**Trader consensus heavily favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, with the 64.5% implied probability on zero reflecting the low historical frequency of such events.** VEI ≥4 eruptions, defined by at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and substantial plume heights on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, occur globally only a handful of times per decade on average. As of early June 2026, Smithsonian/USGS monitoring reports ongoing activity at dozens of volcanoes, including Kīlauea and several Indonesian systems, but none have escalated to confirmed VEI 4+ thresholds in the year to date. Model runs and alert levels show typical background unrest without the rapid intensification or seismic swarms that precede major explosive phases. This positions a single event as plausible if conditions align at a high-risk volcano, while two or more remain unlikely absent unusual clustering.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0 65%
1 32%
2 4.2%
3 <1%
$1,139,023 交易量
$1,139,023 交易量
2026-12-31
0
65%
1
32%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
<1%
0 65%
1 32%
2 4.2%
3 <1%
$1,139,023 交易量
$1,139,023 交易量
2026-12-31
0
$498,053 交易量
65%
1
$270,356 交易量
32%
2
$38,215 交易量
4%
3
$30,563 交易量
1%
4
$32,205 交易量
1%
5+
$269,631 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, with the 64.5% implied probability on zero reflecting the low historical frequency of such events.** VEI ≥4 eruptions, defined by at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and substantial plume heights on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, occur globally only a handful of times per decade on average. As of early June 2026, Smithsonian/USGS monitoring reports ongoing activity at dozens of volcanoes, including Kīlauea and several Indonesian systems, but none have escalated to confirmed VEI 4+ thresholds in the year to date. Model runs and alert levels show typical background unrest without the rapid intensification or seismic swarms that precede major explosive phases. This positions a single event as plausible if conditions align at a high-risk volcano, while two or more remain unlikely absent unusual clustering.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
交易量
$1,139,023结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, with the 64.5% implied probability on zero reflecting the low historical frequency of such events.** VEI ≥4 eruptions, defined by at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and substantial plume heights on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, occur globally only a handful of times per decade on average. As of early June 2026, Smithsonian/USGS monitoring reports ongoing activity at dozens of volcanoes, including Kīlauea and several Indonesian systems, but none have escalated to confirmed VEI 4+ thresholds in the year to date. Model runs and alert levels show typical background unrest without the rapid intensification or seismic swarms that precede major explosive phases. This positions a single event as plausible if conditions align at a high-risk volcano, while two or more remain unlikely absent unusual clustering.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
交易量
$1,139,023结束日期
2027-03-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus heavily favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, with the 64.5% implied probability on zero reflecting the low historical frequency of such events.** VEI ≥4 eruptions, defined by at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and substantial plume heights on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, occur globally only a handful of times per decade on average. As of early June 2026, Smithsonian/USGS monitoring reports ongoing activity at dozens of volcanoes, including Kīlauea and several Indonesian systems, but none have escalated to confirmed VEI 4+ thresholds in the year to date. Model runs and alert levels show typical background unrest without the rapid intensification or seismic swarms that precede major explosive phases. This positions a single event as plausible if conditions align at a high-risk volcano, while two or more remain unlikely absent unusual clustering.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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