U.S. to block Iranian airlines’ landing spots, refueling and ticket sales

Bessent announced U.S. measures to shut down Iranian airlines’ landing and refueling rights. Though not a direct airspace closure, the announcement added uncertainty, contributing to the final drop of “Yes” odds to the market’s lowest level.

Iran's western airspace closure ends, flights resume with restrictions

May 31 dips to 8%3%

The temporary closure of western Iranian airspace ended on May 25, with flights resuming under daylight-only restrictions and requiring Civil Aviation Authority approval. The limited nature and short duration of the closure led to a decline in market odds for a major closure by the end of May.

Diplomatic efforts continue amid airspace restrictions

May 31 plunges to 8%15%

As Iran maintained its western airspace closure and flight restrictions, diplomatic efforts intensified with mediators visiting Tehran to prevent escalation, signaling a potential de-escalation and reducing likelihood of broader airspace closure.

Iran extends western airspace closure until May 25 amid stalled diplomacy

May 31 plunges to 16%15%

Iran maintained the closure of its western airspace until May 25, 2026, as diplomatic efforts with the US stalled and military tensions remained high, but no broader airspace closure was announced.

Iran western airspace closure ends, flights resume with restrictions

May 31 plunges to 7%19%

The temporary closure of western Iranian airspace ended on May 25, with flights resuming under daylight-only restrictions and requiring fresh approvals. This limited closure did not meet the criteria for a full major closure affecting the entire country or multiple major airports, leading to a sharp decline in market odds.

Market prices fall sharply as Iran's western airspace closure ends

May 31 plunges to 4%24%

Following the expiration of the temporary western airspace closure on May 25, market prices for a closure by May 31 and June 15 dropped significantly, reflecting the limited duration and regional scope of the closure and the absence of a broader nationwide shutdown.

Iran restricts operations to eight airports with daylight-only flights

May 31 plunges to 28%72%

Iran imposed strict restrictions on air traffic nationwide, allowing operations only at eight major airports with daylight-only flights and requiring fresh flight approvals. This partial but broad restriction contributed to market uncertainty and a sharp price drop as it did not meet the criteria for a full major closure.

Iran officially announces temporary closure of western airspace

May 31 surges to 100%56%

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed the temporary closure of airspace over western Iran, suspending civil flight permits at airports in the western sector and restricting operations to daylight hours at eight major airports. This official announcement briefly pushed market odds near 100% for a major closure.

Iran imposes strict restrictions, keeps only 8 airports operational in western airspace

May 31 plunges to 38%60%

Following the May 22 announcement, Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed cancellation of all commercial and civilian passenger flight permits in western Tehran Flight Information Region, allowing operations only at eight major airports under daylight-only restrictions. This reinforced the partial nature of the closure and limited its impact on the market's major closure criteria.

Iran confirms major closure of western airspace amid rising US tensions

May 31 surges to 99%73%

On May 23, Iran's Civil Aviation Organization officially announced the temporary closure of airspace over western Iran, confirming suspension of civil flight permits in that sector. This confirmation caused market prices to surge to near 100% as traders priced in a potential full shutdown.

Tehran reiterates western airspace shutdown, daylight‑only rules for eight airports

May 27 surges to 64%18%

A follow‑up statement confirmed the closure would stay in effect through May 25 and detailed the daylight‑only operation at the eight remaining airports, reinforcing market expectations of a qualifying major closure.

Tehran imposes strict restrictions on western airspace, only 8 airports operational

June 30 plunges to 31%68%

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization issued a NOTAM closing most airports in western Tehran airspace, allowing operations only at eight major airports under daylight-only rules. This reflected heightened military alert and security concerns amid reports of US strike preparations, sustaining market uncertainty and elevated prices.

Iran closes western airspace amid US military strike fears

May 27 surges to 99%68%

On May 23, 2026, Iran's Civil Aviation Organization announced a temporary closure of airspace over western Iran, suspending civil flight permits in that sector amid reports of possible US military strikes. This major regional closure affected multiple airports and heightened market expectations of a broader airspace shutdown.

Iran confirms major airspace closure affecting multiple airports

May 24 surges to 99%90%

By May 23, reports confirmed that Iran initiated a major closure of its airspace affecting commercial flights across multiple key airports, meeting the market's criteria for a broad suspension not due to weather. This confirmation caused the market prices for all resolution dates to jump to near 100%.

Ahvaz and Mahshahr airports reopen as Iran eases some regional restrictions

June 30 jumps to 30%5%

A CGTN report noted the reopening of Ahvaz and Mahshahr airports, signalling partial easing but not affecting the western FIR closure, marginally tempering market optimism.

Iran extends western airspace closure with strict flight restrictions

May 31 plunges to 6%32%

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed the temporary closure of western airspace with only eight airports operational under daylight-only restrictions. All previous flight permissions were revoked, requiring airlines to obtain fresh approvals, reflecting heightened military alert amid fears of US strikes. This sustained closure disrupted regional and international flights, impacting market sentiment.

Iran confirms western airspace closure with strict flight restrictions

May 31 surges to 100%54%

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization officially confirmed the closure of western airspace, restricting operations to eight major airports under daylight-only rules and requiring fresh flight approvals. This reinforced market expectations of a major closure, briefly pushing odds to near 100%.

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirms temporary closure of western airspace amid US strike fears

June 30 surges to 99%53%

On May 23, Iran officially confirmed the temporary closure of its western airspace, suspending civil flight permits in that sector due to intelligence of possible US military strikes. This announcement reinforced the regional closure but did not extend to a broad national airspace shutdown, impacting market prices positively but not enough to indicate a major closure.

Iran reopens some western airports but maintains daylight-only flight restrictions

May 31 drops to 1%12%

On May 23, Iran's Civil Aviation Organization announced the reopening of Ahvaz and Mahshahr airports but maintained strict restrictions, including daylight-only operations and required flight approvals. This partial easing did not constitute a major closure, leading to a decline in market odds for a broad airspace shutdown by May 31 and June 15.

Iran imposes strict restrictions, only 8 airports operational nationwide

May 31 plunges to 31%23%

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization announced strict air traffic restrictions nationwide, with only eight major airports operational under daylight-only conditions, reflecting heightened military alert amid US tensions.

Iran confirms western airspace closure with strict flight restrictions

June 30 jumps to 50%13%

Iran officially confirmed the closure of western airspace, allowing operations only at eight major airports under daylight-only rules and requiring fresh flight approvals. This reinforced market expectations temporarily but was limited to a regional closure, not a full national shutdown.

Iran closes western airspace amid rising US tensions, restricting flights to daylight hours

May 24 drops to 14%12%

Iran temporarily closed its western airspace from May 22 to May 25, suspending all civil flight permits in the western sector of the Tehran FIR, with only eight airports operational under daylight-only restrictions. This closure was amid heightened regional tensions and security concerns but was limited in scope and duration, affecting market expectations for a full major closure.

Iran closes western airspace, only 8 airports operational; Rubio hints at breakthrough

May 27 surges to 57%26%

Indian media reported the NOTAM and highlighted that only eight airports (including IKA and THR) would stay open, which boosted trader confidence that the market’s “Yes” outcome was in play.

Iran civil aviation suspends all previous clearances; daylight‑only flights at eight western airports

May 27 surges to 57%26%

Iran International published the exact NOTAM text, confirming the suspension of previous clearances and the daylight‑only rule, cementing the perception of a qualifying closure and pushing the market to its peak.

Indian airlines issue advisories amid ongoing Iran airspace disruptions

May 31 surges to 96%58%

In mid-May 2026, Indian carriers Air India and IndiGo issued advisories warning passengers of flight delays and rerouting due to continued closure or restrictions of Iranian airspace amid regional tensions. These advisories indicate ongoing operational disruptions consistent with a major airspace closure or severe restrictions affecting multiple major Iranian airports.

Commercial flights resume at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport

Commercial flights resumed at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport after a period of closure, indicating a partial reopening of Iranian airspace. This partial reopening does not constitute a broad closure, so it does not qualify as a 'Yes' event under market criteria.

Iran issues NOTAM closing most airports in western Tehran FIR until May 25

May 24 drops to 14%12%

Iran's Civil Aviation Authority issued a NOTAM closing all airports in the western part of the Tehran Flight Information Region from May 22 to May 25, allowing operations only during daylight hours at eight specific airports. This partial closure raised concerns about a major airspace shutdown but did not fully meet the market's criteria for a broad closure affecting multiple key airports across Iran.

Iran temporarily closes western airspace, suspending civil flight permits

May 27 surges to 99%81%

Iran's Civil Aviation Authority issued a NOTAM closing all airports in the western part of the Tehran Flight Information Region from May 22 to May 25, suspending civil flight permits amid reports of possible U.S. military strikes. This closure affected multiple major airports and was a significant escalation in airspace restrictions.

Iran reopens airspace after five-hour closure; five carriers resume services

After a brief five-hour airspace closure, Iran reopened its airspace with five carriers resuming services, marking a significant market event. This reopening caused a sharp price drop across all outcomes.

Iran closes western airspace amid fears of US military strikes

June 30 surges to 99%47%

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization issued a NOTAM suspending civil flight permits over western Iran from May 22 to May 25, restricting operations to daylight hours at eight major airports. This partial closure was in response to escalating tensions and reports of possible US strikes, briefly driving market odds for a major closure to near 100%.

Iran issues NOTAM closing western Tehran Flight Information Region airspace

May 24 surges to 99%91%

Iran's Civil Aviation Authority announced a temporary closure of airspace over western Iran, suspending civil flight permits at multiple airports amid reports of possible US military strikes. This broad closure affected key airports and was a major escalation in airspace restrictions, causing market prices to surge sharply.

Iran closes western airspace amid fears of imminent US military strikes

May 27 plunges to 0%31%

Iran's Civil Aviation Authority issued a NOTAM closing nearly all airports in western Tehran airspace, suspending civil flight permits at multiple airports and restricting operations to daylight hours. This broad closure was a response to rising tensions and reports of possible US strikes, causing airlines to reroute flights and raising market expectations of a major airspace closure.

Iran announces temporary closure of western airspace amid US strike fears

May 27 surges to 98%67%

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization issued a NOTAM suspending civil flight permits over western Iran, affecting multiple airports and restricting flights to daylight hours. This major regional closure heightened market expectations of a broader airspace shutdown, causing a sharp increase in odds for a closure by May 27 and May 31.

Iran issues NOTAM closing western airspace until May 25 amid US strike fears

May 27 surges to 99%68%

Iran's Civil Aviation Authority issued a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) closing all airports in the western part of the Tehran Flight Information Region from May 22 to May 25, suspending commercial and civilian passenger flights in that region. This partial closure amid rising military tensions and reports of possible US strikes caused a temporary spike in market prices but did not meet the criteria for a major closure affecting multiple key airports broadly.

Iran closes western airspace, suspending all commercial flights in the region

May 31 plunges to 11%16%

Iran's Civil Aviation Authority issued NOTAM OIIX A1010/26 on May 22, closing all airports in the western part of the Tehran Flight Information Region until May 25. This major regional closure was in response to rising military tensions and fears of U.S. military strikes, significantly restricting commercial aviation in western Iran and impacting market expectations for a broader closure.

Iran closes western airspace amid fears of US military strikes

May 31 jumps to 44%6%

Iran's Civil Aviation Authority issued a NOTAM closing nearly all airports in western Tehran airspace until May 25, suspending civil flight permits amid rising tensions and reports of possible US strikes. This broad regional closure affected multiple major airports and raised market expectations for a major airspace shutdown.

Iran temporarily closes western airspace amid US strike fears

May 31 surges to 98%60%

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization announced a temporary closure of airspace over western Iran from May 22 to May 25, suspending all civil flight permits in that region amid reports of possible US military strikes and stalled diplomatic talks. This partial closure affected several airports but did not meet the market's criteria for a major closure, causing a spike and then a decline in market prices.

Iran closes all airports in western Tehran airspace with few exceptions

May 31 surges to 54%17%

Social media and official notices reported Iran closed nearly all airports in western Tehran airspace except limited daylight operations, fueling fears of an imminent US attack and increasing market volatility.

Iran closes western airspace from May 22 to May 25 amid US strike fears

June 30 surges to 99%42%

Iran's Civil Aviation Authority issued a NOTAM closing all airports in the western part of the Tehran Flight Information Region from May 22 to May 25, suspending civil flight permits amid reports of possible US military strikes. This closure affected multiple major airports and restricted operations to daylight hours with fresh flight approvals, significantly escalating airspace restrictions and briefly pushing market odds near 100%.

Iran's Civil Aviation Authority issues NOTAM closing western Tehran airspace until May 25

June 30 surges to 99%51%

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization announced a temporary closure of airspace over western Iran, suspending civil flight permits in that sector amid reports of possible U.S. military strikes. This closure affected multiple major airports and significantly increased market expectations of a major closure, briefly pushing odds near 100%.

Iran issues NOTAM closing most airports in western Tehran FIR until May 25

June 30 surges to 71%39%

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization announced a temporary closure of airspace over western Iran from May 22 to May 25, suspending civil flight permits in that sector amid fears of US military strikes. This closure affected multiple airports in the western Tehran Flight Information Region, causing airlines to reroute flights and operate under daylight-only restrictions, raising market expectations of a broader closure.

Iran shuts western airspace, all civil flight permits suspended until May 25

May 27 surges to 57%26%

The Iranian Civil Aviation Organization issued NOTAM OIIX‑A1010/26 closing the western Tehran FIR to all civil flights, allowing only eight airports to operate on daylight‑only basis. This broad suspension of commercial flights covering Mehrabad and Imam Khomeini airports triggered a sharp jump in the market’s “Yes” probability.

Iran's top diplomat issues direct threat against US amid crackdown on protests

May 24 plunges to 21%18%

Iran's foreign minister issued a direct threat against the United States, warning of retaliation if attacked. This diplomatic escalation contributed to market volatility, with prices fluctuating from 3% to 28% over the May 20-21 period.

Iran's top diplomat issues direct threat to US amid crackdown on protests

May 21 plunges to 4%15%

Iran's foreign minister issued a direct threat against the U.S., warning of retaliation if attacked. This heightened tensions and briefly increased the market price.

Trump administration confirms El Paso airspace closure due to cartel drone threat

The Trump administration confirmed the FAA closure of El Paso airspace was due to Mexican cartel drones breaching the airspace, with the Pentagon using anti-drone laser technology to disable them. This was a U.S. airspace closure, not Iranian, and did not affect the Iran market.

Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport amid ceasefire

May 31 drops to 30%11%

Iran resumed commercial flights from Imam Khomeini International Airport for the first time since the war began, signaling a de-escalation and lowering market expectations for a major airspace closure by the end of May.

Iran extends airspace closure amid rising protests and regional tensions

May 31 jumps to 49%12%

Iran temporarily closed its airspace to most flights except those with official permission amid domestic protests and heightened regional tensions. This closure disrupted many international flights and increased concerns about further restrictions, influencing market expectations of a major closure.

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirms flights back in operation

May 21 drops to 39%7%

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed on Thursday morning that flights were back in operation over the country, leading to a price drop from 46% to 39% on May 21, 2026.

Iran briefly closes airspace to most flights amid protests, then reopens

June 30 plunges to 47%29%

Iran issued a NOTAM temporarily closing its airspace to most flights except international civil arrivals and departures with prior permission amid nationwide protests. The closure was short-lived and flights resumed shortly after, reducing the likelihood of a major prolonged closure.

Iran issues notice temporarily closing airspace to some flights amid protests

May 18 dips to 10%4%

Iran issued a NOTAM temporarily closing its airspace to all flights except international civil arrivals and departures with prior permission, amid nationwide protests and heightened tensions. This partial closure was significant but did not qualify as a major closure affecting multiple key airports broadly.

Airlines cancel Tehran routes amid ongoing Iranian airspace closure

June 30 jumps to 48%14%

Reports of airlines cancelling routes to Tehran and a decline in passenger bookings further pressured the market, contributing to a modest rise in “Yes” odds as economic fallout loomed.

European airlines extend suspensions of flights to and from Iran

June 15 jumps to 59%8%

Several European carriers announced extensions of suspensions for flights to/from Iran, reflecting the ongoing airspace restrictions and keeping market participants cautious.

Iran says commercial flights will remain suspended pending further notice

May 27 drops to 19%5%

A brief notice that Iran would keep its airspace closed to commercial flights until further notice added to market uncertainty, nudging odds slightly downward as traders awaited more concrete signals.

Iran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions

May 15 jumps to 14%5%

Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.

Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus

May 15 plunges to 4%28%

On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.

UAE and Qatar impose partial airspace restrictions after Iran attack

May 31 drops to 30%14%

Both the UAE and Qatar announced partial airspace restrictions through May 11, extending regional flight disruptions and keeping “Yes” odds elevated.

Iran reopens airspace and resumes commercial flights after temporary closure

May 31 jumps to 33%5%

Following the temporary closure during protests, Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed flights resumed over the country, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure and causing market prices for "Yes" to decline.

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirms reopening of airspace after brief closure

May 18 dips to 12%2%

Following a brief closure of Iranian airspace to most flights amid protests and U.S. tensions, Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed that flights resumed over the country by May 6, 2026. This reopening reduced the likelihood of a major airspace closure in the near term, impacting market prices for May 18 and May 21 outcomes.

Germany cautions airlines to avoid Iranian airspace amid rising tensions

June 15 surges to 58%24%

Germany warned its airlines against entering Iranian airspace, echoing earlier cautions and pushing the market’s “Yes” probability higher as the closure risk widened.

UAE partially closes airspace after Iranian missile attack

May 27 surges to 98%67%

The UAE's GCAA partially closed its airspace until at least 11 May 2026, restricting traffic to narrow approved corridors. This regional closure amplified aviation disruptions and contributed to the market's rising Yes prices.

Iran launches missile and drone attacks on UAE

May 24 surges to 96%70%

Iran launched 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones at the UAE, prompting immediate regional aviation disruptions and the UAE's partial airspace closure. This major escalation directly impacted the market's Yes probability across all outcome dates.

U.S. Embassy in UAE issues security alert after Iran missile attack

June 30 surges to 99%54%

U.S. Embassy security alert on the same day as the missile strike amplified concerns of a possible escalation, prompting a sharp rise in “Yes” odds to a peak of 99% on May 23 as traders priced in a potential full shutdown.

Iran strikes UAE with missiles and drones, triggering partial UAE airspace closure

May 27 plunges to 24%17%

Iran launched missiles and drones at the UAE, prompting the UAE to partially close its own airspace and raising fears of a broader regional airspace shutdown, which pushed “Yes” odds sharply upward on May 4‑5.

Iran launches missile and drone attacks on UAE, prompting regional airspace disruptions

May 31 drops to 20%10%

On May 4, Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones at the UAE, causing injuries and damage. This led to the UAE partially closing its airspace until at least May 11, and airlines suspending or rerouting flights in the region. However, Iran itself did not close its own airspace, which kept the market probability for Iran's airspace closure low.

Iran launches missiles and drones at UAE; UAE partially closes airspace until 11 May

May 24 drops to 17%9%

Iranian missile and drone attacks on the UAE prompted the UAE to partially close its airspace until 11 May 2026, causing widespread flight disruptions and cancellations. This regional escalation contributed to market volatility.

Iran launches missile and drone attacks on UAE, prompting regional airspace restrictions

June 30 plunges to 52%16%

On May 4, 2026, Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones at the UAE, causing injuries and damage. In response, the UAE partially closed its airspace until at least May 11, and Qatar and Oman issued partial airspace restrictions. This heightened regional tensions and disrupted commercial flights, influencing market perceptions of potential Iranian airspace closures.

Iran briefly closes airspace amid protests and unrest

May 31 rises to 40%4%

Iran issued a notice temporarily closing its airspace to most flights except those with prior permission, amid widespread protests and a crackdown. This raised market expectations for a major closure, reflected in a temporary price increase for the "Yes" outcome.

Iran Civil Aviation confirms flights back in operation after brief NOTAM

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization confirmed on May 2 that flights were back in operation over the country, following the initial NOTAM that had been extended through 10:30 p.m. ET. This reopening caused the market price to drop to 0% on May 22.

Commercial flights resume at Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport

May 21 plunges to 4%34%

Commercial flights resumed at Tehran's main airport after a two-month war with the U.S. and Israel, ending the major airspace closure period. This significantly reduced the likelihood of a Yes resolution.

No major airspace closure reported in Iran amid ongoing tensions

May 21 plunges to 2%17%

Despite ongoing regional tensions and previous temporary airspace restrictions in earlier months, no official Iranian aviation authority announcements or credible reports indicated a broad closure of Iranian airspace affecting commercial flights in May 2026. This lack of closure contributed to low market prices for near-term closure outcomes.

Iran issues NOTAM closing airspace to most flights amid protests

Iran issued a notice to pilots banning small private aircraft from flying, with exceptions for oil industry and medical flights, as protests over 2,000+ deaths intensified. This partial closure did not meet the 'major closure' threshold requiring suspension of at least two major airports.

Iran briefly issued NOTAM closing airspace to most flights

May 27 jumps to 46%7%

Iran issued a notice temporarily closing its airspace to all flights except international civil arrivals and departures with prior permission from Iran's aviation authorities. This triggered a small price increase from 39% to 46% on May 14, 2026, before the market settled.