Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.8 release in late May has driven the 85.5% market-implied probability that it holds the second-best large language model by end of June, reflecting sustained leaderboard strength in coding, writing, and overall capability benchmarks relative to competitors. Google follows at 8.0% amid Gemini 3.x updates, while OpenAI sits at 3.6% despite GPT-5.5 family iterations earlier in the year. Trader consensus incorporates Anthropic's edge in practical developer tools and benchmark consistency, though rapid iteration cycles across labs introduce uncertainty around any last-minute capability jumps before the June snapshot.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 86%
谷歌 8%
OpenAI 3.6%
DeepSeek 1.1%
$447,649 交易量
$447,649 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
86%
谷歌
8%
OpenAI
4%
DeepSeek
1%
xAI
1%
字节跳动
1%
百度
<1%
Meta
<1%
Mistral
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
美团
<1%
微软
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 86%
谷歌 8%
OpenAI 3.6%
DeepSeek 1.1%
$447,649 交易量
$447,649 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$17,703 交易量
86%
谷歌
$7,028 交易量
8%
OpenAI
$36,010 交易量
4%
DeepSeek
$251,773 交易量
1%
xAI
$15,968 交易量
1%
字节跳动
$7,044 交易量
1%
百度
$10,662 交易量
<1%
Meta
$7,117 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$8,595 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$12,487 交易量
<1%
美团
$39,598 交易量
<1%
微软
$7,142 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$7,443 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$7,181 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$11,897 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.8 release in late May has driven the 85.5% market-implied probability that it holds the second-best large language model by end of June, reflecting sustained leaderboard strength in coding, writing, and overall capability benchmarks relative to competitors. Google follows at 8.0% amid Gemini 3.x updates, while OpenAI sits at 3.6% despite GPT-5.5 family iterations earlier in the year. Trader consensus incorporates Anthropic's edge in practical developer tools and benchmark consistency, though rapid iteration cycles across labs introduce uncertainty around any last-minute capability jumps before the June snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$447,649结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.8 release in late May has driven the 85.5% market-implied probability that it holds the second-best large language model by end of June, reflecting sustained leaderboard strength in coding, writing, and overall capability benchmarks relative to competitors. Google follows at 8.0% amid Gemini 3.x updates, while OpenAI sits at 3.6% despite GPT-5.5 family iterations earlier in the year. Trader consensus incorporates Anthropic's edge in practical developer tools and benchmark consistency, though rapid iteration cycles across labs introduce uncertainty around any last-minute capability jumps before the June snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$447,649结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.8 release in late May has driven the 85.5% market-implied probability that it holds the second-best large language model by end of June, reflecting sustained leaderboard strength in coding, writing, and overall capability benchmarks relative to competitors. Google follows at 8.0% amid Gemini 3.x updates, while OpenAI sits at 3.6% despite GPT-5.5 family iterations earlier in the year. Trader consensus incorporates Anthropic's edge in practical developer tools and benchmark consistency, though rapid iteration cycles across labs introduce uncertainty around any last-minute capability jumps before the June snapshot.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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