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Fed predictions & odds

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Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

100%

No change

$106M Vol.

$10M today

$10M Liq.

1

Ends in 1 day

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

71%

0 (0 bps)

$35M Vol.

$437K today

$2M Liq.

85

Ends in 7 months

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

100%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$2M Vol.

$284K today

$279K Liq.

Ends in 1 day

Fed Decision in July?

Fed Decision in July?

95%

No change

$10M Vol.

$93.2K today

$979K Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

33%

$2M Vol.

$81.2K today

$95.6K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

<1%

$501K Vol.

$61.1K today

$130K Liq.

4

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

24%

December Meeting

$2M Vol.

$53.6K today

$238K Liq.

17

Ends in 1 day

Fed Decision in September?

Fed Decision in September?

74%

No change

$305K Vol.

$338K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Fed rate hike by...?

Fed rate hike by...?

29%

October Meeting

$173K Vol.

$84.7K Liq.

Ends in 5 months

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

67%

0

$34.0K Vol.

$23.4K Liq.

Ends in 1 day

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

32%

December 31

$422K Vol.

$3.1K Liq.

22

Ends in 7 months

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

71%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$3.9K Vol.

$76.4K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

8%

$106K Vol.

$3.0K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

93%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$54.4K Vol.

$50.7K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?

22%

December 31

$16.5K Vol.

$7.7K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___  by March 31?

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___ by March 31?

>5%

+ 2 more

$0 Vol.

$2.8K Liq.

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

88%

Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%

$159K Vol.

$4.9K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

Fed abolished before 2027?

Fed abolished before 2027?

3%

$4.4K Vol.

$19.3K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

39%

3.75%

$7M Vol.

$152K Liq.

5

Ends in 6 months

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

23%

↓ 3.25%

$2M Vol.

$128K Liq.

10

Ends in 7 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Fed.

Polymarket currently hosts 148 active markets for Fed that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Fed Decision in June?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $167.1M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Fed Decision in June?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Fed Decision in June?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 100% chance to No change. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Fed predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.