Recent mistrials in Harvey Weinstein’s New York retrial—following the 2020 conviction’s overturn on appeal—combined with his pending appeal of the 16-year Los Angeles sentence have driven trader consensus toward “No Prison Time” as the dominant outcome. At 73, the former producer’s health, age-related factors, and repeated jury deadlocks on key charges create realistic pathways to time served, reduced sentencing, or release without further incarceration. Ongoing plea discussions and sentencing delays scheduled around fall 2025 add volatility, while historical patterns in high-profile cases show courts weighing cumulative punishment against practical limits. These dynamics keep longer terms like 20–30 years as low-probability tail risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Harvey Weinstein入狱时间？
Harvey Weinstein入狱时间？
无监禁时间 79.8%
20-30年 8.6%
10-20年 7.2%
少于5年 4.3%
$1,061,866 交易量
$1,061,866 交易量
2025-12-31
无监禁时间
80%
少于5年
4%
5-10年
2%
10-20年
7%
20-30年
9%
30年以上
3%
无监禁时间 79.8%
20-30年 8.6%
10-20年 7.2%
少于5年 4.3%
$1,061,866 交易量
$1,061,866 交易量
2025-12-31
无监禁时间
$370,617 交易量
80%
少于5年
$139,252 交易量
4%
5-10年
$88,515 交易量
2%
10-20年
$167,987 交易量
7%
20-30年
$211,310 交易量
9%
30年以上
$84,185 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent mistrials in Harvey Weinstein’s New York retrial—following the 2020 conviction’s overturn on appeal—combined with his pending appeal of the 16-year Los Angeles sentence have driven trader consensus toward “No Prison Time” as the dominant outcome. At 73, the former producer’s health, age-related factors, and repeated jury deadlocks on key charges create realistic pathways to time served, reduced sentencing, or release without further incarceration. Ongoing plea discussions and sentencing delays scheduled around fall 2025 add volatility, while historical patterns in high-profile cases show courts weighing cumulative punishment against practical limits. These dynamics keep longer terms like 20–30 years as low-probability tail risks.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
交易量
$1,061,866结束日期
2025-12-31市场开放时间
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent mistrials in Harvey Weinstein’s New York retrial—following the 2020 conviction’s overturn on appeal—combined with his pending appeal of the 16-year Los Angeles sentence have driven trader consensus toward “No Prison Time” as the dominant outcome. At 73, the former producer’s health, age-related factors, and repeated jury deadlocks on key charges create realistic pathways to time served, reduced sentencing, or release without further incarceration. Ongoing plea discussions and sentencing delays scheduled around fall 2025 add volatility, while historical patterns in high-profile cases show courts weighing cumulative punishment against practical limits. These dynamics keep longer terms like 20–30 years as low-probability tail risks.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,061,866结束日期
2025-12-31市场开放时间
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent mistrials in Harvey Weinstein’s New York retrial—following the 2020 conviction’s overturn on appeal—combined with his pending appeal of the 16-year Los Angeles sentence have driven trader consensus toward “No Prison Time” as the dominant outcome. At 73, the former producer’s health, age-related factors, and repeated jury deadlocks on key charges create realistic pathways to time served, reduced sentencing, or release without further incarceration. Ongoing plea discussions and sentencing delays scheduled around fall 2025 add volatility, while historical patterns in high-profile cases show courts weighing cumulative punishment against practical limits. These dynamics keep longer terms like 20–30 years as low-probability tail risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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