The absence of any official statements, parliamentary resolutions, or public signals from KRG leaders favoring a unilateral independence declaration by year-end underpins the 91.5% trader consensus on No. Instead, officials have prioritized coordination with Baghdad on oil exports, revenue sharing, and federal budget matters following the 2025 multilateral deal that routes Kurdish crude through the State Organization for Marketing of Oil. This approach reflects the post-2017 pattern, where the failed referendum triggered territorial losses, economic sanctions from neighbors, and a Supreme Court ruling against secession. Internal divisions between the KDP and PUK, recent federal moves to centralize customs and financial controls, and consistent opposition from Iran and Turkey further reduce incentives for any near-term break, with no scheduled events or verified developments indicating a shift before December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$52,821 交易量
$52,821 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$52,821 交易量
$52,821 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The absence of any official statements, parliamentary resolutions, or public signals from KRG leaders favoring a unilateral independence declaration by year-end underpins the 91.5% trader consensus on No. Instead, officials have prioritized coordination with Baghdad on oil exports, revenue sharing, and federal budget matters following the 2025 multilateral deal that routes Kurdish crude through the State Organization for Marketing of Oil. This approach reflects the post-2017 pattern, where the failed referendum triggered territorial losses, economic sanctions from neighbors, and a Supreme Court ruling against secession. Internal divisions between the KDP and PUK, recent federal moves to centralize customs and financial controls, and consistent opposition from Iran and Turkey further reduce incentives for any near-term break, with no scheduled events or verified developments indicating a shift before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$52,821结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The absence of any official statements, parliamentary resolutions, or public signals from KRG leaders favoring a unilateral independence declaration by year-end underpins the 91.5% trader consensus on No. Instead, officials have prioritized coordination with Baghdad on oil exports, revenue sharing, and federal budget matters following the 2025 multilateral deal that routes Kurdish crude through the State Organization for Marketing of Oil. This approach reflects the post-2017 pattern, where the failed referendum triggered territorial losses, economic sanctions from neighbors, and a Supreme Court ruling against secession. Internal divisions between the KDP and PUK, recent federal moves to centralize customs and financial controls, and consistent opposition from Iran and Turkey further reduce incentives for any near-term break, with no scheduled events or verified developments indicating a shift before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$52,821结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The absence of any official statements, parliamentary resolutions, or public signals from KRG leaders favoring a unilateral independence declaration by year-end underpins the 91.5% trader consensus on No. Instead, officials have prioritized coordination with Baghdad on oil exports, revenue sharing, and federal budget matters following the 2025 multilateral deal that routes Kurdish crude through the State Organization for Marketing of Oil. This approach reflects the post-2017 pattern, where the failed referendum triggered territorial losses, economic sanctions from neighbors, and a Supreme Court ruling against secession. Internal divisions between the KDP and PUK, recent federal moves to centralize customs and financial controls, and consistent opposition from Iran and Turkey further reduce incentives for any near-term break, with no scheduled events or verified developments indicating a shift before December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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