Incumbent Democrat Raul Ruiz holds a commanding position in California's 25th congressional district for the 2026 House race, reflected in the market's 90.5 percent implied probability of a Democratic win. The district's consistent Democratic voter registration edge and Ruiz's 56 percent re-election margin in 2024 underpin trader consensus, further supported by California's Proposition 50 redistricting that strengthened Democratic-leaning seats ahead of the November general election. With the June 2 primary underway and multiple Republican challengers filed, no recent polling shifts or candidate developments have altered the established partisan baseline. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong Republican performance in the general or unexpected turnout dynamics, though historical patterns in the district limit the likelihood of an upset.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
91%
共和党
9%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$2,671 交易量
91%
共和党
$615 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Raul Ruiz holds a commanding position in California's 25th congressional district for the 2026 House race, reflected in the market's 90.5 percent implied probability of a Democratic win. The district's consistent Democratic voter registration edge and Ruiz's 56 percent re-election margin in 2024 underpin trader consensus, further supported by California's Proposition 50 redistricting that strengthened Democratic-leaning seats ahead of the November general election. With the June 2 primary underway and multiple Republican challengers filed, no recent polling shifts or candidate developments have altered the established partisan baseline. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong Republican performance in the general or unexpected turnout dynamics, though historical patterns in the district limit the likelihood of an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$3,287结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Raul Ruiz holds a commanding position in California's 25th congressional district for the 2026 House race, reflected in the market's 90.5 percent implied probability of a Democratic win. The district's consistent Democratic voter registration edge and Ruiz's 56 percent re-election margin in 2024 underpin trader consensus, further supported by California's Proposition 50 redistricting that strengthened Democratic-leaning seats ahead of the November general election. With the June 2 primary underway and multiple Republican challengers filed, no recent polling shifts or candidate developments have altered the established partisan baseline. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong Republican performance in the general or unexpected turnout dynamics, though historical patterns in the district limit the likelihood of an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$3,287结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Raul Ruiz holds a commanding position in California's 25th congressional district for the 2026 House race, reflected in the market's 90.5 percent implied probability of a Democratic win. The district's consistent Democratic voter registration edge and Ruiz's 56 percent re-election margin in 2024 underpin trader consensus, further supported by California's Proposition 50 redistricting that strengthened Democratic-leaning seats ahead of the November general election. With the June 2 primary underway and multiple Republican challengers filed, no recent polling shifts or candidate developments have altered the established partisan baseline. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong Republican performance in the general or unexpected turnout dynamics, though historical patterns in the district limit the likelihood of an upset.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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