The tightening Seoul mayoral contest between Democratic Party nominee Chong Won-o and incumbent People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon has emerged as the primary driver of trader expectations for 55-60% turnout. Recent polling shows the once double-digit lead narrowing to within the margin of error, heightening perceptions of competitiveness and prompting greater mobilization efforts by both campaigns ahead of the June 3 vote. Elevated national attention following the post-impeachment political realignment has further supported participation above the 53.2% level recorded in Seoul during the 2022 local elections. Traders view the combination of a closer race and sustained public engagement as the most probable path to the leading outcome band, while lower probabilities for sub-50% or 65%+ turnout reflect limited evidence of either widespread disengagement or exceptional surge conditions in final pre-election indicators.