Traders assign a 98% probability against President Trump renaming the Strait of Hormuz to the "Strait of Trump" by June 30, driven by the complete absence of any official statements, executive orders, or administrative announcements on the matter. No recent diplomatic engagements, legislative proposals, or agency actions indicate plans to alter the international waterway's established name, which would typically require coordination beyond unilateral U.S. authority. The narrow timeline to the deadline leaves insufficient room for preparatory steps such as interagency review or international notification. While a late-breaking executive action remains theoretically possible, historical patterns of geographic naming show no comparable precedents under recent administrations, reinforcing the current market consensus.