Gustavo Petro faces the strongest near-term exit risk among the listed leaders because Colombia’s constitution bars him from a second term, with the May 2026 presidential election and subsequent transition locking in his departure before 2027 regardless of recent approval gains near 50 percent. Keir Starmer’s 25.5 percent share reflects sustained internal Labour pressure after heavy May 2026 local-election losses, open calls from dozens of MPs for a leadership change, and persistently low personal favorability that has kept removal scenarios in play ahead of the 2029 general election. Miguel Díaz-Canel’s 15.3 percent pricing stems from external diplomatic pressure on Cuba’s leadership amid ongoing U.S. talks, offset by the absence of domestic mechanisms or scheduled votes that could force his exit before his term ends in 2028. Lower-odds figures such as Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, and others register minimal implied probabilities because their positions rest on firmer institutional controls, longer constitutional terms, or fewer recent domestic catalysts capable of accelerating removal. Trader positioning therefore centers on fixed electoral calendars and acute party fractures as the dominant short-horizon drivers.