Ongoing military escalation between the United States, Israel, and Iran since late February 2026 has severely restricted commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint. Shipping data through early May shows daily passages often limited to single digits or near zero, down from typical pre-conflict levels exceeding 60 vessels per day, driven by vessel seizures, mine-laying concerns, suspended insurance coverage, and carrier rerouting decisions. This sustained reduction underpins the market's strong consensus around minimal average traffic at month-end. Potential shifts could arise from verified ceasefire agreements, mine clearance operations, or diplomatic arrangements restoring safe navigation, though such developments remain uncertain amid continued regional tensions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0-10 97.5%
10-20 1.8%
20-40 <1%
40-60 <1%
$758,465 交易量
$758,465 交易量
2026-05-31
0-10
98%
10-20
2%
20-40
<1%
40-60
<1%
60+
<1%
0-10 97.5%
10-20 1.8%
20-40 <1%
40-60 <1%
$758,465 交易量
$758,465 交易量
2026-05-31
0-10
$323,157 交易量
98%
10-20
$114,402 交易量
2%
20-40
$101,102 交易量
<1%
40-60
$88,236 交易量
<1%
60+
$131,568 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing military escalation between the United States, Israel, and Iran since late February 2026 has severely restricted commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint. Shipping data through early May shows daily passages often limited to single digits or near zero, down from typical pre-conflict levels exceeding 60 vessels per day, driven by vessel seizures, mine-laying concerns, suspended insurance coverage, and carrier rerouting decisions. This sustained reduction underpins the market's strong consensus around minimal average traffic at month-end. Potential shifts could arise from verified ceasefire agreements, mine clearance operations, or diplomatic arrangements restoring safe navigation, though such developments remain uncertain amid continued regional tensions.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
交易量
$758,465结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing military escalation between the United States, Israel, and Iran since late February 2026 has severely restricted commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint. Shipping data through early May shows daily passages often limited to single digits or near zero, down from typical pre-conflict levels exceeding 60 vessels per day, driven by vessel seizures, mine-laying concerns, suspended insurance coverage, and carrier rerouting decisions. This sustained reduction underpins the market's strong consensus around minimal average traffic at month-end. Potential shifts could arise from verified ceasefire agreements, mine clearance operations, or diplomatic arrangements restoring safe navigation, though such developments remain uncertain amid continued regional tensions.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$758,465结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing military escalation between the United States, Israel, and Iran since late February 2026 has severely restricted commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint. Shipping data through early May shows daily passages often limited to single digits or near zero, down from typical pre-conflict levels exceeding 60 vessels per day, driven by vessel seizures, mine-laying concerns, suspended insurance coverage, and carrier rerouting decisions. This sustained reduction underpins the market's strong consensus around minimal average traffic at month-end. Potential shifts could arise from verified ceasefire agreements, mine clearance operations, or diplomatic arrangements restoring safe navigation, though such developments remain uncertain amid continued regional tensions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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