Israel's 25th Knesset advanced a coalition-backed dissolution bill through its preliminary reading on May 20 with a 110-0 vote, driven by fractures between Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud and ultra-Orthodox partners over stalled legislation exempting Haredi yeshiva students from military conscription. The bill, which does not fix an election date, moves to committee review and additional readings, potentially triggering polls within 90 days of final passage and shifting the scheduled October 27 vote earlier. Traders track coalition negotiations, procedural timelines, and any shifts in Haredi leverage or Likud control as key variables that could accelerate or stall full dissolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Analysts project September election after dissolution vote
June 30 surges to 51%35%
Following the May 20 vote, the market shifted sharply toward a June‑30 election date as analysts assessed that the 90‑day period after dissolution made a late‑September/early‑October election more likely, raising the June‑30 odds to 51 %.
Ultra-Orthodox leaders reject Netanyahu's attempt to delay Knesset dissolution
July 31 jumps to 81%11%
Despite Prime Minister Netanyahu's efforts to preserve the coalition by resuming discussion of the ultra-Orthodox military conscription bill, ultra-Orthodox leaders remained firm in their decision to dissolve the Knesset, increasing the likelihood of early elections in September or October.
UN Chief Condemns New Israeli Annexation Measures in West Bank
June 15 plunges to 26%24%
UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned Israel's land acquisition measures, warning they are eroding the viability of a two-state solution and violating international law.
Knesset passes preliminary reading of dissolution bill
The Knesset passed a preliminary reading of a dissolution bill by a 110-0 vote, with Netanyahu absent, marking a decisive moment in the coalition's collapse and triggering rapid market price movement.
Knesset sets June 1 for first reading of dissolution bill
July 31 surges to 87%16%
Coalition whip Ofir Katz announced the first reading of the dissolution bill would take place on 1 June, moving the legislative timetable forward and triggering a further price increase for the July‑31 outcome.
Israeli parliament dissolution market surges to 87% on imminent Knesset vote
July 31 surges to 87%17%
Market prices for dissolution by July 31 surged to 87% as the Knesset prepared for a decisive vote on the dissolution bill, reflecting near certainty of early elections before the October deadline.
Knesset advances bill to dissolve itself after Netanyahu's military exemption failure
May 31 plunges to 1%23%
Following Netanyahu's inability to pass a military exemption bill for Haredi yeshiva students, the Knesset moved to dissolve itself, with opposition parties also submitting dissolution bills to capitalize on the political crisis.
Knesset House Committee to discuss dissolution bill and set election date
Following the preliminary vote to dissolve the Knesset, the Knesset House Committee scheduled discussions to set the election date, which must be at least three months after the bill's final approval. This procedural step is crucial for finalizing the timing of the snap election, expected in September or October 2026.
Dissolution bill sent to Knesset House Committee for election‑date debate
July 31 jumps to 84%14%
The dissolution bill was referred to the Knesset House Committee for debate on the election date. Media reported the committee might set a September date, briefly pushing the “July 31” price to its on‑day high of 84 %.
Market reacts to ongoing legislative process for Knesset dissolution
July 31 jumps to 82%10%
Following the initial vote, the bill moved through parliamentary committees and readings amid political jockeying, causing volatility in market prices for the July 31 election date as the timing of elections remained uncertain.
Netanyahu and ultra-Orthodox factions jostle over election timing amid dissolution process
July 31 dips to 66%4%
Political insiders reported ongoing power struggles between Netanyahu and ultra-Orthodox coalition partners over legislation and election timing, with ultra-Orthodox favoring early September elections. This uncertainty caused market volatility in dissolution date probabilities.
Netanyahu coalition files bill to dissolve Knesset amid draft crisis
July 31 surges to 70%21%
Netanyahu’s coalition submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to control the timing of early elections amid ultra-Orthodox anger over military draft exemptions. This move caused a sharp rise in market prices for dissolution by July 31, reflecting increased certainty of early elections.
Knesset House Committee advances dissolution bill unanimously
The Knesset House Committee voted 8-0 to advance the dissolution bill to the plenum for its first reading, signaling continued progress toward early elections. This procedural step reinforced market expectations of Knesset dissolution by June 30.
Market uncertainty grows as election date remains unset after dissolution bill advances
July 31 drops to 41%8%
By late May 2026, despite the bill's advancement, the exact election date remained undecided, causing market volatility and price declines for July 31 and June 15 dissolution options. Political maneuvering and negotiations continued, affecting market confidence in the timing of dissolution.
Knesset dissolution stalls as ultra-Orthodox parties yield to Netanyahu
July 31 jumps to 84%14%
Despite the preliminary vote to dissolve the Knesset, no committee discussion was scheduled to advance the legislation, increasing the likelihood that elections would be held on the original October 27 date, with ultra-Orthodox parties inclined to accept Netanyahu's timeline.
Ultra-Orthodox parties back down on Knesset dissolution push
Sources in Haredi parties told Haaretz that the move to dissolve the Knesset is unlikely, indicating the ultra-Orthodox parties had yielded to Netanyahu's pressure to avoid a political showdown.
Haredi factions back Knesset dissolution after Netanyahu fails to pass conscription law
Sources indicate that despite initial pressure, Haredi parties ultimately backed the dissolution of the Knesset, with Netanyahu's coalition having submitted its own bill to control the process.
Knesset dissolution stalls as ultra-Orthodox parties yield to Netanyahu on election timing
May 31 plunges to 2%22%
Despite a preliminary vote to dissolve the Knesset, no committee discussion was scheduled to advance the bill, with ultra-Orthodox parties inclined to accept Netanyahu's preferred October election date, causing a sharp drop in May 31 dissolution probability.
Knesset dissolution bill moves to committee to set election date
June 30 surges to 56%44%
Following the unanimous vote, the bill moved to committee where the election date would be set, increasing market confidence in dissolution by June 30 and reducing likelihood of May 31 dissolution.
Knesset dissolution bill passes preliminary reading 110-0
The Knesset passed a preliminary reading of a dissolution bill by a 110-0 vote, with Netanyahu absent, marking a decisive moment in the coalition's collapse and triggering rapid market price movement.
Preliminary Knesset vote passes to dissolve parliament, setting stage for early elections
July 31 surges to 69%20%
The Knesset passed a preliminary vote to dissolve itself with overwhelming support, driven by ultra-Orthodox parties' loss of trust in Netanyahu over military exemption legislation, significantly increasing market prices for July 31 dissolution.
Speculation on election dates narrows to September 1 or October 27
June 30 surges to 38%23%
Following the dissolution vote, political discussions focused on possible election dates, with September 1 and October 27 emerging as the most realistic options, influencing market expectations for the timing of elections.
Opposition submits dissolution bill to counter Netanyahu's move
Opposition leader Benny Gantz and MK Pnina Tamano-Shata introduced a dissolution bill to challenge Netanyahu's attempt to control the dissolution process and timing of elections.
Knesset votes 110-0 to advance coalition dissolution bill
June 30 rises to 14%2%
The coalition's bill passed its preliminary reading with overwhelming support, beginning the process of moving elections forward from October 27 to September or mid-October. This major political development significantly impacted market pricing.
Knesset votes to dissolve parliament in preliminary reading
May 31 plunges to 1%23%
Lawmakers voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of a government-backed bill to dissolve the Knesset, marking a decisive step toward early elections amid coalition tensions over military conscription exemptions.
Opposition MKs submit dissolution bills amid coalition collapse
July 31 surges to 69%20%
Opposition parties submitted their own bills to dissolve the Knesset, capitalizing on the ultra-Orthodox parties' push for dissolution and the coalition's lack of majority, intensifying pressure on the government.
Israeli Knesset advances dissolution bill, setting early elections in motion
July 31 rises to 73%3%
Following the unanimous preliminary vote, the Knesset moved the dissolution bill to committee stages, confirming the path toward early elections likely before October 27. This legislative progress further increased market confidence in dissolution by July 31.
Knesset votes overwhelmingly to dissolve parliament, advancing early elections
July 31 surges to 69%20%
The Knesset voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of a government-backed bill to dissolve itself, moving the country toward early elections before the scheduled October 27 date, though the exact election date remained to be set by committee.
Knesset approves dissolution bill in preliminary reading, 110‑0
July 31 surges to 70%21%
The Knesset held the preliminary reading on the dissolution bill and approved it 110‑0. The unanimous vote confirmed that the 25th Knesset would be dissolved, causing a sharp rise in the market’s “July 31” price (up to ~70 %) as the probability of an early election before the October 27 deadline climbed sharply.
Israeli Knesset passes preliminary vote to dissolve itself, setting stage for early elections
July 31 surges to 66%17%
On May 20, 2026, the Knesset passed a preliminary vote to dissolve itself with overwhelming support, advancing the dissolution bill and moving toward elections likely in September 2026, amid ongoing ultra-Orthodox draft disputes.
Knesset passes preliminary vote to dissolve itself, setting stage for early elections
July 31 rises to 51%2%
The Knesset passed a preliminary vote to dissolve itself with overwhelming support, advancing the dissolution bill and making early elections likely in September or October 2026. This event caused a notable market reaction, especially for later dissolution dates.
Israeli lawmakers advance bill to dissolve parliament amid coalition tensions
July 31 surges to 72%21%
The bill to dissolve the Knesset advanced despite internal coalition conflicts, particularly over ultra-Orthodox draft exemption legislation. The advancement reinforced expectations of early elections and influenced market prices.
Opposition and coalition lawmakers submit multiple bills to dissolve Knesset
On May 20, 2026, multiple bills to dissolve the Knesset were submitted by both opposition and coalition members, reflecting broad political consensus on early elections. This legislative activity contributed to market movements favoring dissolution around late June.
Knesset unanimously advances dissolution bill
July 31 surges to 87%43%
The Knesset voted 110‑0 in a preliminary reading to advance the dissolution bill, confirming that parliament would be dissolved and elections would be held no later than October 27. The unanimous vote drove the July‑31 odds sharply higher.
Coalition submits dissolution bill to control election timing
The coalition submitted its own dissolution legislation to control the election process and prevent the opposition from dictating timing, a classic Netanyahu political maneuver.
Knesset votes to dissolve itself amid coalition crisis
The Knesset advanced a bill to dissolve itself in May 2026, opening the possibility of snap elections months before the scheduled October 2026 vote.
Knesset advances preliminary dissolution bill with unanimous support
May 31 plunges to 2%22%
Lawmakers voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of a government-backed bill to dissolve the Knesset, potentially triggering early elections if ultimately passed into law.
Knesset dissolution bill passes preliminary reading with overwhelming support
July 31 surges to 76%27%
The coalition's bill to dissolve the Knesset passed its preliminary reading with 110 votes in favor and none against, marking a critical step toward early elections and reflecting the political crisis over the Haredi draft bill.
Israeli MPs vote to dissolve Knesset amid coalition fractures
July 31 surges to 76%27%
The unanimous vote to dissolve the Knesset was driven by coalition fractures over the ultra-Orthodox military exemption bill, paving the way for potential early elections and causing market prices for later dissolution dates to rise sharply.
Israeli Knesset votes to advance bill to dissolve parliament
July 31 surges to 70%21%
The Knesset voted to advance the dissolution bill, moving it closer to final approval and triggering the process for early elections likely in September. This vote caused a significant market price increase for later dissolution dates, reflecting heightened probability of early elections.
Opposition MKs submit separate dissolution bill amid political deadlock
Opposition lawmakers, including Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, submitted their own bill to dissolve parliament, signaling broad political consensus on early elections and increasing pressure on the government. This reinforced market expectations for dissolution and elections in the near term.
Opposition and coalition lawmakers submit multiple bills to dissolve Knesset
July 31 surges to 76%27%
Following the UTJ announcement, multiple opposition MKs submitted bills to dissolve parliament, but the coalition-backed bill gained unanimous support, indicating a coordinated move to control election timing and affecting market expectations for early dissolution.
Knesset votes unanimously to dissolve parliament, advancing early elections
July 31 surges to 76%27%
The Knesset voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of a government-backed bill to dissolve parliament, triggered by disputes over ultra-Orthodox military exemptions, significantly boosting market prices for July 31 and June 30 dissolution dates.
Knesset votes overwhelmingly to dissolve parliament in preliminary reading
June 30 surges to 53%36%
On May 20, 2026, the Knesset voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of the bill to dissolve parliament, marking a critical step toward early elections. This unanimous vote significantly increased market confidence that the Knesset would dissolve before the scheduled election date.
Knesset advances bill to dissolve itself with unanimous preliminary support
May 31 drops to 2%11%
Lawmakers voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of a government-backed dissolution bill, potentially triggering snap elections if ultimately passed into law, marking a decisive step toward early elections.
Israeli Knesset votes to dissolve itself, advancing early election process
July 31 surges to 69%20%
The Knesset passed a preliminary vote to dissolve itself with overwhelming support, initiating the formal process for early elections likely to be held in September or October 2026. This vote reflected the collapse of Netanyahu's coalition due to the ultra-Orthodox draft dispute and increased market confidence in dissolution.
Knesset dissolution bill sent to committee to set election date
May 31 plunges to 4%20%
With the bill now in committee, the market uncertainty about timing decreased. The May 31 price dropped to 4% as the market priced in a likely early election outcome.
Knesset votes 110-0 in favor of preliminary dissolution bill
June 30 drops to 57%10%
Lawmakers voted overwhelmingly in a preliminary reading to move the dissolution legislation forward, with the bill now heading to committee where an election date would be agreed upon.
Knesset dissolution bill moves to committee to set election date
June 30 surges to 56%36%
Following the unanimous vote to advance the dissolution bill, it moved to the Knesset committee to agree on an election date, with the final approval pending. This procedural step was crucial in formalizing the path to early elections, influencing market prices upward.
Israeli lawmakers advance bill to dissolve parliament amid political crisis
June 30 surges to 56%36%
Amid coalition instability and Netanyahu's legal challenges, Israeli lawmakers advanced a bill to dissolve parliament, moving the country closer to snap elections. The bill's advancement reflected broad political consensus on ending the current Knesset term early.
Netanyahu-Trump meeting on Iran talks and Gaza ceasefire
June 30 jumps to 55%14%
Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran negotiations and Gaza ceasefire progress, reinforcing diplomatic coordination and possibly stabilizing political conditions, which corresponded with a rise in market confidence for the June 30 outcome.
Knesset passes preliminary vote 110-0 to dissolve itself, moving closer to early elections
July 31 jumps to 57%8%
The Knesset approved a bill in a preliminary reading to dissolve itself with unanimous support from 110 lawmakers, marking a critical step toward early elections. The bill must still pass through committee and three readings before becoming law, with the election date to be set by the Knesset House Committee no earlier than 90 days after final passage.
Knesset votes to dissolve itself in preliminary reading of dissolution bill
May 31 plunges to 2%22%
Lawmakers voted overwhelmingly 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of a government-backed bill to dissolve the Knesset, potentially triggering early elections if ultimately passed into law.
Unanimous Knesset vote seals early‑election path
May 31 drops to 4%8%
The overwhelming 110‑0 vote on May 20 confirmed the dissolution path, driving the May‑31 “Yes” price down from 12 % on May 14 to 4 % by the end of the window as the market priced in an early September‑October election.
Israeli Knesset votes overwhelmingly to dissolve itself, advancing snap election process
July 31 surges to 77%28%
On May 20, 2026, the Knesset voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of the bill to dissolve parliament, moving closer to early elections. The vote was driven by ultra-Orthodox parties frustrated over failure to pass military exemption laws and marked a critical step toward elections likely in September or October.
Ultra-Orthodox factions push to dissolve Knesset amid coalition crisis
June 30 surges to 55%35%
The ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party announced its intention to dissolve the Knesset due to the coalition's failure to pass legislation exempting their community from mandatory military service. This move increased the likelihood of early elections and contributed to the dissolution bill's advancement.
Coalition's bill to dissolve Knesset passes preliminary reading amid crisis over haredi draft bill
July 31 surges to 77%28%
The coalition's bill to dissolve the Knesset passed its preliminary reading with a large majority of 110 lawmakers in favor and none against, amid a crisis in Netanyahu’s coalition with ultra-Orthodox parties over the controversial draft exemption bill. This marked the formal start of the process to move the election date forward from October 27.
Israeli MPs vote unanimously to dissolve Knesset, paving way for potential early elections
July 31 surges to 77%28%
Israeli MPs voted unanimously to dissolve the Knesset, opening the path to potential early elections amid fractures in the governing coalition. The trigger was a dispute over legislation to exempt ultra-Orthodox men from mandatory military service, a central coalition demand. The election timing remains uncertain but is expected before the October 27 deadline.
Knesset votes unanimously to advance dissolution bill
The Knesset held a preliminary reading on the dissolution bill, voting 110‑0 in favour. The unanimous vote confirmed that the parliament would move toward dissolution, causing the June‑30 “Yes” price to stay high (~59 %) and the May‑31 “Yes” price to fall to around 4 %.
Knesset votes unanimously in preliminary reading to dissolve itself
The Israeli Knesset approved a bill in a preliminary reading to dissolve itself with 110 votes in favor and none against, marking a critical step toward early elections. The bill now proceeds to committee and further readings before final dissolution and election date setting.
Ultra-Orthodox parties push for early elections amid coalition collapse
Ultra-Orthodox factions, key coalition partners, declared loss of trust in Netanyahu and supported the dissolution bill, accelerating the collapse of the governing coalition and increasing the likelihood of early elections before the original October date.
Israeli parliament votes to dissolve itself, paving way for early elections
July 31 surges to 69%20%
The Knesset voted to dissolve itself, officially starting the process for early elections likely to be held in September, earlier than the October 27 deadline. This event caused a sharp increase in market prices for the July 31 election date.
Knesset dissolution bill advances amid coalition tensions over draft legislation
June 30 rises to 54%1%
The dissolution bill passed a preliminary vote on May 20, 2026, amid political struggles between Netanyahu and ultra-Orthodox coalition partners over military draft exemptions. The bill's advancement signaled a narrowing window for elections, impacting market prices for June and July election dates.
Israeli parliament votes overwhelmingly to dissolve itself, advancing early election plans
July 31 surges to 65%16%
The Knesset voted almost unanimously to advance a bill to dissolve parliament, moving Israel closer to snap elections likely in September. The bill now proceeds to committee and further readings before final approval, with political commentators expecting elections in early September or late October.
Israeli parliament votes to dissolve itself, advancing early elections
The Knesset approved a bill to dissolve itself with a large majority, initiating the process for early elections likely to be held in September or October 2026. The vote reflected the collapse of Netanyahu's coalition amid ultra-Orthodox parties withdrawing support over military conscription disputes.
Knesset votes overwhelmingly to advance dissolution bill
June 30 jumps to 58%8%
Lawmakers voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of a government-backed bill to dissolve the Knesset, potentially triggering early elections if ultimately passed into law.
Coalition's bill to dissolve Knesset passes preliminary reading amid haredi draft bill crisis
The coalition's bill to dissolve the Knesset passed its preliminary reading with overwhelming support, starting the process to move the election date forward from October 27. The ultra-Orthodox parties' opposition to the draft bill was a key factor in the dissolution.
Coalition whip Ofir Katz addresses Knesset ahead of dissolution vote
July 31 rises to 51%2%
Coalition whip Ofir Katz spoke in the Knesset supporting the dissolution bill, emphasizing the government's control over the election timing and the addition of soldiers to the IDF. This reinforced market confidence in the dissolution process progressing.
Explosion in Gaza wounds Israeli soldier, accusations of cease‑fire breach
June 30 surges to 57%16%
The incident revived concerns over cease‑fire stability, shifting sentiment toward the earlier May 31 deadline and causing a sharp price drop for the June 30 outcome.
Knesset session focused on symbolic speeches, no legislation debate
June 30 rises to 55%2%
With no legislation available for debate, lawmakers focused on symbolic speeches marking Jerusalem Day, Ethiopian Jewish immigration, and National Students Day, indicating the dissolution process was taking precedence.
Israeli opposition calls for Knesset dissolution and early elections
Opposition parties jointly called on Knesset members to support a bill to dissolve the parliament and hold early elections, criticizing the dysfunctional government and urging a swift electoral process. This increased pressure on the coalition amid ongoing political instability.
Netanyahu says he prefers October 27 election date
July 31 drops to 70%14%
Netanyahu publicly stated he preferred the original October 27 election date, counter‑balancing the push for a September vote and contributing to the slight dip in the “July 31” price that afternoon.
Israeli opposition calls for Knesset dissolution and early elections
Opposition parties publicly urged Knesset members to support a bill dissolving the parliament, emphasizing the dysfunction of the current Knesset and pushing for elections as soon as possible. This increased pressure on the coalition and contributed to the momentum toward dissolution.
Israeli President delays decision on Netanyahu's request to halt corruption trial
June 30 rises to 49%3%
President Isaac Herzog delayed a decision on Netanyahu's request to halt his corruption trial, a setback for Netanyahu amid political uncertainty. This likely influenced market expectations about political stability and parliamentary dissolution timing.
Ultra-Orthodox conscription dispute pushes Israeli government to brink
The ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism pulled support from Netanyahu's coalition unless a draft exemption bill was passed, intensifying the political crisis and pushing the government towards collapse and early elections.
Ultra-Orthodox parties push for Knesset dissolution amid military draft dispute
The ultra-Orthodox parties, key coalition members, announced their intention to dissolve the Knesset due to failure to pass legislation exempting their constituents from military service. This escalated the political crisis and pressured the government towards early elections.
UNRWA demolition controversy sparks protests in Jerusalem
Renewed protests over UNRWA site demolitions revived political tension, causing a modest pullback in price.
Israeli cabinet debates settlement expansion amid political pressure
May 31 drops to 4%9%
Intensified settlement policy debates signaled internal governmental strain, prompting traders to pull back from the May‑31 scenario as the likelihood of an early dissolution appeared reduced.
Israeli cabinet delays Rafah opening amid security concerns
May 31 plunges to 13%18%
A sudden reversal on the Rafah timetable revived fears of political deadlock, sharply lowering the May‑31 probability.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage in Gaza, advancing ceasefire phase
June 30 jumps to 46%6%
Israel recovered the remains of the last hostage in Gaza, removing a major obstacle to the next phase of the ceasefire. This development likely reduced immediate political pressure, affecting market views on parliamentary dissolution timing.
Over 80 Countries Condemn Israeli West Bank Measures
June 30 plunges to 16%24%
A broad international coalition condemned Israel's West Bank policies, further isolating Israel diplomatically and increasing political instability.
Rafah crossing reopens for limited Palestinian travel between Gaza and Egypt
June 30 surges to 34%16%
The reopening of the Rafah border crossing marked a significant step in the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, improving humanitarian conditions and political prospects.
Netanyahu coalition fast-tracks laws amid looming Knesset dissolution
June 30 jumps to 48%10%
Netanyahu's coalition accelerated controversial legislation as the dissolution of the Knesset became imminent, reflecting attempts to control the political agenda before early elections. Market prices for dissolution by June 30 rose significantly, indicating increased likelihood of early elections.
Ultra-Orthodox parties break with Netanyahu over draft exemptions
June 30 surges to 57%37%
United Torah Judaism and Degel HaTorah factions withdrew support from Netanyahu over the stalled conscription exemption law, signaling a major coalition crisis and paving the way for dissolution votes.
Trump urges rapid move to second cease‑fire phase with Netanyahu
June 30 drops to 44%14%
President Trump’s public push for a quick transition to the second phase revived optimism for a June 30 dissolution, briefly lifting the price before a rapid decline later that day.
UN peacekeepers report surge in Israeli‑Lebanon incidents
May 31 drops to 13%10%
A report of increased Israeli attacks near UNIFIL positions heightened regional security concerns, causing a rapid drop in confidence for the May‑31 outcome as attention shifted to external conflicts.
UTJ push for dissolution drags down May‑31 election odds
May 31 plunges to 4%27%
Following UTJ’s May 12 announcement, the market’s May‑31 “Yes” price, which had spiked to 31 % on May 13, collapsed to single‑digit levels as traders reassessed the likelihood of an early election in September‑October rather than at the end of October.
Coalition submits bill to dissolve Knesset after Haredi pressure
May 31 plunges to 1%23%
Netanyahu's coalition submitted a dissolution bill after facing pressure from the ultra-Orthodox faction traditionally close to him, who accused him of failing to deliver on a promise to pass military exemption legislation.
Israel's ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections
The ruling coalition in Israel proposed a bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to trigger early elections before the scheduled October 27 deadline. This move was driven by ultra-Orthodox parties' dissatisfaction with Netanyahu's failure to pass a military conscription exemption law, increasing the likelihood of elections in September.
Israel's ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections
The ruling coalition, led by Netanyahu's Likud party, submitted a proposal to dissolve the Knesset amid coalition instability caused by ultra-Orthodox parties' anger over military draft legislation. This move was seen as an attempt by Netanyahu to control the election timetable, with the dissolution bill expected to be voted on May 20.
Netanyahu coalition submits Knesset dissolution bill
June 30 surges to 57%37%
Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition filed a bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to control the timing of elections amid coalition fractures and ultra-Orthodox pressure over conscription exemptions.
Netanyahu's ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections
May 31 plunges to 0%24%
On May 13, 2026, Netanyahu's coalition officially proposed a bill to dissolve the 25th Knesset and set early elections, aiming to control the election timing amid coalition fractures and ultra-Orthodox dissent.
Israeli ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections
The ruling coalition in Israel proposed a bill to dissolve the Knesset, signaling the start of preparations for early elections ahead of the October 27 deadline. This proposal increased market speculation about a September election date.
Netanyahu’s coalition files early‑dissolution bill
July 31 surges to 87%43%
Netanyahu’s ruling coalition submitted its own bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to control the election timetable and pre‑empt opposition‑driven dissolution attempts. The proposal intensified market expectations of a September election.
Shas chairman demands Knesset dissolution after coalition fails on military exemption
Shas chairman Aryeh Deri announced the coalition failed to deliver the basic military exemption law, stating the party has no choice but to dissolve the Knesset and hold new elections immediately.
Israel returns 15 Palestinian bodies to Gaza in final exchange
The reciprocal exchange was seen as a diplomatic success, further lowering the perceived risk of political upheaval and pushing the price higher.
Israeli lawmakers advance Knesset dissolution bill with unanimous preliminary vote
July 31 surges to 70%21%
The Knesset passed a preliminary reading of a bill to dissolve parliament by a 110-0 vote, signaling near-consensus on early elections. This legislative progress increased market confidence in dissolution by July 31, as the bill set the stage for elections before the original October deadline.
Netanyahu's ruling coalition submits bill to dissolve Knesset amid coalition crisis
The ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, submitted a bill to dissolve the 25th Knesset following mounting tensions over military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox students. This move was seen as an attempt to control the election timetable and preempt opposition efforts to dissolve parliament.
Limited travel through Rafah crossing resumes amid ceasefire talks
The partial reopening of the Rafah crossing was interpreted as progress in the ceasefire’s second phase, reducing urgency for a political reset and causing the market’s May‑31 probability to fall while the June‑30 outlook rose sharply.
Ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections
The Israeli ruling coalition formally proposed a bill to dissolve parliament, with a vote expected on May 20. This legislative move signaled a clear path toward early elections, increasing market confidence in dissolution occurring before the October deadline.
Israel returns remains of last Israeli hostage from Gaza
May 31 plunges to 8%23%
The recovery of Ran Gvili’s remains removed a key political hurdle, leading traders to favor a May‑31 dissolution as the government could now focus on internal politics rather than cease‑fire negotiations.
Coalition submits own Knesset dissolution bill to control election process
In a bid to control the process, the coalition submitted its own dissolution bill to the Knesset, aiming to prevent the opposition from dictating election timing.
Coalition files bill to dissolve Knesset without setting election date
The coalition submitted its own bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to control the dissolution process and election timing, though no election date was specified, fueling speculation about election timing.
Coalition files bill to dissolve Knesset without setting election date
The coalition submitted its own dissolution legislation to control the election process, indicating a coordinated political maneuver to manage timing amid ongoing coalition instability.
Netanyahu’s coalition submits bill to dissolve the Knesset
Netanyahu’s coalition filed a dissolution bill in the Knesset, marking the first formal step toward early elections. The move signaled that the parliament could be dissolved before October 27, pushing the market’s “July 31” option higher as investors priced in a September‑early election scenario.
Sharp rise in market confidence after Netanyahu announces timeline for Rafah opening
May 31 jumps to 31%7%
A clear timetable for reopening Rafah reduced uncertainty about the cease‑fire’s future, causing a sudden surge in the May‑31 probability before it quickly fell as doubts resurfaced.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
June 30 surges to 39%22%
Netanyahu approved a major natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional economic position. This political and economic development may have influenced market expectations about the stability and timing of parliamentary dissolution.
Netanyahu's ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections
The ruling coalition submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to trigger early elections and control the election date, amid mounting tensions with ultra-Orthodox parties over military draft exemptions. This move set the stage for a parliamentary vote and increased market expectations for dissolution.
Coalition submits Knesset dissolution bill to control election process
May 31 plunges to 6%18%
Netanyahu's coalition introduced its own dissolution legislation to influence timing and avoid opposition dictating the process, a classic political maneuver. This move likely caused the May 31 price to drop from 24% to 6% as early election probability increased.
Coalition submits bill to dissolve Knesset amid political crisis
June 30 surges to 42%25%
The governing coalition submitted its own bill to dissolve the Knesset to control the election timing, signaling a move toward early elections and causing a sharp increase in market prices for the June 30 and July 31 options.
Netanyahu's ruling coalition submits bill to dissolve Knesset for early elections
The ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu submitted a bill to dissolve the 25th Knesset, aiming to control the election timetable amid a coalition crisis over ultra-Orthodox military conscription exemptions. This move set the stage for early elections potentially before the scheduled October 27 date.
Coalition submits bill to dissolve Knesset to control election process
In a bid to control the dissolution process and prevent the opposition from dictating election timing, the coalition submitted its own bill to dissolve the Knesset, potentially triggering early elections.
Israel's ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections
June 30 surges to 55%35%
The ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset amid mounting pressure from ultra-Orthodox parties over military service exemption legislation. This move initiated the formal process toward early elections, signaling political instability and a potential snap election before the scheduled October 27 deadline.
Netanyahu’s coalition files its own Knesset‑dissolution bill
June 30 jumps to 59%13%
The governing coalition formally submitted its own dissolution bill to the Knesset, the first such proposal from the government itself. Traders interpreted this as a decisive step toward an early snap election, pushing the June‑30 “Yes” probability up and the May‑31 “Yes” probability sharply down.
Israeli ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections
The ruling coalition in Israel proposed a bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to bring forward elections originally scheduled for October 27, 2026. This proposal initiated market speculation about an earlier election date, influencing price movements for June and July outcomes.
Coalition submits own bill to dissolve Knesset to control election timing
June 30 jumps to 65%8%
Netanyahu's coalition submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset aiming to control the election timing and prevent opposition from dictating the process. This strategic move increased market confidence in early elections but left the exact date uncertain.
Israel approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
May 31 surges to 52%28%
The landmark economic deal was seen as a sign of stabilising regional relations, briefly lifting market confidence for a later dissolution date, but the effect was short‑lived.
Ultra-Orthodox party calls for parliament dissolution, threatening government collapse
An ultra-Orthodox Jewish party in Netanyahu's coalition called for the dissolution of the Knesset, signaling imminent government collapse amid the military draft exemption dispute. This announcement heightened market expectations for early elections.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage, ending first phase of cease‑fire
The recovery was viewed as a closure of the most contentious issue of the cease‑fire, sharply reducing speculation of a Knesset dissolution and driving the price up.
Israeli cabinet debates settlement project near Jerusalem
June 30 jumps to 50%12%
Debate over the contentious E1 settlement project signalled internal political friction, nudging the market higher for a June 30 dissolution date.
Ultra-Orthodox parties push to dissolve Knesset over military exemption issue
May 31 plunges to 1%23%
Degel HaTorah and Agudat Yisrael announced their support for dissolving the Knesset due to the coalition's failure to pass a law exempting Haredi yeshiva students from mandatory military service.
UTJ party announces Knesset dissolution bid over military exemption failure
United Torah Judaism announced it would seek to dissolve the Knesset due to coalition's failure to pass a law exempting Haredi yeshiva students from military service, escalating early election prospects.
Ultra-Orthodox parties demand Knesset dissolution over conscription bill failure
The seven-strong United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party announced it would seek to dissolve the Knesset due to the coalition's failure to pass a law enshrining Haredi yeshiva students' exemption from military service.
Israeli cabinet convenes to address rising settler violence in West Bank
June 30 rises to 18%4%
Prime Minister Netanyahu met with security officials to discuss escalating settler violence, highlighting internal security challenges that could impact government stability.
President Herzog mediates possible plea deal for Netanyahu
May 31 dips to 1%3%
Herzog announced mediation talks with Netanyahu to reach a plea deal on his criminal case. The prospect of Netanyahu exiting politics lowered the odds of a very early dissolution, nudging the “May 31” price down to 1 % by May 29.
Ultra-Orthodox parties push to dissolve Knesset over failed military draft bill
The ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party announced its intention to dissolve the Knesset and trigger early elections due to the coalition's failure to pass a law on Haredi military exemptions. This increased the likelihood of early elections and prompted opposition MKs to submit dissolution bills.
Ultra-Orthodox party calls for Knesset dissolution amid military draft dispute
United Torah Judaism, a key ultra-Orthodox faction in Netanyahu's coalition, announced it would seek to dissolve the Knesset due to failure to pass legislation exempting their constituents from military service. This escalated the coalition crisis and increased the likelihood of early elections.
Ultra-Orthodox factions push to dissolve Knesset amid draft exemption dispute
The ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party announced support for dissolving the Knesset due to failure to pass a law exempting yeshiva students from military service, increasing chances of early elections likely in September. This raised market expectations for dissolution and elections before the October deadline.
Netanyahu faces internal coalition pressure over Gaza Board of Peace
June 30 surges to 48%31%
Internal coalition divisions regarding the U.S.-led Board of Peace and the future of Gaza governance created renewed speculation about the government's stability.
Ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party calls to dissolve Knesset over draft exemption law failure
July 31 surges to 69%20%
The United Torah Judaism party announced its intention to seek dissolution of the Knesset due to the coalition's failure to pass a law enshrining the exemption of Haredi yeshiva students from military service, increasing the likelihood of early elections.
Ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism calls to dissolve Knesset over military exemption failure
June 30 surges to 42%24%
The UTJ party announced its intention to seek dissolution of the Knesset due to the coalition's failure to pass a law exempting Haredi yeshiva students from military service, increasing the likelihood of early elections and impacting market prices for June and July dissolution dates.
UTJ leader calls for Knesset dissolution over failed draft‑exemption bill
July 31 surges to 87%43%
UTJ’s spiritual leader Rabbi Dov Lando publicly urged Knesset members to support dissolving the Knesset after the coalition failed to pass a Haredi draft‑exemption law, signalling a break in the governing alliance and raising expectations of an early election.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
June 30 surges to 45%31%
The landmark energy agreement was seen as a major diplomatic win for Netanyahu’s government, increasing confidence that his coalition could survive until a June‑30 dissolution, pushing the price sharply upward.
Ultra-Orthodox parties push to dissolve Knesset over conscription bill failure
Degel HaTorah and other Haredi parties announced they would seek to dissolve the Knesset due to Netanyahu's failure to pass legislation exempting their community from mandatory military service, prompting multiple opposition parties to submit dissolution bills.
Ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party pushes to dissolve Knesset over military conscription law failure
May 31 plunges to 2%22%
On May 12, 2026, the UTJ party announced its intention to seek dissolution of the Knesset due to the coalition's failure to pass legislation exempting Haredi yeshiva students from military service. This increased the likelihood of early elections and influenced market prices for the May 31 dissolution option, which dropped significantly.
Ultra-Orthodox UTJ party pushes to dissolve Knesset over military draft law failure
The ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party announced its intention to seek Knesset dissolution due to the coalition's failure to pass a law exempting Haredi yeshiva students from military service, increasing the likelihood of early elections.
Haredi factions push to dissolve Knesset over military exemption issue
United Torah Judaism party announced a dissolution bill to dissolve the Knesset due to the coalition's failure to pass a law exempting Haredi yeshiva students from military service, escalating political tensions.
Ultra-Orthodox factions push to dissolve Knesset over military exemption law failure
June 15 jumps to 55%5%
United Torah Judaism party announced plans to dissolve the Knesset due to coalition failure to pass military conscription exemption legislation, increasing market expectations for early elections and influencing price movements for June 15 and July 31 outcomes.
UTJ party announces plan to dissolve Knesset over military exemption failure
June 30 jumps to 67%10%
The seven-MK United Torah Judaism faction announced they would seek to dissolve the Knesset due to the coalition's failure to pass a law on Haredi yeshiva student military exemption, prompting multiple dissolution bills.
UTJ backs dissolving the Knesset, raising early‑election odds
June 30 surges to 59%45%
UTJ announced it would push for a dissolution bill because the coalition failed to pass a Haredi‑exemption law. The move signalled a new coalition push toward early elections, lifting market confidence that the Knesset would dissolve before October and sending the June‑30 “Yes” price from 14 % to 59 % over the next two days.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
June 30 surges to 47%29%
Netanyahu approved a historic natural gas export deal to Egypt, signaling efforts to strengthen regional ties and economic stability, which may have bolstered confidence in government continuity and reduced expectations of parliamentary dissolution.
EU Foreign Ministers Unanimously Approve Sanctions on Jewish Settler Groups
May 31 plunges to 1%23%
EU foreign ministers sanctioned Regavim and other settler organizations, cutting off financial ties with Israeli banks and government, marking a major diplomatic escalation in the Israel-Palestine conflict.
EU Foreign Ministers Approve Sanctions on Jewish Settler Organizations
May 31 plunges to 0%24%
The EU imposed sanctions on Regavim and other settler groups, disrupting Israeli settlement expansion and intensifying diplomatic tensions.
Police use water‑cannon on Haredi draft protest in Jerusalem
July 31 dips to 66%3%
Police used water‑cannon to disperse Haredi protesters against draft legislation. The unrest reminded markets of the coalition’s fragility, contributing to a small dip in the “July 31” price on May 26‑27.
UNRWA sites demolished amid escalating tensions
June 30 rises to 15%4%
Israel’s demolition of UNRWA facilities heightened international criticism and dampened expectations of a rapid cease‑fire rollout, pulling the June 30 price down.
Channel 12 poll shows Likud slipping to 42 % support
May 31 plunges to 0%24%
A Channel 12 poll showed Netanyahu’s Likud slipping to 42 % support, heightening doubts about his ability to maintain the coalition and pushing market odds for a May 31 dissolution lower, eventually to zero.
Trump cancels U.S. envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks amid ongoing tensions
June 30 dips to 11%3%
President Trump called off the dispatch of envoys to Pakistan for Iran negotiations, signaling stalled diplomacy. This increased uncertainty in the region, potentially impacting Israeli political stability and parliamentary dissolution timing.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on settler violence in the West Bank
June 30 dips to 40%4%
Prime Minister Netanyahu met with top security officials to address rising Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, signaling government focus on security and internal stability rather than political upheaval. This meeting reassured markets about political continuity, contributing to price declines for early dissolution outcomes.
Israel strikes Iran in June 2025, military conflict intensifies
June 30 dips to 13%4%
The June 2025 Israeli attack on Iran, which was later confirmed by a State of Israel statement, intensified military conflict pressures and contributed to the market's downward trend.
Netanyahu faces renewed calls for early elections amid coalition strain
June 30 plunges to 20%15%
Political analysts warned that coalition fractures could lead to a Knesset dissolution before the June deadline, pushing the June‑30 probability higher again.
UNRWA demolition sparks international criticism and protests
The demolition led to widespread condemnation and protests, increasing domestic political pressure on Netanyahu’s coalition and causing a sharp drop in the market’s confidence that the Knesset would survive until June, pulling the price down sharply.
Israel's 2026 budget survives Knesset's first reading as Netanyahu faces potential snap vote
June 30 dips to 17%3%
The budget passed its first reading after resolving a crisis with ultra-Orthodox coalition partners, but the final approval still needed two more votes before March 31 to avoid early elections.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz, escalating regional conflict
June 30 jumps to 23%6%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard closed the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships, intensifying the Middle East conflict. This heightened regional instability likely influenced Israeli political calculations, affecting market expectations for parliamentary dissolution.
Netanyahu’s coalition files bill to dissolve Knesset amid draft exemption crisis
June 30 surges to 38%24%
On April 16, Netanyahu’s coalition officially submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to control the timing of new elections amid a political crisis over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions. This move signaled the government’s impending collapse and set the stage for elections likely in September or October 2026.
Haredi leaders publicly withdraw support from Netanyahu coalition
June 30 drops to 22%14%
Lithuanian Haredi leaders publicly declared loss of confidence in Netanyahu and the coalition, escalating the political crisis over the draft exemption law. This public rupture increased pressure on the government and contributed to the decision to dissolve the Knesset.
Israeli military conducts strikes targeting Hezbollah militants in Lebanon
June 30 dips to 23%3%
The Israel Defense Forces reported strikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, escalating regional tensions. Such military actions contribute to political instability in Israel, potentially affecting parliamentary decisions including dissolution timing.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage in Gaza, advancing ceasefire phase
June 30 dips to 20%1%
The recovery of the last hostage's remains in Gaza marked a significant step in the ceasefire process, indicating political stability and reducing the likelihood of Knesset dissolution by June 30.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on settler violence in the West Bank
June 30 drops to 12%6%
Prime Minister Netanyahu met with security officials to address rising settler violence in the West Bank, reflecting ongoing internal security challenges that could impact political stability and parliamentary dynamics.
Israel‑Egypt talks signal possible Rafah reopening soon
Talks about reopening the Rafah crossing were interpreted as a sign of de‑escalation, prompting a modest price rebound.
Knesset dissolution first reading vote set for Monday
June 30 rises to 20%3%
The Knesset scheduled the first reading of the dissolution vote, indicating potential early elections due to coalition instability and budget concerns.
Israel passes death‑penalty law amid ICC pressure
June 30 drops to 52%5%
A report linking a new death‑penalty law to ICC scrutiny raised concerns over Israel’s international standing, slightly lowering confidence in a swift September election and pulling the “June 30” price down marginally.
UN experts call for suspension of EU-Israel trade agreement over human rights violations
June 30 drops to 16%5%
UN experts urged the EU to suspend its trade agreement with Israel due to serious human rights violations, increasing international pressure on Israel amid domestic political instability.
UN peacekeepers report surge in Israeli‑Lebanon incidents
The report of increased clashes near the Lebanese border revived concerns about broader conflict, pulling prices down sharply.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in the West Bank
June 30 drops to 12%8%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with top security officials to address escalating Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, including attacks causing injuries and property damage. The meeting highlighted ongoing security challenges but did not indicate any parliamentary dissolution, reflecting continued political tensions without triggering a government collapse.
Iran protests erupt over currency plunge and economic woes
June 30 drops to 11%6%
Widespread protests in Iran over economic conditions and currency collapse increased regional instability, potentially influencing Israeli political dynamics and market perceptions of parliamentary dissolution likelihood.
Israel approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
June 30 rises to 20%2%
The approval of a major gas deal with Egypt was seen as a stabilizing factor for the government, reducing the immediate likelihood of a parliamentary dissolution.
UNRWA sites demolished amid heightened tensions
June 30 plunges to 10%59%
The demolition of UNRWA facilities heightened diplomatic friction, reducing optimism about a swift political resolution and pulling the market price down.
Hezbollah‑Israel cease‑fire extended by three weeks
June 30 plunges to 35%21%
The extension reduced the immediate security threat on Israel’s northern front, lowering the perceived need for a political reset and pulling the June‑30 price down.
UN peacekeepers report surge in Israeli‑Lebanon incidents
June 30 jumps to 38%10%
Increased border incidents raised regional tension, briefly reviving concerns about domestic political pressure and a possible Knesset dissolution, causing a short‑term price rise.
Israel fires mortar into Gaza residential area, wounding at least 10
June 30 drops to 20%12%
An Israeli mortar strike into a Gaza residential area caused civilian casualties, exacerbating tensions and complicating ceasefire progress, affecting political outlook.
Iranian missile strikes hit Israeli city Bnei Brak amid regional tensions
June 30 dips to 21%1%
Iranian missile strikes in Israel heightened regional tensions but did not trigger political instability sufficient to prompt Knesset dissolution, maintaining low market probability for dissolution by June 30.
Knesset resumes Haredi draft bill debates amid dissolution risk
June 30 plunges to 38%17%
Parliament resumed debates on the ultra‑Orthodox draft exemption bill on 1 April 2026, heightening coalition tensions. Analysts linked the renewed draft fight to a higher probability of an early dissolution, which helped lift the June‑30 price in early April.
Israeli Knesset passes first reading of 2026 budget, averting immediate dissolution
The Knesset passed the first reading of the 2026 budget, temporarily averting automatic dissolution. However, ongoing disputes over the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption law continued to threaten coalition stability and the possibility of early elections.
Knesset approves largest-ever 2026 state budget, averting early elections
June 30 jumps to 29%12%
The Knesset approved the 2026 state budget in final readings just before the March 31 deadline, preventing automatic dissolution. The budget included record defense spending and significant allocations to ultra-Orthodox institutions, reflecting coalition compromises amid ongoing war.
Knesset passes controversial death penalty expansion amid coalition tensions
June 30 dips to 38%1%
The Knesset passed a law expanding the death penalty for Palestinians convicted of terrorism, reflecting ongoing coalition tensions and legislative activity amid the political crisis. This event underscored the fragile government situation but did not directly trigger dissolution.
Knesset passes largest state budget in history before deadline
June 30 jumps to 47%13%
The Knesset passed the 850 billion shekel 2026 budget on March 30, just before the March 31 deadline that would have triggered automatic dissolution. This passage demonstrated coalition survival and delayed the need for early elections.
Knesset passes 850 billion shekel budget, averting automatic dissolution
June 30 plunges to 23%34%
The 850‑billion‑shekel state budget was passed on 30 March 2026, averting the automatic dissolution that would have occurred if the budget missed the 31 March deadline. The budget’s approval reduced the perceived risk of an early dissolution, contributing to a price drop for the June‑30 outcome later in March‑April.
Israeli parliament passes controversial death penalty law for Palestinians
June 30 surges to 58%19%
The Knesset passed a law imposing the death penalty for Palestinians convicted of murdering Israelis, reflecting the far-right coalition's influence and adding to political tensions ahead of potential dissolution.
UTJ parties meet with Netanyahu to coordinate dissolution strategy
June 30 rises to 44%4%
Ultra-Orthodox parties met with Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss supporting a coalition-sponsored dissolution bill rather than opposition-led legislation, suggesting coordination behind the scenes on election timing and terms.
Shas leader opposes Haredi exemption bill ahead of elections
June 30 plunges to 33%26%
Shas chairman Aryeh Deri publicly opposed passing the Haredi‑military‑exemption bill before elections, raising doubts about the coalition’s ability to stay together and briefly pulling the June‑30 “Yes” price down to the low‑40 % range.
Lebanon and Israel hold first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington
June 30 drops to 29%8%
Lebanon and Israel engaged in historic direct talks brokered by the US amid ongoing conflict with Hezbollah, signaling potential de-escalation but no immediate political changes in Israel's parliament. This event influenced market sentiment on political stability affecting the June 30 outcome.
Market price drops to 21% as budget approval deadline approaches
June 30 drops to 21%12%
With the March 31 budget deadline approaching and the budget still needing two more approvals, market confidence in dissolution risk decreased, leading to a price drop to 21%.
Knesset budget approval deadline extended to avoid automatic dissolution
June 30 plunges to 17%23%
The Knesset extended the budget approval deadline by 120 days, preventing automatic dissolution under Basic Law: The Knesset, which requires budget approval by the end of March or within 145 days of a new government.
Netanyahu seeks to pass budget to stave off snap vote
June 30 rises to 55%2%
Reuters reported Netanyahu’s push to pass a defense‑heavy budget to avoid a budget‑failure trigger that would force early elections. The news dampened expectations of a September dissolution and pulled the “June 30” and “June 15” prices down modestly.
Israeli UNRWA sites in East Jerusalem targeted and demolished
June 30 plunges to 17%23%
Israel enforced a new law banning UNRWA operations in East Jerusalem, escalating tensions and reflecting ongoing political strife that could impact government stability and parliamentary actions.
Israeli cabinet convenes on settler violence in the West Bank
June 30 drops to 28%12%
The Israeli cabinet met to address rising settler violence in the West Bank, reflecting government focus on security and internal stability rather than dissolving the Knesset, contributing to a decline in dissolution probability.
UTJ leaders meet Netanyahu to coordinate dissolution strategy
June 30 rises to 55%2%
UTJ party leaders met with Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss coordination on the dissolution of the Knesset, fueling speculation about potential cooperation between Haredi parties and the coalition.
Ultra-Orthodox parties back coalition-sponsored Knesset dissolution bill
June 30 jumps to 58%5%
The ultra-Orthodox parties preferred a coalition-sponsored bill over opposition-led legislation, fueling speculation about coordinated timing and terms for potential elections. This early political maneuvering influenced market expectations for a potentially earlier election.
UNRWA sites demolished after Knesset legislation
June 30 drops to 56%10%
The Knesset’s enforcement of a law banning UNRWA operations signalled a hardening political stance, reviving concerns of internal instability and nudging the June‑30 probability upward again.
Israel strikes Hezbollah health center in Lebanon, killing 12 medical workers
June 30 surges to 62%23%
A deadly Israeli strike on a Hezbollah-run health center in Lebanon intensified the conflict, raising security concerns that could influence political stability in Israel.
Gadi Eisenkot announces resignation from Knesset over leadership election differences
June 30 drops to 40%10%
Eisenkot announced he would resign from the Knesset and not participate in the next election, citing disagreements over how to hold a leadership election for Benny Gantz's National Unity party.
Netanyahu and Smotrich announce shelving of Haredi draft exemption bill to pass budget
June 30 drops to 26%5%
To secure passage of the 2026 state budget and avoid government collapse, Netanyahu and Finance Minister Smotrich announced setting aside the controversial Haredi draft exemption bill, reflecting coalition compromises amid war and budget pressures.
Knesset passes military exemption bill after marathon committee debate
June 30 jumps to 67%10%
The contentious military exemption bill for Haredi yeshiva students passed its second reading after months of committee debate, a key issue for coalition stability and potential dissolution.
Israel launches large‑scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
Renewed military activity after the gas deal caused a sharp sell‑off as traders feared distraction from domestic politics.
Israel approves $35 billion natural‑gas export deal to Egypt
The landmark economic deal was seen as a boost to Israel’s fiscal outlook, reducing perceived risk of a parliamentary dissolution.
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
June 30 surges to 66%27%
The military operation to find the last hostage was a critical condition for moving to the next phase of the ceasefire, causing a spike in market uncertainty regarding the government's future.
Knesset passes 2026 state budget, averts snap election
The budget approval passed after coalition negotiations, preventing immediate dissolution and early elections, which reduced market speculation about Knesset dissolution.
Israel approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
June 30 drops to 28%14%
The major economic agreement was seen as stabilising Israel’s government, reducing dissolution risk and pushing the market lower.
Knesset budget vote uncertainty peaks as Haredi factions threaten to block budget
June 30 dips to 67%2%
With the budget passing its first reading, market uncertainty about the March 31 deadline for final budget approvals remained high, keeping the dissolution risk elevated.
U.S. envoys meet Netanyahu to discuss cease‑fire progress
June 30 plunges to 50%23%
A high‑level U.S. delegation met with Netanyahu, signaling strong American backing for a swift transition to the second phase, which boosted the June 30 outcome price.
Israel announces recovery of last hostage’s remains
June 30 surges to 69%39%
The confirmation that the remains of the last hostage were recovered removed a major political hurdle, leading to a sharp rise in the market’s confidence for a dissolution before June 30.
Knesset passes judicial reform law after 67-vote vote
June 30 plunges to 50%20%
The judicial reform law passed in the Knesset in late March 2025, with 67 votes in favor, following a long-standing reform effort that had sparked widespread protests.
Israel’s Knesset passes law banning UNRWA operations
June 30 drops to 56%13%
The Knesset approved legislation severing ties with UNRWA, heightening political tensions and prompting speculation that the parliament could be dissolved early to avoid further controversy, boosting the June‑30 option.
Federal judge bars Arizona from prosecuting Kalshi prediction market operator
June 30 surges to 66%25%
A federal judge temporarily blocked Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, a prediction market platform, highlighting regulatory uncertainty that may influence market perceptions of political event outcomes including Israeli parliamentary dissolution.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
The historic gas agreement was presented as a boost to Israel’s economy and regional standing, improving the governing coalition’s prospects and reducing immediate pressure for a snap election, which helped lift the June‑30 probability.
Knesset advances dissolution bill in preliminary reading with unanimous support
June 30 surges to 63%21%
The Knesset approved a bill to dissolve itself in a preliminary reading with 110 votes in favor and none opposed, marking the first legislative step toward early elections. This raised market expectations for dissolution but required further readings before becoming law.
Lebanon and Israel hold first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington
June 30 jumps to 57%11%
Lebanon and Israel engaged in direct diplomatic talks brokered by the US, focusing on conflict resolution and regional stability, which reduced political uncertainty in Israel and lowered expectations of Knesset dissolution by June 30.
Knesset passes first reading of 2026 state budget after Haredi coalition crisis resolved
June 30 surges to 69%29%
The Knesset passed the first reading of the 2026 state budget by 62 votes to 55, resolving the Haredi coalition crisis and reducing the automatic dissolution risk. This led to a market price peak at 69%.
IDF Under Intense Pressure Amid Multiple Fronts Conflict
June 30 drops to 41%12%
Defense Minister Israel Katz announced establishing a 'security zone' up to the Litani River in Lebanon, while opposition leader Yair Lapid warned the IDF was stretched beyond breaking point.
IDF Under Intense Pressure Amid Multiple Fronts Conflict
June 15 drops to 40%10%
The IDF faced mounting pressure from multiple fronts, with defense leaders warning of stretched military capabilities, contributing to political instability.
Knesset advances controversial bills amid dissolution talks
June 30 surges to 66%24%
The Knesset advanced bills including one to split the attorney general's role and another on communications reform, while the dissolution bill awaited further readings, reflecting legislative turmoil and impacting market confidence in June 30 dissolution timing.
Knesset passes first reading of 2026 state budget after coalition crisis resolution
June 30 jumps to 70%14%
The budget passed its first reading after resolving a crisis with ultra-Orthodox coalition partners, but the final approval still needed two more votes before March 31 to avoid early elections.
Netanyahu attempts to pass Haredi draft exemption law to delay Knesset dissolution
June 30 drops to 34%6%
Prime Minister Netanyahu sought to pass a controversial draft exemption bill for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to postpone the Knesset's dissolution. The ultra-Orthodox parties opposed the bill and pushed for early elections, increasing political instability and market volatility.
Israel launches large‑scale operation to locate last Gaza hostage
June 30 surges to 54%22%
Israel announced a major search effort for the final hostage, signalling progress toward the cease‑fire’s second phase and raising expectations that the Knesset might be dissolved by June 30 to enable a new government formation.
U.S. mediators meet Netanyahu to discuss next steps of cease‑fire
High‑level U.S. engagement was interpreted as support for the status quo, helping the price recover modestly.
U.S.‑brokered ceasefire faces violation after mortar strike wounds Israeli soldier
June 30 plunges to 42%18%
A mortar incident in Gaza was blamed on Hamas, prompting Israeli accusations of cease‑fire breach and reviving speculation about political fallout, causing a price dip.
Hezbollah replaces top security official amid internal restructuring
Leadership changes in Hezbollah heightened regional tension, prompting market participants to reassess the stability of Israel’s parliament.
Israeli officials report setbacks in hostage search, delaying cease‑fire phase two
June 30 plunges to 24%41%
A reported setback in locating the final hostage lowered expectations for political moves, causing the market price to drop sharply.
Israeli military launches operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
June 30 drops to 35%5%
Israel intensified efforts to recover the remains of the last hostage in Gaza, reflecting ongoing conflict and political pressures that may affect government stability and parliamentary decisions.
Netanyahu says he still prefers elections on original October 27 date
June 30 plunges to 33%22%
Reports that Netanyahu preferred to keep the scheduled October 27 election date, despite coalition pressure, dampened short‑term expectations of an early dissolution, contributing to a modest price decline for the June‑30 outcome in mid‑February.
UN Chief Condemns New Israeli West Bank Annexation Measures
June 30 drops to 41%7%
UN Secretary-General António Guterres denounced Israel's land acquisition policies in the West Bank as illegal and a violation of international law, undermining diplomatic stability.
Ultra-Orthodox leaders call for Knesset dissolution amid conscription dispute
June 30 drops to 24%11%
Rabbi Dov Lando, spiritual leader of the Degel HaTorah party, ordered his faction to support immediate dissolution of the Knesset due to loss of trust in Prime Minister Netanyahu over the failed military conscription exemption law. This escalated coalition tensions and increased market uncertainty about early elections.
Israel strikes Hezbollah’s civilian and military wings in Lebanon, escalating conflict
June 30 jumps to 45%10%
Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah's infrastructure in Lebanon escalated regional tensions, potentially impacting domestic political stability and parliamentary prospects.
Israel demolishes UNRWA sites in East Jerusalem amid legal battle
The Israeli Foreign Ministry confirmed demolition of UNRWA facilities, heightening diplomatic tensions and raising speculation that the government might call early elections to consolidate support, nudging the market toward a later dissolution date.
UNRWA sites targeted for demolition in East Jerusalem
The demolition intensified criticism of the government and raised speculation about political fallout, contributing to a price drop.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
June 30 plunges to 40%15%
Netanyahu met with security officials to address increasing Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, highlighting internal political tensions and security concerns that could impact government stability and parliamentary actions.
Israeli cabinet debates Rafah crossing opening after hostage recovery
June 30 plunges to 40%26%
Following the recovery of the last hostage’s remains, the cabinet’s discussion of opening Rafah suggested a de‑escalation, causing the market to pull back on the June‑30 outcome.
Coalition advances key budget bill amid Haredi faction tensions
June 30 plunges to 38%21%
The coalition split the Arrangements Law into two bills to facilitate budget approval, but ultra-Orthodox parties threatened to block the budget vote over conscription exemptions. This raised doubts about timely budget passage, lowering the market's confidence in avoiding dissolution.
Ultra-Orthodox protest against military conscription in Bnei Brak
June 30 drops to 34%11%
A protest by Ultra-Orthodox Jewish men against military conscription in Bnei Brak intensified coalition tensions, adding pressure on the government to resolve the draft exemption issue before budget votes.
Market drops to 39% as budget passage becomes more certain
Price fell to 39% on Feb 8, indicating market reassessment after the first reading passed. The market remained volatile as the March deadline approached, with price fluctuations reflecting ongoing uncertainty about the budget's final passage.
Israeli Security Cabinet Approves West Bank Annexation Decrees
June 30 drops to 48%5%
The Israeli Security Cabinet adopted measures easing Jewish settler land purchases and expanding Israeli enforcement in the West Bank, accelerating annexation efforts and triggering international condemnation.
Israeli Security Cabinet Approves West Bank Annexation Decrees
Israel's Security Cabinet passed measures easing Jewish settler land purchases and expanding Israeli enforcement in West Bank areas, accelerating annexation efforts and triggering international backlash.
Netanyahu negotiates with ultra‑Orthodox leaders to postpone Knesset dissolution
June 30 dips to 54%1%
Early February speculation that the dissolution bill might be delayed as Netanyahu negotiated with ultra‑Orthodox partners led to a brief dip in the June‑30 price, reflected by the fall from 55 % on 1 Feb to 54 % on 5 Feb.
Political tensions rise over ultra-Orthodox military conscription exemptions
June 30 jumps to 65%13%
Growing disputes within Netanyahu's coalition over military draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews increased political instability, causing market uncertainty about Knesset dissolution timing.
Israel launches large‑scale operation to locate last Gaza hostage
June 30 plunges to 41%17%
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a military search for the final hostage, raising hopes the cease‑fire’s second phase would proceed and increasing speculation that the Knesset might be dissolved by June 30.
Israeli cabinet discusses opening Rafah crossing after hostage recovery
June 30 jumps to 65%11%
Cabinet talks on reopening the Rafah border signaled progress in the cease‑fire, prompting a surge in market confidence that the Knesset might be dissolved to enable political restructuring.
Netanyahu’s corruption trial resumes, raising political uncertainty
June 30 jumps to 66%8%
The resumption of Netanyahu’s high‑profile corruption trial heightened speculation that political opponents might push for an early Knesset dissolution, pushing the June‑30 probability upward.
Israel announces large‑scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
The operation was presented as a decisive step toward ending the first phase of the cease‑fire, raising expectations that the Knesset would not be dissolved.
Large‑scale Israeli operation launched to locate final Gaza hostage
June 30 surges to 60%15%
The operation signaled a possible escalation and uncertainty about the cease‑fire timeline, temporarily raising expectations of political instability and a Knesset dissolution, reflected in a price rise.
Knesset passes first reading of 2026 state budget amid coalition crisis
June 30 plunges to 38%16%
The Knesset passed the first reading of the 2026 state budget by a narrow margin, resolving a crisis with ultra-Orthodox coalition partners temporarily but requiring two more approvals by March 31 to avoid automatic dissolution and early elections.
Knesset narrowly passes first reading of 2026 state budget
June 30 rises to 52%4%
The Knesset approved the first reading of the 2026 budget by a narrow margin, signaling initial progress but leaving uncertainty about final approval. This vote temporarily increased confidence that the Knesset would not dissolve by the June 30 deadline.
Israel returns 15 Palestinian bodies to Gaza, marking last exchange under ceasefire phase one
June 30 dips to 39%4%
Israel's return of Palestinian bodies marked the completion of the first phase of the ceasefire, signaling progress but also highlighting ongoing tensions affecting political stability.
Israel’s cabinet meets to discuss opening Rafah crossing after hostage recovery
The cabinet convened to consider reopening the Rafah border following the return of the last hostage, signalling a move toward normalcy and reducing dissolution risk.
Coalition submits bill to dissolve Knesset amid ultra-Orthodox draft bill crisis
June 30 rises to 54%1%
Coalition whip Ofir Katz submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset with full coalition backing following a crisis over the ultra-Orthodox draft bill, signaling a move toward early elections and causing market shifts in June 30 outcome probabilities.
Israeli Knesset faces budget approval deadline amid coalition tensions
The Knesset was under pressure to pass the 2026 state budget by March 31 to avoid automatic dissolution. The coalition was strained by disputes over military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox parties, threatening government stability and early elections. This uncertainty contributed to market volatility.
Explainer on automatic Knesset dissolution if 2026 budget not approved by March 31
Israeli law requires the Knesset to pass the state budget by March 31, 2026, or it will be automatically dissolved, leading to elections roughly three months later. This legal framework set the baseline for market expectations about potential dissolution.
Israeli Knesset resumes debates on ultra-Orthodox draft bill amid coalition crisis
June 30 jumps to 51%11%
The resumption of debates on the controversial Haredi draft bill increased the risk of Knesset dissolution by exacerbating coalition tensions, pushing the market probability for dissolution by June 30 from 40% to over 50%. This highlighted the fragility of Netanyahu's government and the potential for early elections.
Opposition parties submit bills to dissolve Knesset ahead of 2026 budget vote
June 30 rises to 55%2%
Ahead of the first reading of the 2026 state budget, opposition parties Yesh Atid and Blue and White submitted multiple bills to dissolve the 25th Knesset, signaling political pressure and instability related to the budget and coalition tensions.
Israel's Knesset passes 2026 budget first reading amid political crisis
The Knesset approved the first reading of the 2026 state budget by 62-55 vote margin, resolving a crisis with Haredi coalition partners. This reduced immediate threat of early elections, causing price to drop from 53% to 48% on Jan 29.
Israel launches large‑scale operation to locate last Gaza hostage
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a major military effort to recover the final Israeli hostage, a step seen as prerequisite for moving to the second phase of the U.S.‑brokered ceasefire, which could delay any parliamentary dissolution until after the June‑30 deadline.
Israel launches large‑scale operation to locate last Gaza hostage
June 30 jumps to 60%7%
The Israeli military began a focused search for the final hostage, raising hopes that the cease‑fire’s second phase could proceed, which temporarily boosted the probability of a Knesset dissolution before the deadline.
Israel's 2026 budget approval deadline looms as Knesset faces dissolution risk
Under Basic Law: The Knesset, failure to approve the state budget by March 31 would automatically dissolve the Knesset and trigger early elections. This uncertainty drove the market price to 53%.
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