The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience through the 2025–2026 conflict, including an orderly succession after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February death and effective suppression of subsequent protests by security forces, underpins trader expectations of continuity. A fragile April ceasefire and ongoing diplomatic negotiations with the United States have further reduced immediate pressures, while U.S. intelligence assessments indicate retained central control without widespread defections or erosion of authority. With only weeks remaining before the June 30 deadline, these factors sustain the 98% implied probability on No. A sudden breakdown in talks triggering major escalation, or unanticipated internal fractures within the IRGC or clerical structures, represent the primary scenarios that could still shift the outcome before resolution.