro’s continued strength on reasoning metrics like GPQA Diamond, though it trails in agentic and coding leaderboards. OpenAI’s low single-digit probability aligns with GPT-5.5 iterations remaining competitive on general intelligence indexes without recent decisive leads, while other labs show limited near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$9,407,928结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s dominant market-implied odds reflect its rapid series of Claude Opus upgrades, most recently the May 28 release of Opus 4.8, which delivered measurable gains in coding accuracy, agentic workflows, and reduced error rates on benchmarks such as SWE-bench and computer-use evaluations. These improvements have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in practical, high-stakes LLM applications heading into end-of-June resolution. Google’s 13.5% share tracks Gemini 3.1 Pro’s continued strength on reasoning metrics like GPQA Diamond, though it trails in agentic and coding leaderboards. OpenAI’s low single-digit probability aligns with GPT-5.5 iterations remaining competitive on general intelligence indexes without recent decisive leads, while other labs show limited near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题