Redistricting through California’s Proposition 50 shifted the San Diego-area district leftward, creating a seat that would have backed Kamala Harris by a narrow margin in 2024 and earning lean-Democratic ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa retired in March 2026 and endorsed San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who carries Trump support but faces a structurally unfavorable map with a modest Democratic registration edge. A crowded Democratic primary field on June 2, featuring candidates including Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar, is expected to produce a top-two matchup against Desmond in November, where the district’s partisan composition and historical patterns in comparable open seats underpin trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$11,560 交易量
$11,560 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
87%
共和党
13%
$11,560 交易量
$11,560 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$6,098 交易量
87%
共和党
$5,462 交易量
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting through California’s Proposition 50 shifted the San Diego-area district leftward, creating a seat that would have backed Kamala Harris by a narrow margin in 2024 and earning lean-Democratic ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa retired in March 2026 and endorsed San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who carries Trump support but faces a structurally unfavorable map with a modest Democratic registration edge. A crowded Democratic primary field on June 2, featuring candidates including Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar, is expected to produce a top-two matchup against Desmond in November, where the district’s partisan composition and historical patterns in comparable open seats underpin trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$11,560结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting through California’s Proposition 50 shifted the San Diego-area district leftward, creating a seat that would have backed Kamala Harris by a narrow margin in 2024 and earning lean-Democratic ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa retired in March 2026 and endorsed San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who carries Trump support but faces a structurally unfavorable map with a modest Democratic registration edge. A crowded Democratic primary field on June 2, featuring candidates including Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar, is expected to produce a top-two matchup against Desmond in November, where the district’s partisan composition and historical patterns in comparable open seats underpin trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,560结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting through California’s Proposition 50 shifted the San Diego-area district leftward, creating a seat that would have backed Kamala Harris by a narrow margin in 2024 and earning lean-Democratic ratings from forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa retired in March 2026 and endorsed San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who carries Trump support but faces a structurally unfavorable map with a modest Democratic registration edge. A crowded Democratic primary field on June 2, featuring candidates including Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar, is expected to produce a top-two matchup against Desmond in November, where the district’s partisan composition and historical patterns in comparable open seats underpin trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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