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政治·June 2 Primaries

Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?

icon for Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?
政治·June 2 Primaries

Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?

$607 交易量

Polymarket

$607 交易量

Lateefah Simon

$408 交易量

98%

Jamie Joyce

$199 交易量

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no election is held by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Lateefah Simon holds overwhelming trader consensus in the June 2 top-two primary for California's 12th Congressional District due to her status as the sitting Democratic incumbent in a D+39 district encompassing Oakland and Berkeley. Simon benefits from substantial fundraising exceeding several hundred thousand dollars, established name recognition from her 2024 election, and endorsements from progressive organizations and labor groups. Challenger Jamie Joyce, also a Democrat, has reported negligible fundraising and limited visibility. The district's partisan composition and historical patterns of incumbent primary success reinforce the current pricing. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include an unexpected surge in late voter turnout or unforeseen campaign developments in the final hours before polls close.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no election is held by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$607
结束日期
2026-06-02
市场开放时间
May 25, 2026, 4:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no election is held by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no election is held by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Lateefah Simon holds overwhelming trader consensus in the June 2 top-two primary for California's 12th Congressional District due to her status as the sitting Democratic incumbent in a D+39 district encompassing Oakland and Berkeley. Simon benefits from substantial fundraising exceeding several hundred thousand dollars, established name recognition from her 2024 election, and endorsements from progressive organizations and labor groups. Challenger Jamie Joyce, also a Democrat, has reported negligible fundraising and limited visibility. The district's partisan composition and historical patterns of incumbent primary success reinforce the current pricing. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include an unexpected surge in late voter turnout or unforeseen campaign developments in the final hours before polls close.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no election is held by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$607
结束日期
2026-06-02
市场开放时间
May 25, 2026, 4:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no election is held by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"Lateefah Simon"，概率为 98%，其次是"Jamie Joyce"，概率为 1%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 98¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 98%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于May 25, 2026上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?"的当前领先者是"Lateefah Simon"，概率为 98%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 98%。紧随其后的结果是"Jamie Joyce"，概率为 1%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。