NOAA’s below-normal outlook for the 2026 Atlantic season, forecasting just 1–3 major hurricanes, underpins the 89.5% market-implied probability that no Category 5 storm will reach the U.S. coastline before 2027. On the Saffir-Simpson scale, Category 5 systems require sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, an intensity achieved by only four U.S. landfalls since 1851, with none recorded since Hurricane Michael in 2018. The current El Niño–Southern Oscillation phase and associated steering patterns further reduce the odds of rapid intensification near land. With the season’s peak months still ahead, any shift in official National Hurricane Center model consensus or an unexpected late-season surge could alter sentiment, though historical frequency and early-season guidance currently favor the “No” outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$135,888 交易量
$135,888 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$135,888 交易量
$135,888 交易量
2026-12-31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s below-normal outlook for the 2026 Atlantic season, forecasting just 1–3 major hurricanes, underpins the 89.5% market-implied probability that no Category 5 storm will reach the U.S. coastline before 2027. On the Saffir-Simpson scale, Category 5 systems require sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, an intensity achieved by only four U.S. landfalls since 1851, with none recorded since Hurricane Michael in 2018. The current El Niño–Southern Oscillation phase and associated steering patterns further reduce the odds of rapid intensification near land. With the season’s peak months still ahead, any shift in official National Hurricane Center model consensus or an unexpected late-season surge could alter sentiment, though historical frequency and early-season guidance currently favor the “No” outcome.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
交易量
$135,888结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s below-normal outlook for the 2026 Atlantic season, forecasting just 1–3 major hurricanes, underpins the 89.5% market-implied probability that no Category 5 storm will reach the U.S. coastline before 2027. On the Saffir-Simpson scale, Category 5 systems require sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, an intensity achieved by only four U.S. landfalls since 1851, with none recorded since Hurricane Michael in 2018. The current El Niño–Southern Oscillation phase and associated steering patterns further reduce the odds of rapid intensification near land. With the season’s peak months still ahead, any shift in official National Hurricane Center model consensus or an unexpected late-season surge could alter sentiment, though historical frequency and early-season guidance currently favor the “No” outcome.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
交易量
$135,888结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s below-normal outlook for the 2026 Atlantic season, forecasting just 1–3 major hurricanes, underpins the 89.5% market-implied probability that no Category 5 storm will reach the U.S. coastline before 2027. On the Saffir-Simpson scale, Category 5 systems require sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, an intensity achieved by only four U.S. landfalls since 1851, with none recorded since Hurricane Michael in 2018. The current El Niño–Southern Oscillation phase and associated steering patterns further reduce the odds of rapid intensification near land. With the season’s peak months still ahead, any shift in official National Hurricane Center model consensus or an unexpected late-season surge could alter sentiment, though historical frequency and early-season guidance currently favor the “No” outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题