Texas's 31st congressional district carries an R+11 partisan voter index and holds safe Republican ratings from major forecasters, reflecting consistent GOP advantages in presidential voting patterns and electoral math that favor the incumbent party nominee. Longtime Republican Representative John Carter secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with a decisive margin, while Democrat Justin Early advanced as the opposing nominee. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, and no major shifts in polling trends or campaign developments reported in recent weeks, trader consensus assigns the Republican outcome an 84.5% implied probability based on the district's structural Republican tilt and historical re-election rates for incumbents in comparable seats.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$14,121 交易量
$14,121 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
85%
民主党
16%
$14,121 交易量
$14,121 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$8,895 交易量
85%
民主党
$5,226 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 31st congressional district carries an R+11 partisan voter index and holds safe Republican ratings from major forecasters, reflecting consistent GOP advantages in presidential voting patterns and electoral math that favor the incumbent party nominee. Longtime Republican Representative John Carter secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with a decisive margin, while Democrat Justin Early advanced as the opposing nominee. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, and no major shifts in polling trends or campaign developments reported in recent weeks, trader consensus assigns the Republican outcome an 84.5% implied probability based on the district's structural Republican tilt and historical re-election rates for incumbents in comparable seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$14,121结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 31st congressional district carries an R+11 partisan voter index and holds safe Republican ratings from major forecasters, reflecting consistent GOP advantages in presidential voting patterns and electoral math that favor the incumbent party nominee. Longtime Republican Representative John Carter secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with a decisive margin, while Democrat Justin Early advanced as the opposing nominee. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, and no major shifts in polling trends or campaign developments reported in recent weeks, trader consensus assigns the Republican outcome an 84.5% implied probability based on the district's structural Republican tilt and historical re-election rates for incumbents in comparable seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$14,121结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 31st congressional district carries an R+11 partisan voter index and holds safe Republican ratings from major forecasters, reflecting consistent GOP advantages in presidential voting patterns and electoral math that favor the incumbent party nominee. Longtime Republican Representative John Carter secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with a decisive margin, while Democrat Justin Early advanced as the opposing nominee. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, and no major shifts in polling trends or campaign developments reported in recent weeks, trader consensus assigns the Republican outcome an 84.5% implied probability based on the district's structural Republican tilt and historical re-election rates for incumbents in comparable seats.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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