Ongoing US naval blockade and Iranian enforcement measures in the 2026 Iran conflict continue to suppress vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil flows. Pre-conflict daily averages exceeded 60 ships, but recent maritime intelligence shows near-zero transits amid mine risks, insurance spikes, and redirected vessels, positioning the 25-49 weekly outcome—with its 50.5% market-implied probability—as the consensus range reflecting persistent low single-digit daily crossings. Limited diplomatic signals and partial clearances under strict protocols have allowed sporadic movements without restoring normal volumes, while traders price in the elevated uncertainty ahead of any potential de-escalation milestones.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于25-49 48%
50-74 44%
<25 18%
75-99 11%
最新
最新
2026-06-07
<25
18%
25-49
48%
50-74
44%
75-99
11%
100+
7%
25-49 48%
50-74 44%
<25 18%
75-99 11%
最新
最新
2026-06-07
<25
$519 交易量
18%
25-49
$34 交易量
48%
50-74
$15 交易量
44%
75-99
$15 交易量
11%
100+
$90 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 1, 2026, through June 7, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US naval blockade and Iranian enforcement measures in the 2026 Iran conflict continue to suppress vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil flows. Pre-conflict daily averages exceeded 60 ships, but recent maritime intelligence shows near-zero transits amid mine risks, insurance spikes, and redirected vessels, positioning the 25-49 weekly outcome—with its 50.5% market-implied probability—as the consensus range reflecting persistent low single-digit daily crossings. Limited diplomatic signals and partial clearances under strict protocols have allowed sporadic movements without restoring normal volumes, while traders price in the elevated uncertainty ahead of any potential de-escalation milestones.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 1, 2026, through June 7, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Jun 1, 2026, 12:23 PM ET
交易量
$528结束日期
2026-06-07市场开放时间
Jun 1, 2026, 12:23 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 1, 2026, through June 7, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US naval blockade and Iranian enforcement measures in the 2026 Iran conflict continue to suppress vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil flows. Pre-conflict daily averages exceeded 60 ships, but recent maritime intelligence shows near-zero transits amid mine risks, insurance spikes, and redirected vessels, positioning the 25-49 weekly outcome—with its 50.5% market-implied probability—as the consensus range reflecting persistent low single-digit daily crossings. Limited diplomatic signals and partial clearances under strict protocols have allowed sporadic movements without restoring normal volumes, while traders price in the elevated uncertainty ahead of any potential de-escalation milestones.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 1, 2026, through June 7, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$528结束日期
2026-06-07市场开放时间
Jun 1, 2026, 12:23 PM ETOngoing US naval blockade and Iranian enforcement measures in the 2026 Iran conflict continue to suppress vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil flows. Pre-conflict daily averages exceeded 60 ships, but recent maritime intelligence shows near-zero transits amid mine risks, insurance spikes, and redirected vessels, positioning the 25-49 weekly outcome—with its 50.5% market-implied probability—as the consensus range reflecting persistent low single-digit daily crossings. Limited diplomatic signals and partial clearances under strict protocols have allowed sporadic movements without restoring normal volumes, while traders price in the elevated uncertainty ahead of any potential de-escalation milestones.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题