Jerry Carl leads trader consensus in the Alabama 1st Congressional District Republican primary at 64.5 percent, reflecting his 40.3 percent finish ahead of state Representative Rhett Marques at 31.1 percent in the May 19 primary under prior district lines. A federal court ruling reinstating a June 16 runoff has reinforced Carl's position through established support in Mobile County and his prior House service from 2021 to 2025. Marques trails at 10 percent amid redistricting litigation and shifting campaign focus. The remaining candidates, including Austin Sidwell, Joshua McKee, James Dees, James Richardson, and John Mills, hold single-digit shares consistent with limited name recognition and fundraising. The August 11 special primary outcome depends on turnout patterns and any final map adjustments.