Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 releases have driven the 81.5% market-implied probability for the company to hold the top AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by June 30, 2026. These models have posted leading scores on agentic coding, complex reasoning, and professional benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and Humanity’s Last Exam, widening performance gaps versus competitors over recent months. Google’s 12.5% odds rest on Gemini 3.1 Pro’s narrower reasoning edges, while OpenAI’s 3.5% reflects only incremental GPT-5 updates. No frontier releases have occurred in the past week, anchoring trader consensus to these verified capability differences ahead of the end-of-month snapshot.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 82%
谷歌 12%
OpenAI 3.5%
Meta 1.1%
$1,549,901 交易量
$1,549,901 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
82%
谷歌
12%
OpenAI
4%
Meta
1%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
微软
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
美团
<1%
Mistral
<1%
百度
<1%
Anthropic 82%
谷歌 12%
OpenAI 3.5%
Meta 1.1%
$1,549,901 交易量
$1,549,901 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$38,629 交易量
82%
谷歌
$25,300 交易量
12%
OpenAI
$54,862 交易量
4%
Meta
$13,322 交易量
1%
xAI
$19,161 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$206,347 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$421,531 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$210,235 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$141,907 交易量
<1%
微软
$16,183 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$16,864 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$25,104 交易量
<1%
美团
$277,261 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$67,007 交易量
<1%
百度
$16,187 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 releases have driven the 81.5% market-implied probability for the company to hold the top AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by June 30, 2026. These models have posted leading scores on agentic coding, complex reasoning, and professional benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and Humanity’s Last Exam, widening performance gaps versus competitors over recent months. Google’s 12.5% odds rest on Gemini 3.1 Pro’s narrower reasoning edges, while OpenAI’s 3.5% reflects only incremental GPT-5 updates. No frontier releases have occurred in the past week, anchoring trader consensus to these verified capability differences ahead of the end-of-month snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$1,549,901结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 releases have driven the 81.5% market-implied probability for the company to hold the top AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by June 30, 2026. These models have posted leading scores on agentic coding, complex reasoning, and professional benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and Humanity’s Last Exam, widening performance gaps versus competitors over recent months. Google’s 12.5% odds rest on Gemini 3.1 Pro’s narrower reasoning edges, while OpenAI’s 3.5% reflects only incremental GPT-5 updates. No frontier releases have occurred in the past week, anchoring trader consensus to these verified capability differences ahead of the end-of-month snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$1,549,901结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 releases have driven the 81.5% market-implied probability for the company to hold the top AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by June 30, 2026. These models have posted leading scores on agentic coding, complex reasoning, and professional benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and Humanity’s Last Exam, widening performance gaps versus competitors over recent months. Google’s 12.5% odds rest on Gemini 3.1 Pro’s narrower reasoning edges, while OpenAI’s 3.5% reflects only incremental GPT-5 updates. No frontier releases have occurred in the past week, anchoring trader consensus to these verified capability differences ahead of the end-of-month snapshot.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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