Recent U.S. tornado activity aligns with long-term NOAA and Storm Prediction Center averages of roughly 1,200–1,300 confirmed reports annually, positioning the 1,250+ outcome as the market favorite. Early 2026 data show an active spring with hundreds of confirmed touchdowns through April, consistent with front-loaded patterns seen in recent years, though long-range forecasts from multiple sources project a full-year total between 1,050 and 1,250. Key variables include ongoing May–June peak-season conditions, potential La Niña influences on atmospheric instability, and model consensus on convective available potential energy and wind shear. New preliminary counts from the SPC in coming weeks could shift implied probabilities if activity exceeds or falls short of climatological norms.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于1250+ 53%
<950 26.2%
1200–1249 11.3%
1150–1199 6.8%
$72,800 交易量
$72,800 交易量
2027-01-10
<950
26%
950–999
2%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
2%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
7%
1200–1249
11%
1250+
60%
1250+ 53%
<950 26.2%
1200–1249 11.3%
1150–1199 6.8%
$72,800 交易量
$72,800 交易量
2027-01-10
<950
$22,440 交易量
26%
950–999
$3,008 交易量
2%
1000–1049
$2,664 交易量
1%
1050–1099
$7,867 交易量
2%
1100–1149
$2,104 交易量
3%
1150–1199
$2,693 交易量
7%
1200–1249
$15,199 交易量
11%
1250+
$16,825 交易量
60%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent U.S. tornado activity aligns with long-term NOAA and Storm Prediction Center averages of roughly 1,200–1,300 confirmed reports annually, positioning the 1,250+ outcome as the market favorite. Early 2026 data show an active spring with hundreds of confirmed touchdowns through April, consistent with front-loaded patterns seen in recent years, though long-range forecasts from multiple sources project a full-year total between 1,050 and 1,250. Key variables include ongoing May–June peak-season conditions, potential La Niña influences on atmospheric instability, and model consensus on convective available potential energy and wind shear. New preliminary counts from the SPC in coming weeks could shift implied probabilities if activity exceeds or falls short of climatological norms.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市场开放时间： Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
交易量
$72,800结束日期
2027-01-10市场开放时间
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent U.S. tornado activity aligns with long-term NOAA and Storm Prediction Center averages of roughly 1,200–1,300 confirmed reports annually, positioning the 1,250+ outcome as the market favorite. Early 2026 data show an active spring with hundreds of confirmed touchdowns through April, consistent with front-loaded patterns seen in recent years, though long-range forecasts from multiple sources project a full-year total between 1,050 and 1,250. Key variables include ongoing May–June peak-season conditions, potential La Niña influences on atmospheric instability, and model consensus on convective available potential energy and wind shear. New preliminary counts from the SPC in coming weeks could shift implied probabilities if activity exceeds or falls short of climatological norms.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$72,800结束日期
2027-01-10市场开放时间
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. tornado activity aligns with long-term NOAA and Storm Prediction Center averages of roughly 1,200–1,300 confirmed reports annually, positioning the 1,250+ outcome as the market favorite. Early 2026 data show an active spring with hundreds of confirmed touchdowns through April, consistent with front-loaded patterns seen in recent years, though long-range forecasts from multiple sources project a full-year total between 1,050 and 1,250. Key variables include ongoing May–June peak-season conditions, potential La Niña influences on atmospheric instability, and model consensus on convective available potential energy and wind shear. New preliminary counts from the SPC in coming weeks could shift implied probabilities if activity exceeds or falls short of climatological norms.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题