No at 70% reflects the absence of any cataloged near-Earth objects or orbital models projecting an atmospheric bolide with 5 kilotons or greater TNT-equivalent energy through the end of 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS surveillance. Early-2026 saw elevated fireball detections, including a 250-ton event over Ohio, yet all remained well below the 5kt threshold and consistent with normal sporadic meteoroid flux rather than a clustered hazard. Historical impact rates for objects in the several-meter size range capable of reaching this energy remain low, with continuous sky surveys reducing uncertainty for known bodies while leaving room for undiscovered small impactors. No new high-risk detections or revised forecasts have shifted the consensus in recent weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$305,695 交易量
$305,695 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$305,695 交易量
$305,695 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 70% reflects the absence of any cataloged near-Earth objects or orbital models projecting an atmospheric bolide with 5 kilotons or greater TNT-equivalent energy through the end of 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS surveillance. Early-2026 saw elevated fireball detections, including a 250-ton event over Ohio, yet all remained well below the 5kt threshold and consistent with normal sporadic meteoroid flux rather than a clustered hazard. Historical impact rates for objects in the several-meter size range capable of reaching this energy remain low, with continuous sky surveys reducing uncertainty for known bodies while leaving room for undiscovered small impactors. No new high-risk detections or revised forecasts have shifted the consensus in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
交易量
$305,695结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 70% reflects the absence of any cataloged near-Earth objects or orbital models projecting an atmospheric bolide with 5 kilotons or greater TNT-equivalent energy through the end of 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS surveillance. Early-2026 saw elevated fireball detections, including a 250-ton event over Ohio, yet all remained well below the 5kt threshold and consistent with normal sporadic meteoroid flux rather than a clustered hazard. Historical impact rates for objects in the several-meter size range capable of reaching this energy remain low, with continuous sky surveys reducing uncertainty for known bodies while leaving room for undiscovered small impactors. No new high-risk detections or revised forecasts have shifted the consensus in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$305,695结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No at 70% reflects the absence of any cataloged near-Earth objects or orbital models projecting an atmospheric bolide with 5 kilotons or greater TNT-equivalent energy through the end of 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS surveillance. Early-2026 saw elevated fireball detections, including a 250-ton event over Ohio, yet all remained well below the 5kt threshold and consistent with normal sporadic meteoroid flux rather than a clustered hazard. Historical impact rates for objects in the several-meter size range capable of reaching this energy remain low, with continuous sky surveys reducing uncertainty for known bodies while leaving room for undiscovered small impactors. No new high-risk detections or revised forecasts have shifted the consensus in recent weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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