Redistricting through California's Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, shifted the 3rd District toward a stronger Democratic lean by incorporating more of northern Sacramento County and adjacent areas. This prompted Democratic incumbent Ami Bera to relocate from the neighboring seat and file for the June 2, 2026, top-two primary, where trader consensus assigns him a 97% chance of advancing. Multiple Democratic challengers, including Chris Bennett and Heidi Hall, have entered but trail significantly in market pricing. Republican candidates such as Robb Tucker, at 85% implied probability of advancing, face structural headwinds in the revised district lines ahead of the November general. No major late developments have altered positioning since candidate filing closed in March.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$5,595 交易量
2026-06-02
Ami Bera
97%
Robb Tucker
84%
Heidi Hall
11%
Chris Bennett
23%
Chris Richardson
5%
Christine Bish
4%
Laura Koscki
4%
Lyndon Cervantes
3%
$5,595 交易量
Ami Bera
$462 交易量
97%
Robb Tucker
$2,142 交易量
84%
Heidi Hall
$540 交易量
11%
Chris Bennett
$281 交易量
23%
Chris Richardson
$271 交易量
5%
Christine Bish
$1,561 交易量
4%
Laura Koscki
$306 交易量
4%
Lyndon Cervantes
$34 交易量
3%
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Redistricting through California's Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, shifted the 3rd District toward a stronger Democratic lean by incorporating more of northern Sacramento County and adjacent areas. This prompted Democratic incumbent Ami Bera to relocate from the neighboring seat and file for the June 2, 2026, top-two primary, where trader consensus assigns him a 97% chance of advancing. Multiple Democratic challengers, including Chris Bennett and Heidi Hall, have entered but trail significantly in market pricing. Republican candidates such as Robb Tucker, at 85% implied probability of advancing, face structural headwinds in the revised district lines ahead of the November general. No major late developments have altered positioning since candidate filing closed in March.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Apr 22, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
交易量
$5,595结束日期
2026-06-02市场开放时间
Apr 22, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Redistricting through California's Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, shifted the 3rd District toward a stronger Democratic lean by incorporating more of northern Sacramento County and adjacent areas. This prompted Democratic incumbent Ami Bera to relocate from the neighboring seat and file for the June 2, 2026, top-two primary, where trader consensus assigns him a 97% chance of advancing. Multiple Democratic challengers, including Chris Bennett and Heidi Hall, have entered but trail significantly in market pricing. Republican candidates such as Robb Tucker, at 85% implied probability of advancing, face structural headwinds in the revised district lines ahead of the November general. No major late developments have altered positioning since candidate filing closed in March.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$5,595结束日期
2026-06-02市场开放时间
Apr 22, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Redistricting through California's Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, shifted the 3rd District toward a stronger Democratic lean by incorporating more of northern Sacramento County and adjacent areas. This prompted Democratic incumbent Ami Bera to relocate from the neighboring seat and file for the June 2, 2026, top-two primary, where trader consensus assigns him a 97% chance of advancing. Multiple Democratic challengers, including Chris Bennett and Heidi Hall, have entered but trail significantly in market pricing. Republican candidates such as Robb Tucker, at 85% implied probability of advancing, face structural headwinds in the revised district lines ahead of the November general. No major late developments have altered positioning since candidate filing closed in March.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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