Trump’s recent endorsement has positioned retired Lt. Col. David Flippo as the clear frontrunner in Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District Republican primary, driving trader consensus toward his 73% implied probability. The open seat, created by Rep. Mark Amodei’s retirement, features a crowded field of 13 candidates, but Flippo’s alignment with America First priorities and substantial campaign spending have separated him from rivals. Former state Sen. James Settelmeyer holds endorsements from Gov. Joe Lombardo and Amodei yet trails at 17%, while physician Fred Simon and other entrants remain in single digits. With early voting underway and the June 9 primary just days away, the market reflects the decisive impact of the presidential nod on voter and donor momentum in this safely Republican district.