Recent economic data showing sticky inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target alongside resilient labor market conditions have anchored trader consensus on limited further easing through 2026, positioning the 3.75% federal funds rate as the leading market-implied outcome at 35.9% probability. The 4.0% level follows at 21.4%, reflecting expectations that the FOMC will hold or modestly adjust policy from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range amid reaccelerating growth forecasts. The March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections reinforced this path with a median outlook for one cut this year, while futures markets price year-end levels near 3.7%. Key near-term catalysts include the June 17 FOMC decision and upcoming inflation releases that could shift probabilities if disinflation stalls.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于3.75% 35.9%
4.0% 21.4%
3.5% 8.6%
4.25% 6.9%
$6,558,924 交易量
$6,558,924 交易量
2026-12-09
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
<1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
4%
3.25%
6%
3.5%
9%
3.75%
36%
4.0%
21%
4.25%
7%
大于等于4.5%
4%
3.75% 35.9%
4.0% 21.4%
3.5% 8.6%
4.25% 6.9%
$6,558,924 交易量
$6,558,924 交易量
2026-12-09
≤1.0%
$217,336 交易量
<1%
1.25
$135,270 交易量
1%
1.5%
$138,872 交易量
<1%
1.75%
$136,323 交易量
<1%
2.0%
$251,721 交易量
<1%
2.25%
$73,473 交易量
<1%
2.5%
$161,600 交易量
<1%
2.75%
$46,779 交易量
1%
3.0%
$456,172 交易量
4%
3.25%
$52,847 交易量
6%
3.5%
$194,156 交易量
9%
3.75%
$520,268 交易量
36%
4.0%
$1,360,110 交易量
21%
4.25%
$415,639 交易量
7%
大于等于4.5%
$2,398,355 交易量
4%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent economic data showing sticky inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target alongside resilient labor market conditions have anchored trader consensus on limited further easing through 2026, positioning the 3.75% federal funds rate as the leading market-implied outcome at 35.9% probability. The 4.0% level follows at 21.4%, reflecting expectations that the FOMC will hold or modestly adjust policy from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range amid reaccelerating growth forecasts. The March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections reinforced this path with a median outlook for one cut this year, while futures markets price year-end levels near 3.7%. Key near-term catalysts include the June 17 FOMC decision and upcoming inflation releases that could shift probabilities if disinflation stalls.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
市场开放时间： Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
交易量
$6,558,924结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent economic data showing sticky inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target alongside resilient labor market conditions have anchored trader consensus on limited further easing through 2026, positioning the 3.75% federal funds rate as the leading market-implied outcome at 35.9% probability. The 4.0% level follows at 21.4%, reflecting expectations that the FOMC will hold or modestly adjust policy from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range amid reaccelerating growth forecasts. The March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections reinforced this path with a median outlook for one cut this year, while futures markets price year-end levels near 3.7%. Key near-term catalysts include the June 17 FOMC decision and upcoming inflation releases that could shift probabilities if disinflation stalls.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
交易量
$6,558,924结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent economic data showing sticky inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target alongside resilient labor market conditions have anchored trader consensus on limited further easing through 2026, positioning the 3.75% federal funds rate as the leading market-implied outcome at 35.9% probability. The 4.0% level follows at 21.4%, reflecting expectations that the FOMC will hold or modestly adjust policy from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range amid reaccelerating growth forecasts. The March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections reinforced this path with a median outlook for one cut this year, while futures markets price year-end levels near 3.7%. Key near-term catalysts include the June 17 FOMC decision and upcoming inflation releases that could shift probabilities if disinflation stalls.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题