Abelardo de la Espriella secured a plurality in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote with roughly 43.7 percent, ahead of Iván Cepeda at 40.9 percent, advancing both to the June 21 runoff as no candidate reached the 50 percent threshold required for outright victory. Official tallies from the national registry confirm this outcome across the field of more than a dozen contenders. Trader consensus reflects the completed vote count and absence of material challenges to date, though final certification or any successful legal contest over results could theoretically shift positioning before market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Runoff election scheduled between Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda
With no candidate securing an outright majority in the first round, a runoff election was scheduled for June 21, 2026, between right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella and left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda, setting the stage for a decisive contest over Colombia's political future.
Abelardo de la Espriella wins first round of Colombian presidential election
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 98%66%
Official results from Colombia's National Civil Registry showed Abelardo de la Espriella winning the first round with 43.74% of the vote, narrowly ahead of Iván Cepeda's 40.90%. Neither candidate secured over 50%, leading to a runoff scheduled for June 21, 2026.
First round of Colombian presidential election held; Abelardo de la Espriella leads, Iván Cepeda second
In the first round of the 2026 presidential election, Abelardo de la Espriella led with approximately 44% of the vote, followed closely by Iván Cepeda with about 41%. Neither candidate reached the 50% threshold, leading to a runoff scheduled for June 21, 2026.
Abelardo de la Espriella wins first round of presidential election, setting runoff with Iván Cepeda
In the first round of the 2026 presidential election, Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.74% of the vote, narrowly ahead of Iván Cepeda who received 40.90%. Neither candidate secured an outright majority, leading to a runoff scheduled for June 21, 2026. The election highlighted Colombia's political polarization and security concerns during the campaign.
Iván Cepeda concedes first round loss, prepares for runoff
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 0%90%
Following the official results showing his second-place finish, Iván Cepeda acknowledged the need to regroup for the upcoming runoff election against Abelardo de la Espriella, highlighting the polarized political environment.
Iván Cepeda concedes second place in first round, preparing for runoff
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 1%70%
Iván Cepeda, candidate of the left-wing Historic Pact, acknowledged his second-place finish in the first round and prepared for the runoff against Abelardo de la Espriella. Despite leading in many polls, Cepeda did not secure over 50% of the vote, necessitating a second round.
Video surfaces of Iván Cepeda being confronted over child victims of FARC, Vicky Dávila criticizes him
Vicky Dávila dips to 0%1%
A video showing Cepeda being publicly confronted about child victims of FARC circulated widely, with journalist Vicky Dávila criticizing him. This controversy likely contributed to the collapse of Vicky Dávila's market price to zero and affected perceptions of Cepeda's opponents.
Poll consolidates Iván Cepeda's lead with 38.9% ahead of first round
A consolidated poll from multiple firms confirmed Iván Cepeda's strong lead with 38.9% voter intention, well ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, reinforcing market confidence in his first-round victory.
Late surge in support for Abelardo de la Espriella before election
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 36%20%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market price rose sharply just days before the election, reflecting increased voter interest or campaign developments.
Final polls confirm Iván Cepeda as clear frontrunner for Colombia presidency
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 67%18%
In the final days before the election, polls and market prices showed Iván Cepeda maintaining a dominant lead, with other candidates' chances dropping to near zero, indicating strong market consensus on his first-round victory.
Cepeda campaign ends with strong poll lead
Recent polls place Cepeda as the frontrunner, though he fell short of the 50% needed for an outright victory, setting up a potential second round.
Iván Cepeda closes campaign with large rally in Bogotá
Iván Cepeda held a major campaign closing event in Bogotá’s Plaza de Bolívar, drawing a large crowd of supporters from the Historic Pact party. This event reinforced his frontrunner status ahead of the May 31 first-round election.
Colombia Presidential Election First Round Results Announced
Official results confirmed Cepeda as first-round winner, resolving the market.
Iván Cepeda closes presidential campaign with large rally in Bogotá
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 79%9%
Iván Cepeda held a major campaign closing event in Bogotá with strong support from the Pacto Histórico party, reinforcing his frontrunner status just days before the election.
Cepeda wraps up campaign calling for first-round victory
Cepeda concluded his campaign in Bogotá, calling for a first-round victory and gaining support from former Liberal President Ernesto Samper and other political figures.
Final polls show Iván Cepeda as narrow front-runner before May 31 vote
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 64%21%
Final polling data confirmed Iván Cepeda as the narrow front-runner, supporting his market price near the election date.
Iván Cepeda closes presidential campaign with large rally in Bogotá
Cepeda held a major campaign closing event in Bogotá with strong support from Pacto Histórico followers, signaling campaign strength and likely contributing to his market lead ahead of the election.
Iván Cepeda closes campaign with large rally in Bogotá
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 76%14%
Iván Cepeda held a major campaign closing event in Bogotá's Plaza de Bolívar, demonstrating strong grassroots support ahead of the May 31 first round. This event reinforced his frontrunner status and energized his base.
Poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella surging to near tie with Iván Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 33%8%
A poll conducted in late May 2026 showed Abelardo de la Espriella gaining significant support, nearly tying with Iván Cepeda in voter intention. This surge reflected his effective last-minute campaigning and endorsements, making the race highly competitive ahead of the May 31 election.
Abelardo de la Espriella holds massive campaign closing rally in Barranquilla
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 24%8%
De la Espriella's large rally demonstrated his strong regional support and energized his campaign, contributing to a late surge in market support ahead of the election.
Iván Cepeda closes campaign with large rally in Bogota
Cepeda's campaign closing rally in Bogota projected confidence and electoral inevitability, reinforcing his front-runner status and maintaining high market support.
Video surfaces of Iván Cepeda being confronted by victims of child recruitment by FARC
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 70%16%
A video showing Iván Cepeda being publicly confronted over the issue of child victims recruited by FARC sparked controversy and criticism, including from rival candidate Vicky Dávila, impacting public perception shortly before the election.
Controversy as mural on 'false positives' erased near Álvaro Uribe's home, Uribe accuses Iván Cepeda of provoking violence
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 72%12%
The erasure of a mural about extrajudicial killings sparked political tension, with former president Uribe accusing Cepeda of inciting violence. This event brought media attention to Cepeda's campaign and may have affected public perception and market prices.
Controversy over Abelardo de la Espriella's military service status
A report revealed that Abelardo de la Espriella was declared unfit for military service, sparking debate and criticism given his campaign's emphasis on patriotism and security. This controversy increased public attention on his candidacy during the campaign.
Abelardo de la Espriella's military service status revealed amid patriotism claims
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 25%24%
The Colombian Army confirmed that Abelardo de la Espriella was declared unfit for military service in 1994, leading to his exemption. This revelation sparked debate given his campaign's emphasis on patriotism and security, affecting public perception of his candidacy.
Iván Cepeda calls for investigation into ambassador Vilma Velásquez for political campaigning
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 85%5%
Cepeda requested an investigation into the ambassador in Haiti for allegedly using her diplomatic position to promote candidacies, highlighting his commitment to legal and ethical standards in politics, which may have positively influenced his market standing.
Abelardo de la Espriella faces backlash for misogynistic remarks during campaign
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 25%5%
Abelardo de la Espriella made misogynistic comments in interviews, drawing widespread criticism and highlighting sexism in the presidential race. The controversy affected his campaign's image and intensified the rivalry with Paloma Valencia, who distanced herself from his remarks.
Controversy as Iván Cepeda calls for investigation into ambassador promoting his campaign
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 70%16%
Iván Cepeda requested an investigation into the ambassador in Haiti for allegedly using her position to promote his candidacy, drawing media attention and scrutiny but affirming his commitment to ethical campaigning.
Controversy over Iván Cepeda’s confrontation regarding child victims of FARC
A video surfaced showing Iván Cepeda being publicly confronted over the number of child victims attributed to FARC, with journalist Vicky Dávila criticizing Cepeda harshly. This controversy polarized public opinion but ultimately did not diminish Cepeda’s lead in the polls.
Controversy as Iván Cepeda is publicly confronted over Farc child victim statistics
A video circulated showing Cepeda being challenged by victims' families over Farc's recruitment of children, sparking criticism from rival candidate Vicky Dávila. This incident brought attention to Cepeda's campaign but did not significantly dent his market lead.
Iván Cepeda proposes basic income for people with disabilities
Cepeda announced a key campaign proposal to create a basic income for people with disabilities, aiming to address social inequalities and garner support from vulnerable populations ahead of the election.
Iván Cepeda faces scrutiny over campaign finance irregularities
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 82%4%
Investigations and media reports raised questions about Iván Cepeda's campaign finance disclosures, potentially affecting his credibility. Despite this, his market price remained high, reflecting strong voter support and campaign momentum.
Abelardo de la Espriella announces José Manuel Restrepo as vice-presidential running mate
Abelardo de la Espriella selected economist and former minister José Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential candidate, aiming to bolster his campaign with a technocratic profile and appeal to a broader electorate amid a polarized political environment.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws from presidential race and endorses Iván Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 100%50%
Luis Gilberto Murillo formally withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating left-wing support behind Cepeda and causing Murillo's market price to drop to zero while boosting Cepeda's chances.
Luis Gilberto Murillo joins Iván Cepeda's campaign
Murillo withdrew his candidacy and formally joined Cepeda's campaign, consolidating the left-wing bloc and strengthening Cepeda's position against potential runoff scenarios.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws presidential candidacy and endorses Iván Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 76%26%
Luis Gilberto Murillo, a former minister and diplomat, formally withdrew from the presidential race in early May 2026 and endorsed Iván Cepeda. This consolidation within the left-wing bloc strengthened Cepeda's position ahead of the first round.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws presidential candidacy and endorses Iván Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo drops to 0%6%
Luis Gilberto Murillo, a former candidate with a growing public profile, withdrew from the presidential race and formally endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating left-wing support behind Cepeda shortly before the election, which strengthened Cepeda’s market position.
Luis Gilberto Murillo and Clara López withdraw to support Iván Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 93%8%
Two significant candidates, Luis Gilberto Murillo and Clara López, withdrew their candidacies to back Iván Cepeda, consolidating the left-wing vote and increasing Cepeda's chances of winning outright in the first round.
Luis Gilberto Murillo drops out and endorses Iván Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo plunges to 0%50%
Murillo's withdrawal and endorsement of Cepeda consolidated the left-wing vote, strengthening Cepeda's position as the leading left candidate ahead of the election.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws and endorses Iván Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 77%27%
Luis Gilberto Murillo formally withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating left-wing support behind Cepeda and boosting his chances in the final stretch before the election.
Cepeda denounces armed groups pressuring voters ahead of election
Cepeda publicly denounced pressure from armed groups to influence the electorate, emphasizing the need for legal sanctions against intimidation tactics, reinforcing his commitment to democratic principles.
Iván Cepeda denounces armed group pressures on voters ahead of election
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 87%5%
Iván Cepeda publicly condemned reports of armed groups pressuring voters in several regions, demanding legal sanctions. This stance highlighted his commitment to democratic integrity and may have strengthened voter confidence and market support.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws presidential candidacy to support Iván Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo, a former minister and diplomat, announced his withdrawal from the presidential race and endorsed Iván Cepeda. This consolidation aimed to strengthen the left-wing coalition ahead of the May 31 election, though Murillo's market support had been low prior to this move.
Iván Cepeda denounces armed groups pressuring voters ahead of May 31 election
Iván Cepeda publicly condemned pressures and intimidation by armed groups on voters, demanding legal sanctions. This reinforced his image as a defender of democratic processes and likely boosted market confidence in his candidacy.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws presidential candidacy to support Iván Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo plunges to 0%50%
Luis Gilberto Murillo officially renounced his presidential bid and endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating the left-wing vote ahead of the first round. This strategic move was significant in shaping the electoral dynamics and reducing vote fragmentation on the left.
Iván Cepeda Castro reaches peak market confidence before election
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 96%6%
Just weeks before the election, Iván Cepeda Castro's market price peaked at 96%, indicating strong market consensus on his likely first-round victory based on polling and campaign developments.
Abelardo de la Espriella Market Probability Rebounds to 44%
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%40%
Late surge in De la Espriella's market probability suggests final campaign efforts may have boosted his appeal, though he remains a distant second.
Colombian labor unions unite in support of Iván Cepeda's presidential campaign
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 85%10%
National and international labor organizations publicly endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating his support among working-class voters and strengthening his campaign's social base, which positively impacted his market standing.
Market solidifies Iván Cepeda Castro as frontrunner for Colombia presidency
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 88%5%
Market prices peaked for Iván Cepeda Castro, reflecting strong confidence in his first-round victory as other candidates' chances dropped to near zero, indicating consensus on the election outcome ahead of the May 31 vote.
Iván Cepeda delivers May Day rally speech in Bogota
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 94%7%
Cepeda's May Day rally speech on May 1, 2026, reinforced his campaign themes and visibility, contributing to his peak market support shortly before the election.
Cepeda delivers May Day speech in Bogotá rally
Cepeda delivered a major campaign speech during a May Day rally in Bogotá, reinforcing his position as the frontrunner and building momentum for the first-round victory.
Colombian President Petro and Trump meet, signaling shift in US-Colombia relations
The meeting between Petro and Trump marked a significant diplomatic shift, with Trump calling Petro 'terrific' and discussing cooperation on trade and security. This improved relationship likely increased market confidence in Petro's allied candidate Iván Cepeda Castro.
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading presidential race with 44.3% support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 70%6%
An Invamer poll published on April 26 showed Cepeda leading with 44.3%, reinforcing his frontrunner status and causing a market price increase for his winning probability.
Iván Cepeda leads presidential polls with over 44% support, Invamer survey shows
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 92%7%
A major poll by Invamer confirmed Iván Cepeda's strong lead in voter intention, consolidating his frontrunner status and influencing market confidence in his first-round victory chances.
Iván Cepeda Leads in Invamer Poll at 44.3%
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 94%4%
A major poll showed Cepeda leading with 44.3% support, with De la Espriella at 21.5%, reinforcing his frontrunner position and market pricing.
Invamer poll shows Cepeda at 44.3%, De la Espriella at 21.5%, Valencia at 19.8%
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 93%4%
This poll confirmed Cepeda's lead and the race narrowing to three candidates, reinforcing his position as the likely first-round winner.
Iván Cepeda calls for May 1 marches in solidarity with Cauca victims
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 88%3%
In response to violent attacks in Cauca, Iván Cepeda mobilized supporters for solidarity marches, highlighting his commitment to social issues and reinforcing his leadership image ahead of the election.
Abelardo de la Espriella gains momentum in presidential race
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 14%7%
The ultraconservative lawyer saw a notable increase in market support as his campaign's 'iron-fisted' platform against criminal groups resonated with voters.
Iván Cepeda Castro reaches new peak in presidential market
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 88%6%
Market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro's victory reached a new high as the election approached, reflecting his sustained lead.
Claudia López drops out and backs Cepeda
Claudia López drops to 0%6%
Claudia López withdrew from the race and threw her support behind Cepeda, causing her market price to fall to zero and further boosting Cepeda’s lead.
Supreme Court accepts Iván Cepeda’s extraordinary appeal in Uribe case
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 79%9%
The Supreme Court of Colombia accepted Cepeda’s extraordinary appeal related to the Uribe case, signaling a possible legal reversal in his favor, which boosted his candidacy's legitimacy and market price.
Iván Cepeda Castro reaches new peak in market support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 95%9%
Market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro's victory reached a new high, reflecting his sustained lead and the weakening of alternative candidates.
President Petro reveals CIA aware of threats against Iván Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 86%3%
President Gustavo Petro disclosed that the CIA had information about a possible assassination attempt on Iván Cepeda, raising security concerns and highlighting the risks faced by candidates. This increased public sympathy and support for Cepeda's campaign.
DEA names Colombian President Gustavo Petro a 'priority target' amid drug trafficking probe
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 94%8%
The U.S. DEA designated President Petro as a priority target in investigations into alleged drug trafficking ties, raising political risks and controversy. Despite this, market support for Iván Cepeda Castro remained strong, reflecting confidence in his coalition's resilience.
Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo formally endorse Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 94%3%
Both Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo publicly endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating the left‑wing bloc and eliminating their own market shares.
President Gustavo Petro's administration faces electoral tests ahead of May vote
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 90%13%
President Petro's confrontations with opposition and U.S. political dynamics heightened political tensions, influencing voter sentiment and boosting support for Iván Cepeda Castro as the favored candidate from the ruling coalition.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro optimistic about upcoming meeting with U.S. President Trump
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 88%9%
Petro expressed optimism about a high-stakes meeting with Trump, signaling a potential easing of tensions and improved bilateral relations. This diplomatic development likely bolstered confidence in candidates aligned with Petro's coalition.
Iván Cepeda Castro surges in polls amid campaign momentum
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 86%7%
Iván Cepeda Castro's campaign gained significant momentum in mid-April, reflected by a sharp increase in market prices, indicating growing voter support and confidence in his lead for the first round victory.
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 94%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, adding a new dynamic to the crowded field of over two dozen candidates.
Vicky Dávila leaves presidential race and returns to journalism
Vicky Dávila drops to 0%6%
Vicky Dávila, a conservative journalist and early frontrunner, withdrew from the presidential race after losing the center-right primary to Paloma Valencia. She returned to journalism, causing her market support to collapse to zero.
Vicky Dávila leaves Paloma Valencia’s coalition and returns to journalism
Vicky Dávila plunges to 0%51%
After losing the center-right primary, Vicky Dávila exited Paloma Valencia’s coalition and ended her presidential campaign, returning to journalism. This withdrawal consolidated the right-wing vote around Valencia and De la Espriella.
Death threats against presidential candidates Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella
Paloma Valencia plunges to 2%20%
Both Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella received death threats and attacks on campaign offices, raising security concerns and impacting their campaigns. The ruling party candidate Iván Cepeda condemned these attacks, highlighting the tense electoral environment.
Iván Cepeda Castro solidifies lead as Colombia presidential front-runner
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 92%19%
In April 2026, Iván Cepeda Castro's market price surged to 92%, reflecting his solidified position as the leading candidate for Colombia's presidency, with other candidates' chances diminishing to near zero.
Two campaign staffers of Abelardo de la Espriella killed in Meta Department
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 14%4%
Two staffers working for right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella were assassinated, highlighting the security risks in the election campaign. This event raised concerns about violence affecting the right-wing campaign and caused volatility in De la Espriella's market price.
Explosive attack kills 13 on bus in southwestern Colombia amid rising violence
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 87%17%
A deadly bombing in Cauca region heightened security concerns and underscored ongoing violence linked to drug trafficking and rebel groups, influencing voter priorities towards candidates promising strong security measures, benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro's campaign.
Colombian unions unite in support of Iván Cepeda's presidential campaign
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 92%7%
Major national and international labor unions publicly endorsed Iván Cepeda, strengthening his base among working-class voters and enhancing his campaign's social legitimacy and momentum.
Poll consolidates Iván Cepeda's lead with 38.9% voter intention
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 87%11%
A consolidated poll from five major firms showed Iván Cepeda leading with 38.9%, followed by Abelardo de la Espriella at 23.9% and Paloma Valencia at 19%. This reinforced market confidence in Cepeda's frontrunner status.
Colombia authorizes euthanasia plan for invasive hippos descended from Pablo Escobar's stock
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 90%20%
The Colombian government approved a protocol to control the population of invasive hippos, a controversial environmental and political issue. This reflects the government's active policy stance, potentially boosting support for candidates aligned with the administration.
Government announces drone‑based coca eradication program
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 91%10%
President Gustavo Petro’s administration unveiled a new drone program to destroy coca crops, boosting security credentials of left‑wing candidates and reinforcing support for Cepeda’s platform.
Paloma Valencia surges past De La Espriella in CNC poll
A CNC poll showed Paloma Valencia rising to 22.2% behind Cepeda at 34.5%, with a statistical tie in runoff projections, reshaping the race dynamics and increasing Cepeda's strategic importance.
Interparty primaries narrow Colombia presidential candidate field
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%8%
As the election approached, interparty primaries in early March led to a narrowing of the candidate field, consolidating support around frontrunners like Iván Cepeda Castro and diminishing prospects for others such as Paloma Valencia and David Luna Sánchez.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela policy
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 83%13%
Petro’s confrontational stance against the U.S. administration heightened political tensions and polarized voters, influencing the election dynamics by consolidating support for left-wing candidates like Iván Cepeda Castro while weakening conservative contenders.
Iván Cepeda urges media to stop health speculation amid campaign
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 67%9%
Iván Cepeda publicly rejected unfounded speculation about his health, affirming his fitness to run for president. This helped stabilize his campaign image and maintain voter confidence during the election period.
Iván Cepeda publicly refutes health speculation amid campaign
Iván Cepeda addressed and rejected unfounded media speculation about his health, affirming his fitness for presidency after rigorous medical checks. This helped stabilize his campaign image and maintain voter confidence.
Iván Cepeda Castro surges in presidential polling
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 79%9%
Following a period of consolidation, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro saw a significant increase in his polling numbers, solidifying his position as a frontrunner in the presidential race.
Iván Cepeda announces Aida Quilcué as vice-presidential running mate
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 67%3%
Cepeda's announcement of Indigenous leader Aida Quilcué as his vice-presidential candidate after the March parliamentary elections strengthened his campaign and consolidated support among progressive voters.
Iván Cepeda officially becomes Historic Pact presidential candidate after primary victory
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 79%18%
Following his victory in the October 2025 primary, Iván Cepeda was confirmed as the presidential candidate of the Historic Pact, solidifying his position as the leftist frontrunner in the 2026 election.
Iván Cepeda selects Aida Quilcué as vice-presidential running mate
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 87%11%
Cepeda's announcement of Indigenous leader Aida Quilcué as his vice-presidential candidate strengthened his campaign's appeal to diverse voter groups, positively impacting his market position.
Iván Cepeda announces Indigenous leader Aída Quilcué as running mate
Cepeda's selection of Aída Quilcué as vice-presidential candidate reinforced his campaign's emphasis on social justice and Indigenous representation, strengthening his appeal in key regions.
Interparty primaries narrow candidate field and set alliances
The March 8 interparty primaries and legislative elections narrowed the candidate field, with key candidates like Juan Daniel Oviedo becoming Paloma Valencia's vice-presidential running mate, and others withdrawing or consolidating support, shaping the final race dynamics.
Cepeda wins parliamentary election overwhelming majority
Cepeda won the parliamentary election with an overwhelming majority, solidifying his position as the presidential candidate and allowing him to officially register for the May election.
Historic Pact wins overwhelming majority in parliamentary elections
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 63%9%
The Historic Pact's strong parliamentary election results bolstered Iván Cepeda's campaign momentum, leading to a significant increase in his market support.
Interparty primaries narrow candidate field, Paloma Valencia wins center-right consultation
Paloma Valencia drops to 5%5%
The March 8 interparty primaries consolidated the candidate field, with Paloma Valencia winning the center-right consultation, Claudia López winning the centrist primary, and Roy Barreras winning the leftist primary. This event diminished prospects for some candidates and clarified the main contenders.
Paloma Valencia wins Democratic Center primary decisively
Valencia's strong victory in the center-right primary consolidated her position as the main conservative candidate, boosting her market support significantly.
Paloma Valencia wins center-right primary and selects Juan Daniel Oviedo as running mate
Paloma Valencia secured a significant majority in the center-right primary election, becoming the official candidate of the Democratic Center party. She announced Juan Daniel Oviedo as her vice-presidential candidate, consolidating her position as the main center-right contender.
Interparty primaries narrow field, Paloma Valencia wins center-right nomination
Claudia López drops to 0%5%
Paloma Valencia won the center-right primary decisively, consolidating her position as the main right-wing candidate alongside Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda. This primary result diminished the prospects of other candidates like Vicky Dávila and David Luna Sánchez.
Juan Daniel Oviedo becomes vice-presidential candidate for Paloma Valencia
Juan Daniel Oviedo dips to 0%2%
Juan Daniel Oviedo, former director of DANE, was confirmed as the vice-presidential running mate for Paloma Valencia after the March 8 primaries, consolidating the center-right ticket for the May 31 election.
Interparty primaries narrow field, Paloma Valencia wins center-right primary
Juan Daniel Oviedo plunges to 0%50%
The March 8 interparty primaries consolidated support around key candidates, with Paloma Valencia winning the center-right primary, while Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella did not participate in primaries but remained frontrunners. This event shaped the candidate landscape for the May 31 election.
Paloma Valencia wins center-right primary and selects Juan Daniel Oviedo as running mate
Paloma Valencia won the center-right interparty primary and later confirmed Juan Daniel Oviedo as her vice-presidential candidate, consolidating the center-right coalition ahead of the presidential election.
Colombians elect new Congress and choose presidential candidates in primaries
On March 8, 2026, Colombians voted for a new Congress and participated in interparty consultations to select presidential candidates for three major coalitions. Paloma Valencia won the right-wing primary, Claudia López the center, and Roy Barreras the center-left. Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella did not participate in primaries but remained leading candidates.
Escalation of violence with deadly bus bombing in southwestern Colombia
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 64%2%
A terrorist attack killed 13 people on a bus in southwestern Colombia, escalating violence linked to drug trafficking and armed groups. This heightened security concerns likely affected voter sentiment and market confidence in candidates promising strong security policies.
Abelardo de la Espriella withdraws from race
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 13%6%
Abelardo de la Espriella announced his withdrawal citing personal reasons, causing his market price to tumble as his supporters dispersed.
Iván Cepeda Castro surges in presidential polls
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 74%19%
Senator Iván Cepeda Castro, representing the Historical Pact, solidified his position as the frontrunner in the presidential race.
Parents reject Iván Cepeda's presence at Bogotá Christian school event
An event involving Iván Cepeda at a Christian school in Bogotá sparked backlash from parents who felt the school should remain politically neutral, causing some negative publicity for Cepeda's campaign.
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in presidential race
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%7%
Following interparty primaries, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro emerged as a frontrunner, causing his market price to rise significantly.
Colombian plane crash kills 15 including congress member Diógenes Quintero
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 76%9%
The tragic crash heightened awareness of security and political risks in Colombia, potentially consolidating support for candidates promising stability and peace, such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who saw increased market support following the incident.
Escalation of violence in Colombia with deadly bus bombing
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 63%5%
An explosive device killed 13 people on a bus in southwestern Colombia, highlighting ongoing security challenges. This violence likely affected voter sentiment and candidate support, particularly for those promising strong security measures.
Iván Cepeda leads in polls amid left-wing coalition strength
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 68%14%
Senator Iván Cepeda, representing the Historical Pact coalition, gained momentum in polls as the leading candidate, reflecting growing support for the left-wing coalition and diminishing prospects for conservative candidates.
Political tensions rise as President Gustavo Petro clashes with U.S. over Venezuela
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%11%
President Gustavo Petro's confrontational stance against U.S. policies on Venezuela heightened political tensions, influencing the electoral environment and bolstering support for candidates aligned with his coalition, notably Iván Cepeda Castro.
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid, backs Iván Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 85%21%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy and publicly supported Iván Cepeda, reinforcing Cepeda's position as the leading contender in polls and prompting a sharp rise in his market price.
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading with 68% support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 70%7%
A national poll released by a leading Colombian survey firm placed Iván Cepeda at 68% support, far ahead of any rival, prompting a sharp rise in his market price as voters coalesced around his candidacy.
Escalation of violence in southwestern Colombia with deadly bus bombing
An explosive device killed 13 people on a bus in Cauca, Colombia, escalating violence linked to drug trafficking and armed groups. This heightened security concerns ahead of the election, reinforcing support for candidates promising strong security measures, benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro's coalition.
Colombia announces drone use to destroy coca crops amid record cocaine production
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 70%8%
The government’s decision to resume aerial fumigation using drones marked a shift towards aggressive anti-drug policies, impacting public opinion and candidate support related to security and drug trafficking issues, favoring candidates with strong law enforcement stances.
Iván Cepeda files criminal complaint against ex-president Pastrana over Epstein links
Cepeda's legal action against former President Pastrana over alleged misuse of military assets for private entertainment raised his profile and political tensions during the campaign.
Iván Cepeda files criminal complaint against ex-President Pastrana over Epstein-Maxwell scandal
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 68%14%
Iván Cepeda announced a criminal complaint against former President Andrés Pastrana, alleging misuse of military assets for private entertainment linked to Ghislaine Maxwell. This raised Cepeda's profile and stirred political debate, boosting his campaign momentum and market support.
Iván Cepeda denied participation in left-wing primary, pledges direct candidacy
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 63%9%
The National Electoral Council (CNE) considered excluding Iván Cepeda from the left-wing primary, prompting his party to announce he would run directly in the first round. This solidified his position as the main left candidate and boosted market confidence in his chances.
Colombia's National Electoral Council excludes Iván Cepeda from left-wing interparty primary
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 29%20%
The National Electoral Council (CNE) ruled that Iván Cepeda could not participate in the left-wing interparty primary, forcing him to run directly in the first round of the presidential election. This decision caused market volatility and a drop in Cepeda's market price from 49% to 29%.
Iván Cepeda excluded from left-wing interparty primary, forced to run directly in first round
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 29%20%
Colombia's National Electoral Council disqualified Iván Cepeda from participating in the left-wing Front for Life primary, leading his party to announce he would register directly for the May 31 first round. This caused a sharp drop in Cepeda's market price due to concerns about fragmentation and loss of momentum.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 65%4%
President Petro announced optimism about a high-stakes meeting with U.S. President Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw after months of tension. This improved international relations likely bolstered confidence in the ruling coalition and Iván Cepeda Castro's candidacy.
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%10%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential campaign to defend his late son's political legacy despite falling out with the Democratic Center party. This event highlighted the ongoing political violence and instability in Colombia ahead of the 2026 election, potentially impacting voter sentiment and market perceptions of candidate viability.
Iván Cepeda wins Pacto Histórico internal consultation with over 64% of votes
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 63%9%
Cepeda secured the Pacto Histórico nomination by winning the internal consultation decisively, solidifying his position as the left-wing candidate and boosting market confidence in his electoral prospects.
Colombian Leftist Candidate Cepeda Tops New Presidential Poll
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 63%14%
A Bloomberg poll confirmed Cepeda's leadership position, reinforcing his status as the top contender and supporting market price increases.
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum as leading left-wing candidate in Colombia
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 82%27%
Iván Cepeda Castro, a senator from the Historical Pact coalition, solidified his position as the leading left-wing candidate, gaining significant support in polls and among voters, which boosted his market price from around 55% to over 80% in March and April 2026.
Miguel Uribe Londoño relaunches presidential bid after son's assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 32%2%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his presidential candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, creating a new dynamic in the election and impacting candidate support.
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading Colombia presidential race with 30% support
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 51%2%
A GAD3 poll released showed Iván Cepeda leading the presidential race with 30% voter intention, ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella at 22%, confirming Cepeda's frontrunner status and influencing market prices.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela policy
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Petro’s confrontation with former U.S. President Trump over Venezuela increased political polarization and energized his coalition’s base, benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro’s market position as a candidate aligned with Petro’s left-wing coalition.
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 54%7%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the killed presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy despite disputes with his son's party. This event highlighted the fragmentation and realignment within Colombian political factions, indirectly boosting support for other leading candidates like Iván Cepeda Castro.
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 56%7%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, despite leaving the Democratic Center party. This event highlighted the fragmentation and volatility in the Colombian presidential race, impacting candidate support dynamics.
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 30%19%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, despite leaving the Democratic Center party. This event introduced a new contender and affected market perceptions of Abelardo de la Espriella's and other candidates' chances.
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay launches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 32%2%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the killed candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his presidential candidacy, aiming to continue his son's political legacy. This event influenced market dynamics by introducing a new contender and shifting voter attention.
Abelardo de la Espriella joins international right-wing network with Carta de Madrid
Abelardo de la Espriella formalized his adhesion to the Carta de Madrid, aligning with international right-wing leaders like Santiago Abascal and Javier Milei. This move aimed to bolster his campaign by associating with a global network defending property rights and opposing leftist movements, enhancing his profile among conservative voters.
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, running under a small party after leaving the Democratic Center. This event highlighted the crowded field but did not shift market leadership away from Iván Cepeda Castro.
Abelardo de la Espriella's ultraconservative stance gains attention
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 31%8%
Abelardo de la Espriella, an ultraconservative lawyer admiring Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, gained attention for his promise to take a hardline approach against criminal groups, briefly boosting his market position before it declined.
Iván Cepeda Castro leads in early polls as left-wing candidate
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 52%5%
Iván Cepeda Castro, a senator from the Historical Pact coalition, emerged as a frontrunner in early 2026 polls, reflecting growing support for his candidacy in the presidential race. This boosted market confidence in his chances of winning the first round.
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe announces presidential run
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 30%19%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy, aiming to continue his son's political legacy. This added a new contender to the race and influenced market perceptions of candidate viability.
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 30%19%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the race by introducing a new contender and affecting market perceptions of candidate viability. This event likely contributed to shifts in support among conservative candidates.
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the election dynamics by introducing a new contender and influencing voter perceptions of the Democratic Colombia party. This event likely contributed to shifts in candidate support early in the year.
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his son's legacy, adding another candidate to the crowded field.
Labor unions nationwide endorse Iván Cepeda's presidential candidacy
On May 1, 2026, major Colombian labor unions and international labor organizations publicly declared their support for Iván Cepeda, consolidating his base among working-class voters and enhancing his electoral prospects.
Iván Cepeda receives strong union support on May Day
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 87%11%
On May 1, 2026, major Colombian and international labor unions publicly endorsed Iván Cepeda's presidential campaign, reinforcing his image as a candidate for social justice and workers' rights, which likely boosted his market standing.
Cepeda leads presidential voting intentions in Colombia
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 74%25%
A major poll by Invamer showed Iván Cepeda leading with 31.9% support, surpassing Abelardo de la Espriella at 18.2% and Paloma Valencia at 8.5%, solidifying his position as the frontrunner.
Colombian Senate poll shows Iván Cepeda leading presidential intentions with 31.9% support
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 74%25%
A major poll conducted by Invamer for Noticias Caracol and Blu Radio revealed Iván Cepeda leading with 31.9% support, far ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella at 18.2% and Claudia López at 4.1%, positioning him as the progressive movement's clear frontrunner.
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe launches presidential bid, boosting Ivan Cepeda's poll lead
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%6%
Miguel Uribe's father announced a new candidacy, drawing attention to the race and reinforcing Ivan Cepeda's position as the leading contender in polls, which pushed his market price sharply upward.
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in polls amid left-wing coalition support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%8%
Iván Cepeda Castro, a senator from President Gustavo Petro's left-wing Historical Pact coalition, began gaining significant support in polls, reflecting increased market confidence in his candidacy for the presidency. This surge was likely influenced by his coalition's political strength and Petro's administration's policies.
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy to defend his son's legacy, adding a new dynamic to the crowded presidential field.
Iván Cepeda announces presidential candidacy for 2026 elections
Iván Cepeda officially declared his candidacy for the presidency under the Pacto Histórico coalition, positioning himself as a key left-wing contender and setting the stage for his campaign momentum.
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 83%34%
Miguel Uribe Turbay was shot during a campaign rally in August 2025 and died from his injuries. His father, Miguel Uribe Londoño, announced plans to run for president, potentially energizing the Afro-Colombian political movement and affecting market perceptions of viable candidates.
Iván Cepeda officially registers candidacy for 2026 presidential election
Iván Cepeda, a senator from the Historic Pact party, officially registered his candidacy and was considered an initial favorite, which supported his early market lead.
Father of slain Colombian presidential candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
The father of Miguel Uribe Turbay, who was shot and killed during a campaign rally in August 2025, announced plans to run for Colombia's presidency, potentially influencing market activity as the election approaches.
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