The Arkansas 3rd congressional district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+13 partisan voter index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters such as Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Steve Womack advanced unopposed through the March 2026 primary, while the Democratic nominee faces limited visibility in a district that delivered Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles. With the general election still five months away on November 3, 2026, the market’s 91.5% Republican probability aligns with historical base rates for similarly rated seats. Late developments such as a national partisan shift, candidate withdrawal, or major scandal could narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have emerged.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
92%
民主党
9%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$7,024 交易量
92%
民主党
$767 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Arkansas 3rd congressional district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+13 partisan voter index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters such as Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Steve Womack advanced unopposed through the March 2026 primary, while the Democratic nominee faces limited visibility in a district that delivered Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles. With the general election still five months away on November 3, 2026, the market’s 91.5% Republican probability aligns with historical base rates for similarly rated seats. Late developments such as a national partisan shift, candidate withdrawal, or major scandal could narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$7,790结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Arkansas 3rd congressional district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+13 partisan voter index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters such as Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Steve Womack advanced unopposed through the March 2026 primary, while the Democratic nominee faces limited visibility in a district that delivered Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles. With the general election still five months away on November 3, 2026, the market’s 91.5% Republican probability aligns with historical base rates for similarly rated seats. Late developments such as a national partisan shift, candidate withdrawal, or major scandal could narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$7,790结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Arkansas 3rd congressional district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+13 partisan voter index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters such as Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Steve Womack advanced unopposed through the March 2026 primary, while the Democratic nominee faces limited visibility in a district that delivered Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles. With the general election still five months away on November 3, 2026, the market’s 91.5% Republican probability aligns with historical base rates for similarly rated seats. Late developments such as a national partisan shift, candidate withdrawal, or major scandal could narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have emerged.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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