Recent tentative agreement between U.S. and Iranian negotiators would extend the existing ceasefire by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease certain sanctions, and launch new talks on Iran’s nuclear program. The framework emerged in late May after months of indirect diplomacy following the April 2026 ceasefire and its subsequent indefinite extension. Final approval remains pending from President Trump and Iranian leadership, with both sides describing terms as largely negotiated but not yet finalized. An announcement could resolve quickly if endorsements materialize, though unresolved issues around enforcement, uranium enrichment limits, and proxy activities could still alter the timeline. Trader sentiment reflects the proximity of a potential deal amid ongoing diplomatic momentum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Iran and U.S. reach MoU for 60-day ceasefire extension, Trump approval still needed
May 30 drops to 18%9%
A memorandum of understanding was confirmed to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, though final approval from President Trump remained outstanding.
U.S. officials confirm tentative ceasefire extension deal but Trump has not signed off
June 30 jumps to 82%5%
On May 29, sources confirmed the tentative 60-day ceasefire extension deal between the U.S. and Iran, but President Trump had not yet officially approved it, maintaining market uncertainty and price volatility.
President Trump to make final determination on Iran ceasefire deal after Situation Room meeting
June 3 surges to 59%16%
President Trump announced he would make a final decision on the potential Iran ceasefire deal after a White House Situation Room meeting, maintaining uncertainty and causing market price volatility.
President Trump to make final determination on Iran ceasefire deal after Situation Room meeting
June 30 drops to 64%5%
President Trump announced he would make a final decision on the potential Iran ceasefire deal after a Situation Room meeting, maintaining market uncertainty and influencing price volatility.
Sources confirm U.S.-Iran 60-day ceasefire extension deal reached, awaiting Trump sign-off
On May 29, sources confirmed that the U.S. and Iran had reached a tentative deal to extend the ceasefire by 60 days to allow formal negotiations, but President Trump had not yet signed off. This maintained market expectations for a 'Yes' resolution on the June 30 outcome.
US military conducts defensive strikes amid ceasefire extension talks
May 30 plunges to 18%24%
The US military conducted defensive strikes against Iranian drones and a ground control station, underscoring ongoing tensions despite ceasefire extension talks, contributing to market volatility.
U.S. and Iran reach 60-day ceasefire extension MOU, Trump approval pending
May 31 plunges to 27%33%
Negotiators finalized a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, but President Trump had not yet approved the agreement.
Reuters reports U.S. and Iran reach agreement to extend ceasefire and lift Strait of Hormuz restrictions
June 30 rises to 78%1%
Reuters reported that the U.S. and Iran reached an agreement to extend the ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, pending approval, marking a significant step toward peace and influencing market prices.
US and Iranian negotiators reach tentative deal to extend ceasefire by 60 days pending Trump approval
June 30 drops to 67%12%
U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and start new nuclear talks, pending final approval from President Trump. This raised market expectations for a near-term announcement but uncertainty remained due to Trump's pending decision.
U.S. and Iran reach 60-day ceasefire extension deal pending Trump approval
May 30 plunges to 6%36%
U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and launch nuclear talks, but the deal required final approval from President Trump.
U.S. and Iran reach memorandum of understanding on 60-day ceasefire extension pending Trump approval
June 30 dips to 74%3%
On May 28, U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached an agreement on a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, but the deal required final approval from President Trump, causing market fluctuations as confirmation was awaited.
US Central Command accuses Iran of egregious ceasefire violation amid talks
June 30 dips to 75%4%
Following missile attacks from Iran on Kuwait and retaliatory US strikes, the US Central Command labeled Iran's actions as a serious ceasefire violation, highlighting the fragile truce and contributing to market uncertainty and price drops.
US and Iran reach tentative 60-day ceasefire extension deal pending Trump approval
June 30 jumps to 79%12%
U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and start nuclear talks, but the deal required President Trump's final approval, causing market volatility and partial price recovery.
No official U.S. announcement on ceasefire extension despite near-final deal reports
May 31 plunges to 16%26%
Despite widespread media reports of a near-final ceasefire extension deal, the U.S. government did not make an official announcement extending the ceasefire, leading to sharp declines in market prices across all resolution dates.
US launches new airstrikes on Iran but maintains ceasefire holds
June 30 drops to 75%5%
Despite new US airstrikes targeting Iranian drones and military sites, officials stated these were defensive actions intended to maintain the ceasefire, reflecting ongoing tensions and fragile peace talks, impacting market confidence.
U.S. and Iran negotiators reach tentative 60-day ceasefire extension deal pending Trump's approval
June 7 jumps to 63%6%
U.S. and Iranian negotiators agreed on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and launch negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, but President Trump had yet to give final approval, maintaining market uncertainty.
No official U.S. announcement on ceasefire extension despite near-final deal reports
May 27 plunges to 0%34%
Despite widespread media reports of a near-final memorandum of understanding extending the ceasefire for 60 days, the U.S. government did not issue an official announcement confirming the extension or a new agreement. Market prices dropped sharply as the likelihood of a timely qualifying announcement diminished.
U.S. and Iran confirm 60-day ceasefire extension framework
May 31 drops to 33%10%
A senior administration official confirmed the U.S. and Iran had developed a framework extending their ceasefire for 60 days, with the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened, solidifying the peace agreement.
No official U.S. announcement of ceasefire extension despite near-deal reports
June 30 drops to 67%12%
Although reports indicated a near-finalized deal, no official U.S. government announcement was made to confirm a new ceasefire extension or successor agreement, leading to a decline in market prices across all resolution dates.
Iran condemns US strikes as 'flagrant violation' of ceasefire amid peace negotiations
May 27 plunges to 11%23%
Iran's foreign ministry denounced US strikes targeting missile launchers and mine-laying boats as a definitive violation of the ceasefire, threatening retaliation. Despite this, peace talks continued, but the strikes introduced uncertainty and downward pressure on market prices for short-term ceasefire extensions.
Reports confirm U.S. and Iran reached agreement on 60-day ceasefire extension
June 30 rises to 81%4%
Multiple credible sources including the Financial Times and Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran had agreed on a 60-day ceasefire extension framework, increasing market confidence in a formal U.S. announcement soon.
U.S. military conducts defensive strikes in southern Iran amid ongoing ceasefire talks
May 31 plunges to 39%21%
Reports emerged of U.S. military operations targeting missile launch sites and boats in the Strait of Hormuz during ongoing ceasefire negotiations, increasing regional tensions and undermining confidence in an imminent ceasefire extension announcement. This contributed to price declines across all resolution dates.
US conducts defensive airstrikes on Iranian missile sites amid ceasefire
June 30 drops to 77%12%
The US launched strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and boats to protect troops, which heightened tensions and underscored the fragility of the ceasefire, contributing to market uncertainty and price declines.
U.S. conducts military strikes on Iranian missile sites amid ongoing ceasefire talks
June 30 rises to 68%1%
On May 25, the U.S. conducted defensive strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and boats in the Strait of Hormuz during ongoing ceasefire conditions and negotiations, increasing regional tensions and causing market uncertainty about the ceasefire extension.
U.S. military conducts strikes in southern Iran amid ongoing ceasefire talks
June 30 drops to 75%5%
Despite ongoing negotiations, the U.S. conducted defensive military strikes targeting missile launch sites and boats in the Strait of Hormuz, increasing regional tensions and contributing to market uncertainty and price declines.
Trump announces 60-day ceasefire extension and Strait of Hormuz reopening
May 25 drops to 1%9%
President Trump confirmed the ceasefire had been extended for another 60 days, with the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened, meeting the market's qualifying criteria for a 'Yes' resolution.
U.S. military conducts strikes against Iran amid ongoing ceasefire deal talks
May 31 plunges to 41%39%
Despite ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire extension, the U.S. military carried out strikes against Iranian targets, introducing uncertainty and causing some market volatility regarding the deal's stability.
President Trump emphasizes deal not fully negotiated despite progress
While optimism grew over the ceasefire extension deal, President Trump emphasized that the deal was not yet fully negotiated, tempering expectations but maintaining market confidence in the ceasefire's continuation through late May.
U.S. and Iran close on 60-day ceasefire extension framework
May 31 plunges to 43%49%
The U.S. and Iran confirmed they had developed a framework extending their ceasefire for 60 days, with the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened, signaling a major breakthrough in peace efforts.
US strikes on Iranian missile sites amid fragile ceasefire talks
June 7 drops to 61%8%
US military strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and boats raised tensions and highlighted the fragility of ceasefire negotiations, causing market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
US Central Command reports 'self-defense' strikes on Iran amid ongoing ceasefire talks
May 31 plunges to 38%22%
The US military conducted strikes on missile sites and boats near the Strait of Hormuz, described as self-defense actions, which Iran condemned as violations of the ceasefire. This raised concerns about the fragility of the ceasefire and caused market prices for near-term extensions to decline.
Iran's supreme leader agrees in principle to give up enriched uranium
May 25 rises to 10%3%
Iran's supreme leader signaled agreement to give up enriched uranium as part of a peace agreement, adding credibility to the negotiations.
US and Iran near deal to extend ceasefire and reopen Strait of Hormuz
June 30 rises to 82%1%
Reports emerged that the US and Iran had developed a framework to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with talks on Iran's nuclear program to follow, increasing market confidence in a ceasefire extension.
U.S. and Iran develop 60-day ceasefire framework to reopen Strait of Hormuz
May 25 plunges to 1%60%
A senior administration official confirmed the U.S. and Iran had developed a memorandum of understanding framework extending the ceasefire 60 days, with the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened, meeting the market's qualifying criteria.
U.S. and Iran develop memorandum of understanding framework for ceasefire extension
June 7 jumps to 75%13%
Senior U.S. officials confirmed that a memorandum of understanding framework had been developed to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, indicating nearing finalization of a peace deal, which supported market prices.
Axios reports proposed US-Iran deal involves 60-day ceasefire extension with Strait of Hormuz reopening
May 24 dips to 70%1%
Axios reported the proposed deal includes a 60-day ceasefire extension with the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened, Iran able to freely sell oil, and nuclear negotiations to follow.
The Week reports U.S.-Iran ceasefire to be extended by 60 days with nuclear talks framework
May 24 dips to 70%1%
The Week reported mediators were close to securing a 60-day ceasefire extension with a framework for broader nuclear negotiations, supporting the qualifying announcement.
Trump says agreement with Iran has 'been largely negotiated' and Strait of Hormuz will be opened
May 24 dips to 70%1%
Trump confirmed the agreement was 'largely negotiated' and the Strait of Hormuz would be opened, providing strong confirmation of the qualifying ceasefire extension.
US and Iran develop 60-day ceasefire extension framework including Strait of Hormuz reopening
June 30 dips to 79%2%
Reports emerged that the US and Iran had developed a memorandum of understanding framework extending the ceasefire by 60 days and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, indicating a near-final deal and raising market confidence in a ceasefire extension.
Axios reports US-Iran deal includes 60-day ceasefire extension and Strait of Hormuz reopening
June 30 dips to 79%2%
Axios reported that the US and Iran were close to signing a deal involving a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened and negotiations on Iran's nuclear program would begin, reinforcing market expectations for a ceasefire extension.
US and Iran finalize memorandum of understanding framework for 60-day ceasefire extension
June 30 dips to 79%2%
A senior US administration official confirmed that the US and Iran had developed a memorandum of understanding framework extending the ceasefire by 60 days, with plans to de-mine and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a near-final agreement and supporting market prices.
U.S. and Iran draft 60‑day cease‑fire extension framework
May 24 plunges to 2%77%
A Washington Post story on May 24 detailed a memorandum of understanding that would extend the cease‑fire 60 days. The report that a concrete framework existed shifted market sentiment, causing the “May 24” outcome price to tumble from 79 % to 2 % Yes as traders realized a qualifying announcement was still pending.
U.S. and Iran near deal: 60-day ceasefire extension with Hormuz reopening
May 24 plunges to 1%43%
Multiple outlets reported the U.S. and Iran were close to signing a memorandum of understanding extending the ceasefire 60 days with the Strait of Hormuz to be demined and reopened, causing prices to peak at 96% on May 24 before falling.
US and Iran near deal to extend ceasefire 60 days with Hormuz reopening
May 24 plunges to 8%36%
A senior US administration official confirmed a memorandum of understanding framework extending the ceasefire 60 days with Hormuz Strait demining and reopening, triggering a significant price drop as the deal was reported not yet finalized.
Trump claims peace deal with Iran 'largely negotiated' with strait of Hormuz to open
May 24 drops to 1%7%
Trump announced on social media that final aspects of a memorandum of understanding were being discussed and that the strait of Hormuz would be opened as part of the deal, maintaining market uncertainty as the deal remained unannounced.
Iran's supreme leader 'in principle' agrees to give up enriched uranium in peace deal
May 24 dips to 0%1%
Iranian sources reported that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 'in principle' agreed to give up enriched uranium as part of a peace agreement, adding complexity to the deal and contributing to market volatility.
Reports detail near-final U.S.-Iran deal for 60-day ceasefire extension and Strait of Hormuz reopening
June 30 jumps to 89%8%
Multiple sources including Axios and Reuters reported that the U.S. and Iran had developed a memorandum of understanding framework extending the ceasefire by 60 days with conditions including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Market prices initially surged on these reports but later declined as no official U.S. announcement was made.
Reports emerge of US-Iran framework for 60-day ceasefire extension and Strait of Hormuz reopening
June 30 rises to 83%2%
Multiple sources reported that the US and Iran had developed a memorandum of understanding framework extending the ceasefire by 60 days and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, boosting market optimism for a formal agreement soon.
Trump says Iran deal reopening Strait of Hormuz 'largely negotiated,' announcement imminent
June 3 jumps to 50%5%
President Trump indicated that a memorandum of understanding with Iran was close to finalization and that the Strait of Hormuz would soon reopen under the ceasefire framework, reinforcing market confidence in a near-term extension announcement.
U.S. and Iran develop 60-day ceasefire extension framework
May 31 jumps to 92%12%
A senior administration official confirmed the U.S. and Iran had developed a memorandum of understanding that extends the ceasefire for 60 days, marking a major step toward final agreement.
U.S. and Iran develop 60-day ceasefire extension framework including Strait of Hormuz reopening
June 30 jumps to 89%9%
Reports confirmed a memorandum of understanding framework extending the ceasefire by 60 days, with plans to de-mine and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, increasing market optimism about a formal ceasefire extension.
Axios reports U.S.-Iran deal near completion with 60-day ceasefire and Strait reopening
June 3 jumps to 50%5%
Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran were close to signing a deal involving a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and resuming oil sales, reinforcing market expectations of a formal U.S. announcement.
Axios reports U.S.-Iran deal includes 60-day ceasefire extension and Strait reopening
June 30 jumps to 89%9%
Axios reported that the proposed deal would extend the ceasefire by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, allow Iran to sell oil freely, and initiate nuclear negotiations, supporting market confidence in the extension.
U.S. and Iran near deal to extend 60-day ceasefire and reopen Strait of Hormuz
Sources reported that the U.S. and Iran had developed a framework to extend their ceasefire for 60 days, with the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened and Iran allowed to sell oil freely, further solidifying market expectations for a ceasefire extension.
Reports indicate U.S. and Iran nearing broader peace agreement including Strait of Hormuz reopening
June 30 plunges to 67%19%
On May 24, reports indicated that the U.S. and Iran were close to a broader peace agreement following months of conflict and stalled negotiations, with President Trump suggesting the Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen under a ceasefire framework, further boosting market optimism.
Reports indicate US and Iran nearing broader peace agreement after stalled negotiations
June 30 plunges to 66%24%
Reports on May 24 indicated that the United States and Iran were nearing a broader peace agreement following months of conflict and stalled negotiations, raising hopes for a ceasefire extension and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Russian envoy praises potential US-Iran ceasefire extension
June 7 surges to 92%23%
Russian special presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev praised the potential 60-day ceasefire extension as a chance to avoid escalation, supporting the credibility of the extension agreement and positively influencing market sentiment.
President Trump announces US nearing deal to extend Iran ceasefire and reopen Strait of Hormuz
June 7 surges to 84%15%
President Trump stated that the United States was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling imminent progress on a peace framework. This announcement increased market confidence in a ceasefire extension, raising prices for later resolution dates.
Trump says U.S.-Iran peace deal 'largely negotiated' with Strait of Hormuz reopening
President Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding for a peace deal with Iran was largely negotiated, including provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling imminent agreement and causing a sharp price drop across all outcomes.
President Trump announces peace deal with Iran largely negotiated, including Strait of Hormuz reopening
On May 23, 2026, President Trump stated that a peace deal with Iran was largely negotiated, signaling potential imminent agreement and boosting market optimism for a ceasefire extension or new agreement. This statement raised prices across all resolution dates as traders anticipated an official announcement.
Trump claims peace deal with Iran 'largely negotiated' for 60-day ceasefire
May 25 plunges to 1%52%
President Trump announced the U.S. and Iran were in the final stages of negotiations to extend a ceasefire by 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, meeting the market's qualifying criteria.
Trump announces Iran peace deal 'largely negotiated' including Strait of Hormuz reopening
President Trump stated that a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz was largely negotiated and would be announced soon, boosting market optimism about a ceasefire extension.
President Trump announces ceasefire deal with Iran largely negotiated
June 30 surges to 85%16%
President Trump stated that a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal with Iran was largely negotiated, including provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling imminent agreement and boosting market optimism for a ceasefire extension or new agreement.
Trump says US in final stages of Iran ceasefire extension negotiations
May 24 plunges to 44%16%
President Trump announced the US was in final stages of negotiating a ceasefire extension and Hormuz Strait reopening, boosting early market optimism for a deal announcement.
President Trump announces U.S. in final stages of Iran ceasefire extension talks
June 7 surges to 86%17%
President Trump stated that the U.S. was close to finalizing a deal to extend the ceasefire with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling progress in negotiations and temporarily boosting market optimism.
Reports emerge of U.S.-Iran agreement on 60-day ceasefire extension
June 30 jumps to 89%8%
Multiple sources, including the Financial Times and Axios, reported that the U.S. and Iran had reached a framework agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and allow Iran to sell oil freely, raising market expectations.
President Trump announces peace deal with Iran largely negotiated, including Strait of Hormuz reopening
June 30 surges to 90%21%
President Trump stated that a peace deal with Iran was largely negotiated, signaling potential imminent agreement and boosting market optimism for a ceasefire extension or new agreement. This caused initial price increases in longer-dated resolution options.
Trump announces U.S. in final stages of Iran ceasefire extension negotiations
June 7 surges to 96%27%
President Trump stated that the U.S. was close to finalizing a ceasefire extension deal with Iran and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, raising market expectations for a near-term announcement. This caused initial price increases in longer-dated resolution options.
President Trump announces Iran peace deal 'largely negotiated' amid ongoing talks
On May 23, 2026, President Trump stated that a peace deal with Iran was largely negotiated, signaling potential imminent agreement and boosting market optimism for a ceasefire extension or new agreement. This announcement raised expectations for a formal announcement soon, impacting market prices positively.
Financial Times reports U.S. and Iran have agreed on 60-day ceasefire extension
The Financial Times cited sources confirming that the U.S. and Iran had reached an agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, reinforcing market expectations of a formal announcement soon.
Trump announces U.S. in final stages of ceasefire negotiations with Iran
May 31 surges to 80%20%
President Trump stated the U.S. was in the final stages of negotiating a ceasefire extension with Iran and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, signaling imminent agreement.
Trump announces 'largely negotiated' peace deal framework with Iran including Strait of Hormuz reopening
June 30 jumps to 81%12%
On May 23, President Trump stated that a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal with Iran was largely negotiated, including provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement raised market optimism about a ceasefire extension and broader peace agreement.
President Trump announces final stages of ceasefire extension negotiations with Iran
June 30 surges to 96%27%
President Trump stated that the U.S. was in the final stages of negotiating a ceasefire extension with Iran and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, signaling progress but without an official extension announcement. This initially supported market optimism for a near-term extension announcement.
US and Iran near agreement to extend ceasefire for 60 days
May 31 surges to 80%20%
The Financial Times reported that the US and Iran had reached an agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, citing sources familiar with the negotiations. This news increased market confidence in the ceasefire's continuation and raised prices for the May 31 and June 7 outcomes.
President Trump says Iran peace deal 'largely negotiated' and Strait of Hormuz will reopen
June 7 jumps to 83%14%
President Trump announced that a peace deal with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling progress toward ending the war. This statement boosted market optimism and prices for the ceasefire extension.
US President Trump announces final stages of ceasefire extension negotiations
May 26 jumps to 70%9%
President Trump stated that the United States was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing market expectations of an imminent announcement.
Iranian officials confirm progress on ceasefire extension framework
May 25 jumps to 63%10%
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei confirmed that Tehran was in the final stages of drafting a framework agreement aimed at ending the conflict with the United States, supporting reports of a ceasefire extension.
Pakistani mediation advances US-Iran ceasefire talks
May 24 dips to 43%1%
Pakistan's Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir held talks with Iranian leadership, resulting in encouraging progress toward a final understanding on extending the ceasefire, which bolstered market confidence.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio signals progress in Iran ceasefire talks
May 26 jumps to 70%9%
Marco Rubio indicated some progress in negotiations with Iran and left open the possibility of news on the ceasefire extension, contributing to market optimism.
Reports suggest US-Iran peace deal announcement imminent
May 25 jumps to 63%10%
Multiple news outlets reported that the US and Iran were expected to announce a draft peace deal within 24 hours, raising market expectations for a ceasefire extension announcement.
Iranian Parliament Speaker warns US against restarting war
May 24 dips to 43%1%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that Iran's armed forces had rebuilt during the ceasefire and warned of a crushing response if the US resumed war, highlighting tensions despite ceasefire talks.
U.S. and Iran reach 60-day ceasefire extension agreement
May 23 plunges to 4%44%
The Financial Times reported that the U.S. and Iran had reached an agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, with the announcement expected within 24 hours. This major diplomatic breakthrough caused a sharp price drop for the May 23 outcome from 48% to 4% and significant price movements across other outcomes.
Trump says U.S. and Iran close to peace deal with Hormuz reopening
May 24 plunges to 44%16%
President Trump announced the U.S. and Iran were 'largely negotiating' a deal that would include opening the Strait of Hormuz, triggering initial market optimism and a price spike to 91% on May 23.
U.S. and Iran reach 60-day ceasefire agreement, Strait of Hormuz to be reopened
May 24 surges to 71%27%
The Financial Times reported that the U.S. and Iran had reached an agreement extending the ceasefire for 60 days with the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened, confirming a qualifying announcement.
Trump announces Iran peace deal 'largely negotiated' with Strait of Hormuz to be opened
May 24 surges to 71%27%
Trump stated the deal was 'largely negotiated' and the Strait of Hormuz would be opened, reinforcing market expectations of a qualifying ceasefire extension announcement.
Trump says ceasefire extension negotiations in final stages
President Trump announced the U.S. was nearing final negotiations to extend the ceasefire, signaling momentum toward a potential agreement.
President Trump announces U.S. close to finalizing Iran ceasefire extension and peace deal
June 30 surges to 86%17%
President Trump stated that the United States was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling imminent official confirmation and boosting market confidence in a ceasefire extension.
President Trump announces near-finalized peace deal with Iran
President Trump stated that a peace deal with Iran was largely negotiated, signaling potential imminent agreement and boosting market optimism for a ceasefire extension or new agreement, which increased prices for later resolution dates.
US and Iran near agreement on 60-day ceasefire extension
June 7 surges to 92%23%
Multiple credible sources including The Financial Times and regional officials reported that the US and Iran were close to agreeing on a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, signaling a significant diplomatic breakthrough and raising market confidence in a formal announcement.
President Trump states US in final stages of ceasefire extension talks
May 31 surges to 91%31%
President Trump publicly stated that the US was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran, reinforcing market expectations of an imminent official announcement.
Financial Times reports US-Iran agreement on 60-day ceasefire extension
May 26 surges to 90%29%
The Financial Times reported that the US and Iran had reached an agreement on extending the ceasefire for 60 days, providing strong market confirmation of a qualifying announcement.
US and Iran close to memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire
May 25 surges to 89%36%
Reports indicated that the US and Iran were closing in on a deal to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and establish a framework for further discussions, increasing market confidence in a formal extension announcement.
Trump to announce Iran peace deal framework shortly
May 24 surges to 79%35%
President Trump announced that a framework for a peace deal with Iran, including opening the Strait of Hormuz, would be announced shortly, signaling a qualifying announcement and boosting market prices.
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