Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces negligible risk of incarceration before 2027, as reflected in the market-implied 98.7% probability for “No.” The Department of Justice opened a narrow criminal inquiry in late 2025 over Powell’s congressional testimony on the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation but closed the probe without charges in April 2026, transferring any remaining review to the agency’s inspector general. Federal courts previously quashed related subpoenas, citing a lack of evidence beyond policy disagreements. Powell’s term as Chair concludes in May 2026, after which he is expected to remain a governor on the Board, further insulating him from personal legal exposure. While extreme hypotheticals such as unprecedented political interference could theoretically arise, institutional checks, judicial precedent, and the absence of substantiated wrongdoing underpin the overwhelming trader consensus.