Anthropic's recent cadence of Claude Opus updates, including the May 28 release of Opus 4.8 with enhanced reliability, agentic coding, and tool-use performance, has solidified trader consensus around its 83.4% implied probability for the best large language model by end of June. These iterations have delivered measurable gains on benchmarks such as SWE-bench and computer-use tasks, outpacing competitors amid converging frontier performance. Google maintains a 13.5% share on the strength of Gemini 2.5/3.1 Pro's multimodal and reasoning edges in certain leaderboards, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants sit at just 3.0% pending any immediate new capability demonstrations. No major releases have surfaced in the past week, keeping focus on Anthropic's momentum through the month.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 83.3%
谷歌 14%
OpenAI 3.0%
xAI <1%
$9,369,137 交易量
$9,369,137 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
83%
谷歌
14%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
<1%
微软
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美团
<1%
Meta
<1%
百度
<1%
Anthropic 83.3%
谷歌 14%
OpenAI 3.0%
xAI <1%
$9,369,137 交易量
$9,369,137 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$1,240,789 交易量
83%
谷歌
$809,236 交易量
14%
OpenAI
$691,644 交易量
3%
xAI
$1,313,679 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$494,159 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
$712,074 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
$658,571 交易量
<1%
微软
$382,452 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$335,933 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$325,686 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$588,105 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$549,195 交易量
<1%
美团
$583,890 交易量
<1%
Meta
$344,218 交易量
<1%
百度
$340,166 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent cadence of Claude Opus updates, including the May 28 release of Opus 4.8 with enhanced reliability, agentic coding, and tool-use performance, has solidified trader consensus around its 83.4% implied probability for the best large language model by end of June. These iterations have delivered measurable gains on benchmarks such as SWE-bench and computer-use tasks, outpacing competitors amid converging frontier performance. Google maintains a 13.5% share on the strength of Gemini 2.5/3.1 Pro's multimodal and reasoning edges in certain leaderboards, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants sit at just 3.0% pending any immediate new capability demonstrations. No major releases have surfaced in the past week, keeping focus on Anthropic's momentum through the month.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$9,369,137结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent cadence of Claude Opus updates, including the May 28 release of Opus 4.8 with enhanced reliability, agentic coding, and tool-use performance, has solidified trader consensus around its 83.4% implied probability for the best large language model by end of June. These iterations have delivered measurable gains on benchmarks such as SWE-bench and computer-use tasks, outpacing competitors amid converging frontier performance. Google maintains a 13.5% share on the strength of Gemini 2.5/3.1 Pro's multimodal and reasoning edges in certain leaderboards, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants sit at just 3.0% pending any immediate new capability demonstrations. No major releases have surfaced in the past week, keeping focus on Anthropic's momentum through the month.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$9,369,137结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's recent cadence of Claude Opus updates, including the May 28 release of Opus 4.8 with enhanced reliability, agentic coding, and tool-use performance, has solidified trader consensus around its 83.4% implied probability for the best large language model by end of June. These iterations have delivered measurable gains on benchmarks such as SWE-bench and computer-use tasks, outpacing competitors amid converging frontier performance. Google maintains a 13.5% share on the strength of Gemini 2.5/3.1 Pro's multimodal and reasoning edges in certain leaderboards, while OpenAI's GPT-5 variants sit at just 3.0% pending any immediate new capability demonstrations. No major releases have surfaced in the past week, keeping focus on Anthropic's momentum through the month.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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