Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations over Iran's nuclear program center on the fate of its approximately 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium. U.S. officials have described an apparent commitment by Tehran to relinquish the stockpile as part of any initial framework, with options including transfer to a third country, on-site destruction, or monitored down-blending. Iranian sources, however, state that no such agreement exists, that nuclear issues remain outside preliminary deals, and that Supreme Leader directives prohibit export of the material. Talks have produced tentative understandings on ceasefires and sanctions relief but continue to stall on verification, enrichment limits, and stockpile removal, with 60-day negotiation periods now under discussion. These unresolved gaps shape trader assessments of timelines for any public Iranian agreement to surrender the stockpile.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Trump warns of renewed strikes if Iran does not surrender uranium by end of June
June 30 drops to 9%12%
Trump warned that if no agreement was reached by the end of his China trip, the United States could resume military action. The renewed threat further eroded confidence, pushing the Yes probability for the June‑30 contract down to a historic low of 9 % by June 2.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium
June 30 drops to 12%8%
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson again rejected US demands for surrender, causing a brief dip in the June‑30 odds after earlier optimism.
Iran denies any agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 dips to 44%3%
Iran again denied any agreement to surrender the stockpile, stating the nuclear issue would be addressed later in final talks. The denial caused a second dip in Yes odds for all three contracts, bringing the December‑31 market back down to the high‑40 % range.
Trump nears Iran nuclear deal as Tehran agrees to surrender enriched uranium
June 30 jumps to 26%8%
Benzinga reported that Iran had tentatively agreed to relinquish its stockpile as a condition of a nascent nuclear agreement, reinforcing the upward trend in the June‑30 market.
Trump vows the U.S. will retrieve or destroy Iran’s uranium stockpile
July 31 jumps to 34%6%
Trump reiterated that the United States would retrieve or destroy Iran’s uranium, emphasizing a hard‑line stance. The repeated pressure produced a modest rebound in Yes prices for the July‑31 market (up to 34 %).
Iran rejects enriched uranium transfer citing distrust of US
May 31 drops to 0%9%
Iran’s Foreign Minister publicly stated that transferring enriched uranium is not on the agenda due to distrust of the US, reinforcing skepticism and causing market prices for earlier surrender deadlines to drop sharply.
Trump claims Iran agrees to give up enriched uranium in nuclear deal
President Trump announced Iran had agreed to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium as part of a broader peace agreement, causing a temporary market rally.
Iran issues military warning over US vessel seizures amid uranium tensions
July 31 plunges to 23%21%
Iran issued a military warning in response to US vessel seizures, escalating tensions and reducing market confidence in Iran surrendering uranium by July 31, contributing to price declines for near-term surrender deadlines.
Iran agrees to give up uranium in critical breakthrough announced by Trump
May 31 jumps to 16%10%
Trump announced a largely negotiated deal including Iran’s willingness to suspend uranium enrichment and surrender nuclear material, though details remained unconfirmed by Iran. This announcement briefly boosted market optimism for uranium surrender by May 31.
US President Trump announces largely negotiated deal including uranium surrender
December 31 jumps to 44%11%
President Trump announced that a deal with Iran had been largely negotiated, including Iran's commitment to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile. This announcement boosted market confidence and prices for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
May 31 plunges to 1%15%
Following reports of an agreement, Iran officially denied having agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, stating the nuclear issue was not part of the preliminary deal. This denial caused market skepticism and price declines, especially for earlier surrender deadlines.
Trump secures Iran deal to surrender ‘nuclear dust’ uranium stockpile: Report
December 31 rises to 46%1%
Reports indicated that Iran agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile under a developing deal with the US, with Trump framing the uranium as 'nuclear dust' and emphasizing the importance of dismantling Iran's atomic capabilities.
Iran agrees in principle to relinquish enriched uranium in US-led peace deal
December 31 surges to 54%18%
Reports emerged that Iran agreed in principle to give up its highly enriched uranium stockpile as part of a US-led peace framework, involving multiple regional actors and signaling a major diplomatic breakthrough, which lifted market prices.
Reports of Iran agreeing to give up uranium in critical breakthrough
December 31 rises to 48%4%
Reports emerged that Iran had verbally indicated willingness to suspend uranium enrichment and surrender nuclear material as part of a deal, with President Trump announcing a largely negotiated agreement including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This news briefly boosted market prices but uncertainty remained about finalization.
Iran agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium – multiple sources
Multiple outlets (ANI, Reuters, etc.) published similar reports confirming Iran’s in‑principle agreement to relinquish its stockpile. The consensus reinforced market optimism, keeping the Yes odds for the June‑30 contract above 20 % for a short period before the subsequent denial wave.
Trump announces near-final Iran deal including uranium surrender
December 31 jumps to 55%5%
President Trump announced that a largely negotiated memorandum of understanding with Iran includes surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile, signaling a major diplomatic breakthrough and increasing market confidence.
Iran agrees to give up uranium in critical breakthrough from Trump announcement
December 31 rises to 47%4%
Reports indicated Iranian officials verbally signaled willingness to suspend uranium enrichment and surrender nuclear material in a deal expected soon, boosting market hopes despite no formal signed agreement yet.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile amid US deal reports
December 31 dips to 41%2%
Following reports of an agreement, Iranian officials denied any deal to hand over enriched uranium, stating the nuclear issue was not part of the preliminary agreement, which reintroduced doubt and lowered market confidence.
Reports claim Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile in US-led deal
December 31 jumps to 50%11%
The New York Times and other sources reported that Iran agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a US-led peace framework, causing a significant market rally despite lack of public Iranian confirmation.
Iran reportedly agrees to surrender uranium stockpile in US-led deal
December 31 jumps to 52%11%
Reports from credible sources including The New York Times and statements by President Trump indicated Iran's agreement to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, significantly increasing market prices for later deadlines and marking a major diplomatic breakthrough.
Trump announces Iran's uranium surrender in emerging US deal
December 31 jumps to 53%12%
President Trump announced that Iran agreed to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile, a key US demand, signaling a potential breakthrough and causing market optimism for uranium surrender by year-end.
Iran reportedly agrees to hand over enriched uranium stockpile as part of Trump deal
December 31 rises to 50%4%
A report citing US officials confirmed Iran had agreed to surrender its uranium stockpile, a major development that increased market confidence in a resolution.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 drops to 45%8%
Iran officially denied any agreement to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, causing market skepticism and downward pressure on prices for surrender outcomes, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.
Iran agreed to give up enriched uranium in deal announced by Trump, U.S. officials say
December 31 jumps to 46%7%
The New York Times reported that Iran committed to surrendering its highly enriched uranium stockpile as part of an emerging deal with the US, with military pressure playing a role. This report reinforced market optimism for uranium surrender by December 31.
Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium, US officials say
December 31 jumps to 53%14%
US officials announced that Iran agreed in principle to a deal to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting market confidence in the December 31 outcome while leaving uncertainty about formal agreement and verification.
Trump secures Iran deal to surrender ‘nuclear dust’ uranium stockpile: Report
December 31 jumps to 53%14%
The New York Times reported that Iranian officials signed a statement promising to surrender their enriched uranium stockpile, a key breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations, which supported market gains for the December 31 outcome.
Reports say Iran agreed in principle to surrender enriched uranium in emerging US deal
December 31 jumps to 43%10%
U.S. officials and President Trump announced that Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal, briefly boosting market optimism despite ongoing uncertainty about implementation details.
NYT: Iran verbally agrees to give up its highly enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 72%31%
The New York Times reported, citing two U.S. officials, that Iran had verbally agreed to surrender its stockpile as part of a broader peace framework. The report triggered a rapid swing of +31 points on May 24, pushing the December‑31 Yes probability to its peak of 72 %.
US officials say Iran agrees in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
US officials disclosed that Iran has agreed in principle to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal, significantly boosting market optimism for a YES outcome by year-end.
Trump secures Iran deal to surrender ‘nuclear dust’ uranium stockpile: Report
June 30 jumps to 31%13%
The New York Times reported that Iranian officials signed a statement promising to surrender the stockpile, reviving market confidence and pushing the June‑30 odds up again.
Trump announces Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium in emerging US deal
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
President Trump publicly announced that Iran agreed to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile, framing it as a key concession in ongoing negotiations and boosting market confidence in a uranium surrender agreement.
Report: Trump secures Iran deal to surrender ‘nuclear dust’ uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
The New York Times reported that Iranian officials signed a statement promising to give up enriched uranium, described by Trump as 'nuclear dust,' marking a significant diplomatic development and raising market optimism despite ongoing skepticism from Iran.
Reports of Iran tentatively agreeing to surrender enriched uranium
December 31 surges to 57%17%
Reports emerged that Iran tentatively agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader nuclear deal with the U.S., causing a temporary increase in market optimism and prices for later surrender dates.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 dips to 45%4%
Iran's government publicly denied any agreement to surrender its enriched uranium, causing market participants to reduce confidence in uranium handover by year-end, reflected in price declines.
Trump states U.S. will seize or destroy Iran's enriched uranium stockpile
President Trump announced the U.S. would seize or destroy Iran's stockpile, reversing earlier claims of a surrender deal and causing a significant drop in Yes pricing across all outcomes.
Iran’s Supreme Leader orders enriched uranium stockpile to remain inside Iran
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile must not be sent abroad, reinforcing Iran’s hardline position and complicating peace negotiations, which negatively impacted market confidence.
Trump states U.S. will seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
May 31 plunges to 9%33%
President Trump declared the U.S. would seize or destroy Iran’s uranium stockpile if necessary, signaling a hardline stance amid stalled negotiations and reducing market optimism for voluntary surrender by May 31.
Iran proposes transferring enriched uranium to Russia in peace deal
December 31 jumps to 51%5%
Iran offered to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia as part of a peace proposal, but the U.S. dismissed it as insufficient, demanding direct surrender. This proposal influenced market prices, particularly for later surrender dates, reflecting ongoing negotiation challenges.
Iran proposes transferring enriched uranium to Russia in peace deal offer
July 31 jumps to 35%10%
Iran offered to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia as part of a peace proposal, diverging from U.S. demands for direct surrender. The U.S. dismissed the offer as insufficient, maintaining demand for physical custody, which kept market optimism low for near-term surrender.
Iran offers to transfer enriched uranium to Russia in proposed peace deal
May 31 dips to 7%4%
Iran proposed transferring its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia as part of peace talks, which the US dismissed as insufficient since it demands uranium surrender to US custody, maintaining market uncertainty.
Iran reiterates refusal to transfer enriched uranium, citing distrust
May 31 plunges to 14%28%
Iran’s Foreign Minister reiterated that transferring enriched uranium abroad is not on the agenda due to distrust of the US, reinforcing skepticism about near-term uranium surrender and causing market prices for May 31 surrender to drop further.
Iran proposes transferring enriched uranium to Russia in peace deal
Iran offered to transfer its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to Russia as part of a peace proposal, signaling a potential third-party solution that complicated U.S. demands for direct surrender.
Iran offers to transfer enriched uranium to Russia in proposed peace deal
July 31 jumps to 32%7%
Iran proposed transferring its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia rather than the US as part of peace talks. The US rejected this offer, demanding uranium be surrendered to American custody. This proposal introduced uncertainty and affected market pricing for uranium surrender by July 31, 2026.
Iran offers to transfer enriched uranium to Russia in proposed peace deal
December 31 rises to 46%4%
Iran proposed transferring its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia as part of a peace proposal, which the US dismissed as insufficient. This introduced uncertainty about uranium custody and affected market pricing.
Oman diplomat says Iran agreed not to stockpile enriched uranium
December 31 rises to 37%2%
Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi stated that Iran agreed in talks with the US never to stockpile enriched uranium, marking a breakthrough in negotiations. This statement suggested progress but did not confirm a public agreement to surrender uranium by March 31, 2026.
Khamenei orders Iran’s enriched uranium to stay inside the country
December 31 dips to 43%4%
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive that the enriched uranium must stay inside Iran. The announcement further eroded market confidence, pulling Yes odds for all three contracts down to the 30‑40 % band.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium, citing distrust
May 31 dips to 6%4%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson publicly rejected US demands to surrender enriched uranium, citing distrust of the US, which decreased market confidence in a uranium handover by the May 31 deadline.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium
June 30 drops to 21%10%
Iran’s foreign ministry publicly rejected any U.S. demand to hand over the stockpile, stating the material would stay in Iran. This denial caused a steep drop in Yes odds for the June‑30 contract, falling to a low of 21 % on May 12.
Iran offers to transfer some enriched uranium to third country but rejects dismantling nuclear facilities
Iran responded to a U.S. peace proposal by offering to transfer part of its enriched uranium stockpile to a third country, but rejected dismantling its nuclear facilities, reflecting partial concession but firm limits, which tempered market optimism.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 dips to 45%4%
Iran's government publicly denied any agreement to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, reinforcing skepticism in the market and causing a decrease in confidence for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
Trump announces Iran agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons, urges uranium surrender
December 31 jumps to 56%12%
President Trump declared Iran's agreement not to pursue nuclear weapons and emphasized the need for Iran to surrender enriched uranium, raising market hopes for a deal by December 31.
US nears framework for Iran deal as Trump demands uranium surrender
December 31 jumps to 47%7%
President Trump announced that Iran agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons and the US intensified pressure for Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile. Despite progress, key obstacles remained, and Iran was reviewing the US peace proposal, causing market uncertainty.
Trump says Iran agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons and to surrender enriched uranium
June 30 rises to 29%3%
President Trump stated that Iran agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons and to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, signaling progress in negotiations. However, key obstacles remained, and skepticism persisted, limiting market gains for near-term surrender dates.
Trump dismisses Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile as worthless but insists on taking it back
May 31 drops to 6%12%
President Trump made contradictory statements dismissing the value of Iran's enriched uranium while simultaneously demanding its surrender, reflecting tensions in US policy and contributing to market uncertainty and price volatility.
Trump dismisses Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile as worthless but demands its surrender
President Trump publicly downplayed the value of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile while simultaneously demanding its surrender, highlighting the contradictory U.S. stance and maintaining pressure on Iran amid stalled negotiations.
Trump says Iran’s enriched uranium is worthless but the U.S. will take it
December 31 dips to 45%2%
Trump dismissed the value of Iran’s uranium while insisting the United States must take possession. The mixed signal dampened optimism, contributing to a decline in Yes prices for the December‑31 market from the high‑70s back toward the 40 % range.
Trump dismisses Iran's enriched uranium stockpile as worthless, then demands it back
June 30 plunges to 19%23%
President Trump publicly downplayed the value of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile but simultaneously insisted on its surrender, reflecting mixed signals that contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
June 30 drops to 28%13%
Iran publicly denied any agreement to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, reversing earlier optimism and causing the June‑30 market to slide back toward lower odds.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
May 31 plunges to 8%34%
Iran's refusal to compromise on surrendering its enriched uranium by the April 30 deadline led to a sharp drop in market prices for that deadline, reflecting diminished expectations for a near-term resolution. Traders shifted focus to later deadlines, anticipating a possible agreement after April.
Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid US-Iran tensions
December 31 jumps to 45%6%
Russian President Putin offered Moscow's readiness to transport and store Iran's enriched uranium, suggesting a potential third-party custodian role and increasing market optimism for uranium surrender by year-end.
Iran issues military warning over US vessel seizures amid uranium tensions
June 30 plunges to 33%27%
Iran issued a military warning over US vessel seizures, escalating tensions and reducing market confidence in a near-term uranium surrender agreement. No concrete diplomatic progress emerged, leading to a drop in market prices for uranium surrender by April 30 and June 30.
Trump announces Iran has agreed to surrender enriched uranium in emerging US deal
June 30 surges to 41%19%
President Trump announced that Iran had agreed to surrender its highly enriched uranium in a developing US‑Iran deal. The announcement boosted optimism for a June‑30 surrender, pushing the market up sharply.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium, Trump says it no longer concerns him
December 31 drops to 33%9%
Iran officially rejected U.S. demands to surrender enriched uranium, with Trump stating the issue no longer concerns him, causing market confidence to drop as the likelihood of a surrender agreement diminished.
Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid tensions
December 31 rises to 42%4%
Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to transport and store Iran's enriched uranium, referencing a precedent from 2015. This proposal was seen as a positive diplomatic development, supporting market optimism for a uranium surrender agreement by December 31.
Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium, US officials say
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
US officials reported Iran agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting the December 31 market to 50.5% YES and signaling stronger market confidence in a resolution.
Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid US-Iran tensions
December 31 jumps to 45%6%
Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed that Russia could transport and store Iran's enriched uranium, referencing a precedent from 2015, which was interpreted by markets as increasing the likelihood of Iran surrendering uranium by December 31, boosting optimism for a resolution.
IAEA, Russia, and US hold talks on extracting Iran’s enriched uranium
December 31 jumps to 47%8%
The IAEA, Russia, and the US engaged in discussions focused on extracting Iran’s enriched uranium from the damaged Isfahan site, indicating potential progress in diplomatic efforts to resolve the uranium stockpile issue. This raised market expectations for a possible uranium surrender by year-end.
Iran denies agreeing to send enriched uranium abroad, calls it 'sacred'
December 31 plunges to 63%18%
Iran publicly rejected claims of agreeing to transfer enriched uranium abroad, dampening market optimism and causing a price decline across surrender deadlines.
Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid U.S.-Iran tensions
December 31 surges to 47%22%
Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed Moscow would transport and store Iran's enriched uranium, a move that briefly boosted market confidence in a resolution by December 31.
Iran denies agreeing to transfer enriched uranium abroad, calls it 'sacred'
December 31 plunges to 39%42%
Following Trump's announcement, Iranian officials publicly denied any agreement to transfer enriched uranium outside Iran, emphasizing the uranium's sacred status, which introduced doubt and caused market prices to retreat from prior highs.
President Trump claims Iran agreed to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 75%48%
President Trump publicly announced that Iran had agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, describing it as 'nuclear dust' and signaling a near-complete diplomatic breakthrough, which temporarily boosted market optimism despite lack of independent confirmation from Iran.
President Trump announces Iran agreed to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 81%48%
President Trump publicly claimed that Iran had agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, describing it as 'nuclear dust,' which caused a significant surge in market optimism for surrender by December 31 and other deadlines, despite Iran's lack of immediate confirmation.
Iran denies agreeing to transfer enriched uranium abroad
December 31 plunges to 39%36%
Hours after Trump's announcement, Iran's Foreign Ministry publicly denied any agreement to transfer enriched uranium outside Iran, emphasizing the material's sacred status and rejecting US claims. This contradiction caused market uncertainty and tempered the earlier optimism.
Trump announces Iran agreed to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 75%42%
President Trump publicly claimed that Iran had agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, describing it as 'nuclear dust' and signaling a near-complete diplomatic breakthrough. This announcement temporarily increased market optimism about a YES outcome for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid US-Iran tensions
December 31 jumps to 52%14%
Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to transport and store Iran's enriched uranium, referencing a precedent from 2015. This proposal was seen as a positive diplomatic development, increasing market optimism for uranium surrender by December 31.
Trump says no ground troops needed to secure Iran’s uranium
December 31 jumps to 45%5%
President Trump stated that Iran agreed to surrender its enriched uranium and that no U.S. ground troops would be necessary to secure it. This reinforced market optimism about a peaceful resolution and uranium transfer without military intervention.
Iran agrees in talks with US not to stockpile enriched uranium — Oman
December 31 jumps to 39%6%
Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi reported that Iran agreed in talks with the US not to stockpile enriched uranium, marking a breakthrough in negotiations and raising hopes for a comprehensive deal within three months.
Trump claims Iran agreed to surrender enriched uranium
December 31 surges to 81%28%
President Trump announced that Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium and surrender its stockpile, raising market optimism despite lack of public confirmation from Iran. This statement caused a temporary price increase reflecting hopes for a breakthrough.
Trump claims Iran agreed to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
President Trump announced Iran had agreed to surrender its highly enriched uranium, describing it as 'nuclear dust,' which initially boosted the market's Yes pricing for all outcomes.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium
May 31 plunges to 14%33%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated U.S. demands for uranium surrender were non-starters, leading to a sharp decline in Yes pricing, particularly for the May 31 and June 30 outcomes.
US-Iran tensions rise amid logistical challenges to uranium surrender by April 30
May 31 plunges to 8%34%
The Wall Street Journal reported that removing Iran's enriched uranium by April 30 would be an unprecedented challenge for the US, causing market optimism for the April 30 deadline to drop sharply due to operational and diplomatic difficulties.
Russian President Putin offers to store Iran's enriched uranium amid tensions
December 31 surges to 76%52%
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Moscow's readiness to transport and store Iran's enriched uranium, referencing a similar 2015 operation. This offer was seen as a positive diplomatic development, increasing market confidence in a potential uranium surrender by December 31, 2026.
Trump says Iran deal largely negotiated including uranium surrender
December 31 surges to 70%30%
Trump stated the deal to end the Middle East conflict is largely negotiated, including Iran's commitment to relinquish enriched uranium, which raised market expectations for a YES outcome despite unresolved details.
Trump announces Iran has agreed to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 81%54%
President Trump claimed Iran had agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader peace deal, boosting market confidence significantly. However, Iran did not confirm this, leaving uncertainty.
Trump vows U.S. will retrieve, likely destroy Iran's uranium stockpile
December 31 jumps to 53%14%
President Trump declared the U.S. intention to retrieve and potentially destroy Iran's enriched uranium, increasing pressure on Iran and raising market expectations for uranium surrender by year-end.
US considers $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal with Iran
December 31 surges to 64%31%
Reports emerged that the US and Iran were negotiating a deal involving $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran giving up its enriched uranium stockpile. This raised market expectations for a uranium surrender agreement, causing price fluctuations.
Wall Street Journal reports US faces unprecedented challenge to secure Iran uranium by April 2026
May 31 plunges to 9%33%
The Wall Street Journal detailed the logistical and military difficulties the US would encounter in securing Iran's enriched uranium by the April 30 deadline, leading to a sharp drop in market optimism for that outcome.
US officials report Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium
December 31 surges to 80%55%
US officials disclosed that Iran agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting market optimism for a uranium surrender deal despite the lack of formal agreement or IAEA verification.
Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium, US officials say
June 30 surges to 55%27%
US officials said Iran had agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched‑uranium stockpile. The news was interpreted as a concrete step toward surrender, lifting market odds for a “Yes” on the June‑30 contract.
Trump claims Iran has agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 81%46%
President Trump announced on a televised interview that Iran had agreed to hand over its highly‑enriched uranium stockpile, a claim later echoed by Reuters. The statement sparked a sharp rise in Yes prices across all three settlement dates, most noticeably a jump to 81 % on April 17 for the December‑31 contract.
U.S. and Iran negotiate $20 bn frozen‑funds swap for uranium surrender
June 30 surges to 54%23%
U.S. and Iran entered advanced talks on a three‑page cash‑for‑uranium framework, linking the release of $20 billion in frozen assets to Tehran’s surrender of its enriched stockpile. The news gave traders hope of a deal, pushing Yes odds higher for the June‑30 contract.
Trump claims Iran has agreed to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 surges to 81%42%
President Trump announced that Iran is very close to a peace deal including surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting market optimism despite lack of Iranian confirmation and ongoing negotiation uncertainties.
US officials say Iran agrees in principle to dispose of enriched uranium
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
US officials disclosed that Iran agreed in principle to a deal to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting market confidence for uranium surrender by December 31, 2026, though uncertainty remained about formalization and verification.
Wall Street Journal reports unprecedented US challenge to Iran uranium surrender by April 2026
May 31 plunges to 33%20%
The WSJ detailed logistical and military challenges for the US to secure Iran's enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, leading to market skepticism and a price drop for the April 30 outcome.
Iran uranium surrender faces unprecedented US challenge by April 2026
June 30 surges to 55%33%
Wall Street Journal analysis highlighted logistical challenges to a April‑30 surrender, pulling market odds down for the earlier deadline and shifting focus to the June‑30 contract.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium
May 31 plunges to 8%34%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson publicly rejected U.S. demands to surrender enriched uranium, signaling a hardline stance that decreased market confidence in a near-term uranium handover. This rejection complicated diplomatic efforts and led to a drop in market prices for surrender by April and May deadlines.
Iran denies agreeing to send enriched uranium abroad
Iranian officials publicly rejected U.S. demands to surrender enriched uranium, calling the material 'sacred' and denying any agreement to transfer it, causing a sharp market correction.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium
December 31 drops to 46%6%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson publicly rejected U.S. demands to hand over enriched uranium, reinforcing Iran's hardline stance and causing market prices for uranium surrender to decline further.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium, citing distrust
May 31 plunges to 10%32%
Iran's Foreign Minister publicly stated that transferring enriched uranium to the US was not on the agenda, citing distrust. This reinforced market skepticism about Iran surrendering its uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026, leading to a drop in market prices for earlier deadlines.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium
December 31 plunges to 33%20%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson publicly rejected U.S. demands to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, reinforcing Iran's hardline stance and decreasing market confidence in a near-term uranium handover.
US Defense Secretary warns Iran to surrender uranium or face seizure
June 30 plunges to 24%18%
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Iran that the US would seize its enriched uranium stockpile if Iran did not surrender it, escalating tensions and impacting market expectations for uranium surrender by June 30 and later dates.
White House says Iran indicated willingness to turn over enriched uranium stocks
White House press secretary stated Iran had indicated it would turn over its enriched uranium stocks, raising market hopes for a potential agreement and briefly supporting prices.
US demands Iran surrender enriched uranium or faces seizure
December 31 drops to 27%7%
US officials publicly demanded Iran hand over its enriched uranium stockpile or face seizure, escalating tensions. Iran rejected transfer demands, citing sovereignty and distrust, which caused market skepticism about imminent uranium surrender.
White House says Iran agrees to transfer enriched uranium to US
December 31 surges to 81%28%
The White House announced Iran's agreement to transfer enriched uranium, boosting market confidence temporarily, reflected in a price peak for the December 31 outcome.
White House claims Iran agrees to transfer enriched uranium to U.S.
December 31 jumps to 47%5%
The U.S. government announced Iran had agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile to American custody, boosting market confidence for a resolution by December 31.
Iran rejects US demand to hand over enriched uranium
December 31 plunges to 25%17%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson explicitly rejected US demands to surrender enriched uranium, signaling a firm refusal that further dampened market expectations for a uranium handover by the end of 2026.
Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
May 31 plunges to 9%33%
Reports indicated Iran's refusal to compromise on surrendering its enriched uranium by the April 30, 2026 deadline, leading to a sharp drop in market prices for the April 30 contract and increased skepticism about an early resolution.
WSJ reports US faces unprecedented challenge to remove Iran's enriched uranium by April 2026
May 31 plunges to 26%16%
The Wall Street Journal detailed the logistical and military difficulties the US would face in securing Iran's enriched uranium by April 30, 2026, leading to a sharp drop in market optimism for that deadline.
WSJ reports unprecedented US challenge to remove Iran's enriched uranium by April 2026
May 31 plunges to 8%34%
The Wall Street Journal detailed the operational and diplomatic difficulties the US faces in securing Iran's enriched uranium by the April 30 deadline, causing market prices for the April 30 contract to drop sharply due to increased skepticism.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
December 31 drops to 40%13%
Iran's government publicly denied reaching any agreement to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, reinforcing its hardline stance and causing market confidence in uranium surrender by year-end to decrease significantly.
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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