The Justice Department closed its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on April 24, 2026, without filing charges after reviewing allegations tied to headquarters renovations and congressional testimony, shifting oversight to the central bank's inspector general. With no active federal probe, indictments, or public signals of imminent action and roughly four weeks remaining until the June 30 resolution date, traders assign a 98% implied probability to "No." The Federal Reserve's institutional independence and the high evidentiary bar for federal charges against a sitting chair reinforce this consensus. Late-breaking developments such as newly disclosed evidence or a reopened formal inquiry remain theoretically possible but lack supporting signals in recent weeks.